Mossad, vaccine, and IAF planes: Three observations from this week
How do Israel's elections affect the selection of the IAF's next planes? Will the struggle over the position of head of the Mossad resume? And what will be done with the Israeli COVID-19 vaccine? A column by Amir Rapaport
Amir Rapaport
| 07/02/2021
The F-15EX. Photo: Boeing
Israel's fourth round of elections in two years (with a significant amount of COVID-19 news) is dominating the Israeli media's agenda and overshadowing fateful matters such as behind-the-scenes contacts regarding the renewal of the nuclear agreement by the world's powers, including the US, with Iran.
Amid the overall cacophony, here are three observations:
1. Aircraft. The election campaign that kicked off without passage of the state budget is raising the frustration in the IDF to new heights, mainly as far as deals for acquisition of planes that have been delayed for a long time.
Among three deals on the agenda, the most urgent one is actually for acquisition of refueling planes to replace the aging "Ram" tankers based on converted Boeing passenger planes. Here there is no question about the type of plane. The IAF requests to speed up the delivery of the new K-46 planes, which are being manufactured these days by Boeing mainly for the Americans themselves.
On the issue of new helicopters, the struggle is between the new variant of Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky (called "Yasour" by the IAF) and Boeing's Chinook (perhaps in combination with a certain number of V-22 hybrid helicopter-airplanes). The IAF intends to acquire the Sikorsky. The most intense battle is taking place regarding the IAF's next two fighter plane squadrons, between the F-15EX, with its powerful computer (instead of the outdated versions of F-15 bombers that are being taken out of service at the age of 40), and the F-35, in addition to the two F-35 squadrons that were already acquired.
Regarding the future fighter jet, the first test flight of the F-15EX, which took place on Monday in St. Louis, was watched with special interest in the IAF. The flight, which was successful, gave the green light for the U.S. Air Force to make the first order for the first seven planes, and accordingly, the IAF can start to receive details on the performance of the plane, on paper and in reality.
One way or another, what is delaying at least some of the aircraft deals is certainly the election campaign. On one hand, there is an argument between the Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry regarding the manner in which the commitment to the planes should be written in the books, for the period following the expiration of the current 10-year American defense aid agreement (in 2027. There is no chance of reaching any understanding between the Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry these days), and as usual, issues of honor. There is little chance that the prime minister will allow Defense Minister Benny Gantz to sign any prestigious agreement amid an election campaign, and vice versa.
2. The head of the Mossad. And this is connected to the elections too. Is the appointment of "D" to the position of head of the Mossad final? As it turns out, no. The appointment, which is supposed to take place in the summer, was announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about two months ago, and recently approved by the government's committee for appointment of senior officials in public service. But then the election campaign began, and the appointment could certainly be changed.
The selection of the head of the Mossad is a privilege of the prime minister. Netanyahu chose "D", who is the deputy of the current head, Yossi Cohen, on the basis of his long career of senior roles in operations and at the headquarters.
If Netanyahu is still the prime minister this summer, the appointment of "D" is assured. But if he loses his seat, there will once more be the possibility of the appointment of "A", who served in several operational divisions of the Mossad, including "Tzomet", "Keisaria" and "Keshet", and served as deputy head in the years 2015-2018.
Incidentally, the appointment of the next head of the Israel Security Agency is supposed to take place in May, and that too will be very influenced by the question of who will be the next prime minister, but in the case of "the service" there has not been announcement of an appointment that could be changed. If Netanyahu remains in his job, there is a very big chance that the head of the National Security Council, Meir Ben-Shabbat, will win the job.
3. Late vaccine. Many people wonder what will be the fate of the COVID-19 vaccine that is being developed at the Israel Institute for Biological Research, in the city of Ness Ziona, with an investment of 100 million shekels. As was written in this column during the last year, the development proceeded with appalling slowness that was imposed on the basis of overly conservative rules of the Health Ministry, even though hundreds of people are dying each month from the virus itself, not from the testing. By comparison, if Russia, China, and even Pfizer and Moderna had conducted their testing with the same conservativeness imposed in Israel, the world would still be waiting for the first vaccine.
From the beginning, it was clear that the Israeli vaccine would arrive several months late because of the pace of the Israeli Health Ministry's "Helsinki Committee", among other reasons.
Development of the vaccine at the Israel Institute for Biological Research. Photo: Ministry of Defense Spokesperson's Office
Well, as I warned, we are now exactly in these months. There are already vaccines, but not ours. However, the development of the Israeli vaccine continues to proceed. As of now, it will arrive in June. These days, the vaccine is about to enter the second stage of testing with about 1,000 people, and has encountered a problem. It is very difficult to find adult volunteers over the age of 60 for the vaccine because all of those adults who are interested in being vaccinated prefer the vaccine that is already available on the market.
Assuming that the biological institute succeeds in overcoming this difficulty and the Israeli vaccine is approved this summer by the US Food and Drug Administration, it may be offered to Israel's allies, perhaps even to European countries whose pace of vaccination is terribly slow. Afterwards, in the coming years, it will be administered to Israeli citizens, apparently as an annual booster shot as is done with flu shots. The vaccine will be manufactured by the biological institute itself, in the absence of any other commercial or governmental vaccine factory in Israel.
How do Israel's elections affect the selection of the IAF's next planes? Will the struggle over the position of head of the Mossad resume? And what will be done with the Israeli COVID-19 vaccine? A column by Amir Rapaport
The F-15EX. Photo: Boeing
Israel's fourth round of elections in two years (with a significant amount of COVID-19 news) is dominating the Israeli media's agenda and overshadowing fateful matters such as behind-the-scenes contacts regarding the renewal of the nuclear agreement by the world's powers, including the US, with Iran.
Amid the overall cacophony, here are three observations:
1. Aircraft. The election campaign that kicked off without passage of the state budget is raising the frustration in the IDF to new heights, mainly as far as deals for acquisition of planes that have been delayed for a long time.
Among three deals on the agenda, the most urgent one is actually for acquisition of refueling planes to replace the aging "Ram" tankers based on converted Boeing passenger planes. Here there is no question about the type of plane. The IAF requests to speed up the delivery of the new K-46 planes, which are being manufactured these days by Boeing mainly for the Americans themselves.
On the issue of new helicopters, the struggle is between the new variant of Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky (called "Yasour" by the IAF) and Boeing's Chinook (perhaps in combination with a certain number of V-22 hybrid helicopter-airplanes). The IAF intends to acquire the Sikorsky. The most intense battle is taking place regarding the IAF's next two fighter plane squadrons, between the F-15EX, with its powerful computer (instead of the outdated versions of F-15 bombers that are being taken out of service at the age of 40), and the F-35, in addition to the two F-35 squadrons that were already acquired.
Regarding the future fighter jet, the first test flight of the F-15EX, which took place on Monday in St. Louis, was watched with special interest in the IAF. The flight, which was successful, gave the green light for the U.S. Air Force to make the first order for the first seven planes, and accordingly, the IAF can start to receive details on the performance of the plane, on paper and in reality.
One way or another, what is delaying at least some of the aircraft deals is certainly the election campaign. On one hand, there is an argument between the Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry regarding the manner in which the commitment to the planes should be written in the books, for the period following the expiration of the current 10-year American defense aid agreement (in 2027. There is no chance of reaching any understanding between the Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry these days), and as usual, issues of honor. There is little chance that the prime minister will allow Defense Minister Benny Gantz to sign any prestigious agreement amid an election campaign, and vice versa.
2. The head of the Mossad. And this is connected to the elections too. Is the appointment of "D" to the position of head of the Mossad final? As it turns out, no. The appointment, which is supposed to take place in the summer, was announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about two months ago, and recently approved by the government's committee for appointment of senior officials in public service. But then the election campaign began, and the appointment could certainly be changed.
The selection of the head of the Mossad is a privilege of the prime minister. Netanyahu chose "D", who is the deputy of the current head, Yossi Cohen, on the basis of his long career of senior roles in operations and at the headquarters.
If Netanyahu is still the prime minister this summer, the appointment of "D" is assured. But if he loses his seat, there will once more be the possibility of the appointment of "A", who served in several operational divisions of the Mossad, including "Tzomet", "Keisaria" and "Keshet", and served as deputy head in the years 2015-2018.
Incidentally, the appointment of the next head of the Israel Security Agency is supposed to take place in May, and that too will be very influenced by the question of who will be the next prime minister, but in the case of "the service" there has not been announcement of an appointment that could be changed. If Netanyahu remains in his job, there is a very big chance that the head of the National Security Council, Meir Ben-Shabbat, will win the job.
3. Late vaccine. Many people wonder what will be the fate of the COVID-19 vaccine that is being developed at the Israel Institute for Biological Research, in the city of Ness Ziona, with an investment of 100 million shekels. As was written in this column during the last year, the development proceeded with appalling slowness that was imposed on the basis of overly conservative rules of the Health Ministry, even though hundreds of people are dying each month from the virus itself, not from the testing. By comparison, if Russia, China, and even Pfizer and Moderna had conducted their testing with the same conservativeness imposed in Israel, the world would still be waiting for the first vaccine.
From the beginning, it was clear that the Israeli vaccine would arrive several months late because of the pace of the Israeli Health Ministry's "Helsinki Committee", among other reasons.
Development of the vaccine at the Israel Institute for Biological Research. Photo: Ministry of Defense Spokesperson's Office
Well, as I warned, we are now exactly in these months. There are already vaccines, but not ours. However, the development of the Israeli vaccine continues to proceed. As of now, it will arrive in June. These days, the vaccine is about to enter the second stage of testing with about 1,000 people, and has encountered a problem. It is very difficult to find adult volunteers over the age of 60 for the vaccine because all of those adults who are interested in being vaccinated prefer the vaccine that is already available on the market.
Assuming that the biological institute succeeds in overcoming this difficulty and the Israeli vaccine is approved this summer by the US Food and Drug Administration, it may be offered to Israel's allies, perhaps even to European countries whose pace of vaccination is terribly slow. Afterwards, in the coming years, it will be administered to Israeli citizens, apparently as an annual booster shot as is done with flu shots. The vaccine will be manufactured by the biological institute itself, in the absence of any other commercial or governmental vaccine factory in Israel.
