Regardless of the Day After, the IDF Already Has Control Over the Gaza Strip
The exchanges of fire in the northern arena persist, indicating both sides' attempts to improve positions for any future confrontation, while the General Staff is seeking solutions to increase the number of mandatory recruits. Amir Rapaport weighs in on this past week’s events
Amir Rapaport
| 27/01/2024
Everyone knows that it's not advisable to show excessive enthusiasm in any negotiation. Whether it's a deal to purchase a used car, a house, or even a small item, the party perceived as overly eager to close the deal loses its bargaining power.
Now, think about the most complex negotiations in the history of the State of Israel and perhaps in world history, between Israel and Hamas. At the forefront are the lives of over one hundred Israeli hostages. Unfortunately, we already know that about 30 of the hostages are no longer alive; most were already dead when they were abducted. The future of the entire State of Israel and the fate of the Hamas organization and the Gaza Strip will also be significantly influenced by any hostage deal.
Certainly, it is not advisable to convey that Israel is willing to pay any price for the hostages and even provide the Hamas leadership with assurances for their continued lives as they demand, upfront. That is why it is necessary to treat with caution any leak and every word spoken this week in the media regarding the negotiations for the hostages – whether it's from a reputable source like The Washington Post, Israeli media, or Arab press.
It is also possible that the reported crisis between Israel and the primary mediator in the previous deal, Qatar, could be artificial, stemming from negotiation tactics or political reasons within Israel.
Fire exchange in the north
When every publication or statement can be manipulative, it's better to focus on what is happening on the ground. Let's start specifically in the north: there, the intensity of the clashes between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran is declining, but the 'quality' of each attack is escalating.
On the Israeli side, this week is credited with two significant targeted killings, following previous assassinations of senior Iranian figures, including the prominent Iranian official Reza Mosawi on Syrian soil and Salah al-'Aruri, in the heart of Dahiyeh in Beirut.
This time, the Arab media claims that Israel targeted five senior Iranian officials with three precise missiles launched from the air. Among them was an intelligence officer with a rank equivalent to a Brigadier General, precisely as they gathered for a meeting in an apartment in the Al-Mazzeh neighborhood in Damascus.
If true, this marks another significant intelligence infiltration on our part. The senior officials who were targeted were responsible for the intelligence of the Iranian Quds Force in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, as well as coordinating the activities of the Iranian Axis in this region.
Not a day passed, and Israel was also attributed with the targeted killing of two more senior figures while they were traveling in a car near the city of Tyre. Their precise identities were not disclosed. In contrast, Iran itself claimed to have launched missiles at a “Mossad base” in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region in northern Iraq.
On Hezbollah's side, precision missiles were launched at the Israeli Air Force control unit in Meron for the second time in a month. UAVs were also sent toward distant targets, such as a defense industry plant.
The drones were activated and the air force control unit’s functionality was not harmed. The interceptions were also successful thanks to a new system developed during the war under the Northern Command and the Air Force's air defense system to cope with the growing threat of unmanned aerial vehicles.
The exchange of hostilities is ongoing. This past week, Israel attacked a facility jointly operated by Iran and Hezbollah. The final word between the sides has yet to be said.
The attacks are within the framework of signals transmitted by Israel and Hezbollah, with the backing of Iran. Both sides demonstrate their willingness to escalate the stakes in each subsequent attack and even slide into a full-scale war, even if no side is interested in a war at this time.
Simultaneously, preparations continue for the anticipated escalation, likely to erupt in the course of 2024. Apparently, one of Israel's objectives in its operations is to thwart the transfer of game-changing weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.
Last week, I wrote in this column about concerns regarding Hezbollah's acquisition of the ground-to-ground missile named Zolfaghar, with a range of up to 700 kilometers and a warhead weighing half a ton, featuring precision navigation capabilities with an accuracy of up to 60 meters.
Another dangerous weapon that may appear on the scene in the upcoming or preceding conflict is the coastal missile Yakhont (P-800 Oniks), which can travel towards a target at a distance of hundreds of kilometers, at a speed four times the speed of sound.
This missile skims the water, meaning it travels just above the surface, making it very difficult to detect at its high speed. It carries a 300-kilogram warhead and can pose a threat to naval missile ships and gas rigs, particularly the “Karish” rig off the coast of Lebanon.
The Navy is monitoring developments. Meanwhile, the “Karish” continues to operate as usual. The Navy remains uninvolved in another maritime theater far from Israel, where the United States and Britain, along with a broad coalition they built, operated this week against the Houthis, who continue to threaten Israeli ships (and have, in fact, succeeded in paralyzing maritime traffic in the Red Sea)."
The Houthis rely on an Iranian-owned ship in the Mediterranean to determine which of the ships participating in the naval battle off the coast of Yemen is genuinely linked to Israel. However, they have made several identification errors and have attacked a few ships that are in no way connected to Israel.
A tragedy in the Perimeter
In the main battleground, the Gaza Strip, a new reality is taking shape even without the government making decisions on the day after, primarily for political reasons. The IDF already dominates militarily over most of the territory. In the part north of the Gaza River line, where civilian presence is ostensibly prohibited, the combat team of the 5th Brigade is active, but most of the forces have been withdrawn from the area.
At the heart of the Gaza Strip, based on the Gaza River line, the 99th Infantry Division created a separation between the two parts of the strip. This past week, an important step was taken within this separation, as tunnels that served as underground passages between the two parts of the strip were detonated.
In the southern part of the Gaza Strip, fighting is still ongoing around the city of Khan Yunis, which has been a focal point. The completion of the conquest was carried out in a swift operation that surprised the Palestinians on Monday, just before the winter weather wave reached our region. As part of the expansion of the ground maneuver, three officers from the Paratroopers' 202nd Battalion were killed.
The operation in the city of Khan Yunis, where some senior Hamas officials may still be located along with many of the captives, is carried out by the most elite units of the IDF, including special forces. The activity is comprehensive and systematic, and the brigade commander, Colonel Dan Goldfus, has requested to extend it beyond the planned timeframe.
Parallel to dissecting the Gaza Strip to north and south and the operation in Khan Yunis, the IDF is working to prepare a kilometer-wide buffer, along the entire length of the barrier separating the Gaza Strip from Israeli territory. This way, no Gazan foot will be able to tread on it now and in the future.
The largest tragedy since the beginning of the ground operation, where 21 reserve soldiers were killed in the collapse of two buildings in Al-Maghazi last week, only 600 meters from the border, happened as part of this engineering activity.
All along this buffer zone, thousands of structures need to be demolished. The buildings were not bombed from the air for two reasons. One reason is that every precise air bomb, which is very expensive, is preserved for future fighting in Gaza, and especially for a possible war in Lebanon.
In addition, using ground-based explosive materials to demolish buildings has many advantages. When a structure is destroyed from the air, it typically collapses to the side, and it is then very difficult to complete the demolition using a bulldozer. However, using explosives from the ground causes each building to implode, collapse inward onto itself. In the next stage, bulldozers come in to 'level' the ground.
In the meantime, while the IDF awaits instructions from the political echelon on the day after, three clear outcomes of the fighting in Gaza so far can be pointed out, which should be considered in any future arrangement.
One is the practical removal of the threat of rockets over most of Israel's territory. There may still be 'trickles' of rockets, but the threat has been removed, and life is returning to normal. Another military 'achievement' is related to the immense destruction and heavy toll in the strip: in order to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes and the overall recovery of the entire strip, Israel will demand an international reconstruction plan in which Hamas will not be involved.
In order for Gaza to remain demilitarized over time, Israel still needs to find a solution that will prevent tunnels in the Philadelphi Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt (and vice versa).
As for the terror tunnels in the Gaza Strip, many of them still exist, but the Israeli defense system has developed innovative ways to detect and destroy them.
The very fact that IDF forces operate inside the tunnels, as seen in the amazing footage from the tunnels where captives were held beneath Khan Yunis this week, is a significant achievement. Hamas probably did not expect the IDF to engage in warfare from beneath the ground.
The goal: Endurance
According to the plans, the next stage of incursions, following the IDF's control over the entire Gaza Strip, including Khan Yunis and possibly Rafah, and the dismantling of all Hamas battalions, is expected to last at least nine months.
The prolongation of the war beyond anything seen since the War of Independence, along with preparations for a potential war in Lebanon, requires a series of steps to enable the necessary duration of the conflict.
For example, the IDF needs advanced digital storage capabilities for the vast amount of video materials collected during the war. Additionally, there is a need for countless scanning tools for the numerous technical intelligence documents already gathered in Gaza. This is just one example.
Of course, a wide range of weapons and logistical equipment is required, sourced from around the world and manufactured by industries in Israel. This is one of the reasons why the Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir, along with the head of the Planning Directorate in the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Harel, spent the past week in the United States, meeting with top security companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, as well as with US defense establishment leaders. The IDF is preparing to increase its aircraft inventory.
The high number of combatants killed and wounded in battle is another significant challenge in itself. Every wounded individual (and their family) requires comprehensive care, at the height of sensitivity. Here's an incomprehensible detail: no less than 29 widows lost their husbands while still pregnant, and this was even before the tragedy of this week. So many babies will never see their father even once.
To maintain a prolonged endurance for the upcoming extended period of conflict that awaits us all, the IDF has released many reserve units from service. All of them will be called back to service in the coming months.
Before the release, in some units, commanders have already reported incidents of reserve soldiers' wives actively refusing to allow their husbands to return to their units after a break at home. They are fed up. Reserve soldiers who are self-employed reported that they are on the verge of an economic collapse. Specific exceptional cases of this nature were addressed individually.
For the sake of endurance, the IDF has also introduced a new protocol called "Open Emergency Callup,” which allows reservists with unique expertise to integrate military service for 3-4 days each week while continuing their civilian lives without the need for re-enlistment every week.
The IDF is aware that the prolonged fighting also poses challenges for compulsory service soldiers. Therefore, the commander of the Southern Command has issued a directive for soldiers to contact their parents at least once a week. That’s an order.
One of the challenges in such a prolonged war is preventing the erosion of military discipline. Images captured this week during the release of reserve soldiers at Tze’elim Base, where military vehicles with signs calling to fight until a decisive victory, including the letter "L" in the form associated with the Likud party, broke the hearts of quite a few commanders.
In such an image, the IDF looks like a militia force. Terrible. The military is also working on enhancing information security discipline through an explanatory campaign and various command-level initiatives, led by the head of the IDF's Information Security Department. Above all, the IDF must extract operational lessons from every battlefield scenario, aiming to prevent operational mistakes, similar to those witnessed in the El-Maghazi tragedy.
The IDF is also preparing to extend compulsory service from two years and eight months to three years while shortening the duration of pre-army preparatory courses to enhance force readiness. Unfortunately, there hasn't been an increase in the number of combat soldiers from the Haredi community, which could have eased the shortage of fighters. The IDF must also recruit new dogs instead of the “Oketz” unit heroes who were killed or wounded in the fighting in Gaza’s terror tunnels and buildings.
The assassination efforts against senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad members in Gaza have progressed slowly this week. The four "aces" – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Mohammed Sinwar, and Marwan Issa – are still alive.
In the Southern Command, they believe that despite the public perception that the IDF is treading water in the fighting, a clear plan is still in place. Step by step, Hamas is significantly weakening.
But, when the Prime Minister spoke about "absolute victory," a few days ago, what exactly did he mean?
I'd love to hear your thoughts and comments. Be in touch with me directly via Twitter and LinkedIn
The exchanges of fire in the northern arena persist, indicating both sides' attempts to improve positions for any future confrontation, while the General Staff is seeking solutions to increase the number of mandatory recruits. Amir Rapaport weighs in on this past week’s events
Everyone knows that it's not advisable to show excessive enthusiasm in any negotiation. Whether it's a deal to purchase a used car, a house, or even a small item, the party perceived as overly eager to close the deal loses its bargaining power.
Now, think about the most complex negotiations in the history of the State of Israel and perhaps in world history, between Israel and Hamas. At the forefront are the lives of over one hundred Israeli hostages. Unfortunately, we already know that about 30 of the hostages are no longer alive; most were already dead when they were abducted. The future of the entire State of Israel and the fate of the Hamas organization and the Gaza Strip will also be significantly influenced by any hostage deal.
Certainly, it is not advisable to convey that Israel is willing to pay any price for the hostages and even provide the Hamas leadership with assurances for their continued lives as they demand, upfront. That is why it is necessary to treat with caution any leak and every word spoken this week in the media regarding the negotiations for the hostages – whether it's from a reputable source like The Washington Post, Israeli media, or Arab press.
It is also possible that the reported crisis between Israel and the primary mediator in the previous deal, Qatar, could be artificial, stemming from negotiation tactics or political reasons within Israel.
Fire exchange in the north
When every publication or statement can be manipulative, it's better to focus on what is happening on the ground. Let's start specifically in the north: there, the intensity of the clashes between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran is declining, but the 'quality' of each attack is escalating.
On the Israeli side, this week is credited with two significant targeted killings, following previous assassinations of senior Iranian figures, including the prominent Iranian official Reza Mosawi on Syrian soil and Salah al-'Aruri, in the heart of Dahiyeh in Beirut.
This time, the Arab media claims that Israel targeted five senior Iranian officials with three precise missiles launched from the air. Among them was an intelligence officer with a rank equivalent to a Brigadier General, precisely as they gathered for a meeting in an apartment in the Al-Mazzeh neighborhood in Damascus.
If true, this marks another significant intelligence infiltration on our part. The senior officials who were targeted were responsible for the intelligence of the Iranian Quds Force in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, as well as coordinating the activities of the Iranian Axis in this region.
Not a day passed, and Israel was also attributed with the targeted killing of two more senior figures while they were traveling in a car near the city of Tyre. Their precise identities were not disclosed. In contrast, Iran itself claimed to have launched missiles at a “Mossad base” in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region in northern Iraq.
On Hezbollah's side, precision missiles were launched at the Israeli Air Force control unit in Meron for the second time in a month. UAVs were also sent toward distant targets, such as a defense industry plant.
The drones were activated and the air force control unit’s functionality was not harmed. The interceptions were also successful thanks to a new system developed during the war under the Northern Command and the Air Force's air defense system to cope with the growing threat of unmanned aerial vehicles.
The exchange of hostilities is ongoing. This past week, Israel attacked a facility jointly operated by Iran and Hezbollah. The final word between the sides has yet to be said.
The attacks are within the framework of signals transmitted by Israel and Hezbollah, with the backing of Iran. Both sides demonstrate their willingness to escalate the stakes in each subsequent attack and even slide into a full-scale war, even if no side is interested in a war at this time.
Simultaneously, preparations continue for the anticipated escalation, likely to erupt in the course of 2024. Apparently, one of Israel's objectives in its operations is to thwart the transfer of game-changing weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.
Last week, I wrote in this column about concerns regarding Hezbollah's acquisition of the ground-to-ground missile named Zolfaghar, with a range of up to 700 kilometers and a warhead weighing half a ton, featuring precision navigation capabilities with an accuracy of up to 60 meters.
Another dangerous weapon that may appear on the scene in the upcoming or preceding conflict is the coastal missile Yakhont (P-800 Oniks), which can travel towards a target at a distance of hundreds of kilometers, at a speed four times the speed of sound.
This missile skims the water, meaning it travels just above the surface, making it very difficult to detect at its high speed. It carries a 300-kilogram warhead and can pose a threat to naval missile ships and gas rigs, particularly the “Karish” rig off the coast of Lebanon.
The Navy is monitoring developments. Meanwhile, the “Karish” continues to operate as usual. The Navy remains uninvolved in another maritime theater far from Israel, where the United States and Britain, along with a broad coalition they built, operated this week against the Houthis, who continue to threaten Israeli ships (and have, in fact, succeeded in paralyzing maritime traffic in the Red Sea)."
The Houthis rely on an Iranian-owned ship in the Mediterranean to determine which of the ships participating in the naval battle off the coast of Yemen is genuinely linked to Israel. However, they have made several identification errors and have attacked a few ships that are in no way connected to Israel.
A tragedy in the Perimeter
In the main battleground, the Gaza Strip, a new reality is taking shape even without the government making decisions on the day after, primarily for political reasons. The IDF already dominates militarily over most of the territory. In the part north of the Gaza River line, where civilian presence is ostensibly prohibited, the combat team of the 5th Brigade is active, but most of the forces have been withdrawn from the area.
At the heart of the Gaza Strip, based on the Gaza River line, the 99th Infantry Division created a separation between the two parts of the strip. This past week, an important step was taken within this separation, as tunnels that served as underground passages between the two parts of the strip were detonated.
In the southern part of the Gaza Strip, fighting is still ongoing around the city of Khan Yunis, which has been a focal point. The completion of the conquest was carried out in a swift operation that surprised the Palestinians on Monday, just before the winter weather wave reached our region. As part of the expansion of the ground maneuver, three officers from the Paratroopers' 202nd Battalion were killed.
The operation in the city of Khan Yunis, where some senior Hamas officials may still be located along with many of the captives, is carried out by the most elite units of the IDF, including special forces. The activity is comprehensive and systematic, and the brigade commander, Colonel Dan Goldfus, has requested to extend it beyond the planned timeframe.
Parallel to dissecting the Gaza Strip to north and south and the operation in Khan Yunis, the IDF is working to prepare a kilometer-wide buffer, along the entire length of the barrier separating the Gaza Strip from Israeli territory. This way, no Gazan foot will be able to tread on it now and in the future.
The largest tragedy since the beginning of the ground operation, where 21 reserve soldiers were killed in the collapse of two buildings in Al-Maghazi last week, only 600 meters from the border, happened as part of this engineering activity.
All along this buffer zone, thousands of structures need to be demolished. The buildings were not bombed from the air for two reasons. One reason is that every precise air bomb, which is very expensive, is preserved for future fighting in Gaza, and especially for a possible war in Lebanon.
In addition, using ground-based explosive materials to demolish buildings has many advantages. When a structure is destroyed from the air, it typically collapses to the side, and it is then very difficult to complete the demolition using a bulldozer. However, using explosives from the ground causes each building to implode, collapse inward onto itself. In the next stage, bulldozers come in to 'level' the ground.
In the meantime, while the IDF awaits instructions from the political echelon on the day after, three clear outcomes of the fighting in Gaza so far can be pointed out, which should be considered in any future arrangement.
One is the practical removal of the threat of rockets over most of Israel's territory. There may still be 'trickles' of rockets, but the threat has been removed, and life is returning to normal. Another military 'achievement' is related to the immense destruction and heavy toll in the strip: in order to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes and the overall recovery of the entire strip, Israel will demand an international reconstruction plan in which Hamas will not be involved.
In order for Gaza to remain demilitarized over time, Israel still needs to find a solution that will prevent tunnels in the Philadelphi Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt (and vice versa).
As for the terror tunnels in the Gaza Strip, many of them still exist, but the Israeli defense system has developed innovative ways to detect and destroy them.
The very fact that IDF forces operate inside the tunnels, as seen in the amazing footage from the tunnels where captives were held beneath Khan Yunis this week, is a significant achievement. Hamas probably did not expect the IDF to engage in warfare from beneath the ground.
The goal: Endurance
According to the plans, the next stage of incursions, following the IDF's control over the entire Gaza Strip, including Khan Yunis and possibly Rafah, and the dismantling of all Hamas battalions, is expected to last at least nine months.
The prolongation of the war beyond anything seen since the War of Independence, along with preparations for a potential war in Lebanon, requires a series of steps to enable the necessary duration of the conflict.
For example, the IDF needs advanced digital storage capabilities for the vast amount of video materials collected during the war. Additionally, there is a need for countless scanning tools for the numerous technical intelligence documents already gathered in Gaza. This is just one example.
Of course, a wide range of weapons and logistical equipment is required, sourced from around the world and manufactured by industries in Israel. This is one of the reasons why the Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir, along with the head of the Planning Directorate in the General Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Harel, spent the past week in the United States, meeting with top security companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, as well as with US defense establishment leaders. The IDF is preparing to increase its aircraft inventory.
The high number of combatants killed and wounded in battle is another significant challenge in itself. Every wounded individual (and their family) requires comprehensive care, at the height of sensitivity. Here's an incomprehensible detail: no less than 29 widows lost their husbands while still pregnant, and this was even before the tragedy of this week. So many babies will never see their father even once.
To maintain a prolonged endurance for the upcoming extended period of conflict that awaits us all, the IDF has released many reserve units from service. All of them will be called back to service in the coming months.
Before the release, in some units, commanders have already reported incidents of reserve soldiers' wives actively refusing to allow their husbands to return to their units after a break at home. They are fed up. Reserve soldiers who are self-employed reported that they are on the verge of an economic collapse. Specific exceptional cases of this nature were addressed individually.
For the sake of endurance, the IDF has also introduced a new protocol called "Open Emergency Callup,” which allows reservists with unique expertise to integrate military service for 3-4 days each week while continuing their civilian lives without the need for re-enlistment every week.
The IDF is aware that the prolonged fighting also poses challenges for compulsory service soldiers. Therefore, the commander of the Southern Command has issued a directive for soldiers to contact their parents at least once a week. That’s an order.
One of the challenges in such a prolonged war is preventing the erosion of military discipline. Images captured this week during the release of reserve soldiers at Tze’elim Base, where military vehicles with signs calling to fight until a decisive victory, including the letter "L" in the form associated with the Likud party, broke the hearts of quite a few commanders.
In such an image, the IDF looks like a militia force. Terrible. The military is also working on enhancing information security discipline through an explanatory campaign and various command-level initiatives, led by the head of the IDF's Information Security Department. Above all, the IDF must extract operational lessons from every battlefield scenario, aiming to prevent operational mistakes, similar to those witnessed in the El-Maghazi tragedy.
The IDF is also preparing to extend compulsory service from two years and eight months to three years while shortening the duration of pre-army preparatory courses to enhance force readiness. Unfortunately, there hasn't been an increase in the number of combat soldiers from the Haredi community, which could have eased the shortage of fighters. The IDF must also recruit new dogs instead of the “Oketz” unit heroes who were killed or wounded in the fighting in Gaza’s terror tunnels and buildings.
The assassination efforts against senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad members in Gaza have progressed slowly this week. The four "aces" – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Mohammed Sinwar, and Marwan Issa – are still alive.
In the Southern Command, they believe that despite the public perception that the IDF is treading water in the fighting, a clear plan is still in place. Step by step, Hamas is significantly weakening.
But, when the Prime Minister spoke about "absolute victory," a few days ago, what exactly did he mean?
I'd love to hear your thoughts and comments. Be in touch with me directly via Twitter and LinkedIn
