Analysis | Hamas’ “Death or Surrender” Ultimatum and the Israeli Hostage Crisis
After fighting one of the largest urban battles in history, the IDF is preparing for the possibility of the war expanding to additional fronts
Amir Rapaport
| 03/11/2023
Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson's Office
At the end of the fourth weekend of Israel’s war with Hamas, every possible scenario – from a ceasefire related to the return of some of the hostages to the expansion of the war into Lebanon and perhaps even Iran – is on the table.
So let's begin with what is already happening, and with a very high level of intensity: a military operation within a densely populated urban area, which will go down in world military history and be studied in military academies.
At the beginning of the ground operation, last weekend, the IDF attempted to create the impression that it was a limited maneuver, in the style of a minor incursion that had previously taken place in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
However, the truth is that since Saturday, significant forces, based on the most elite and high-quality units of the IDF, both regular and reserve, have entered the Gaza Strip.
So far, the IDF has not disclosed many details about the battle plan. However, from what the Palestinians themselves have revealed (after internet services in the Gaza Strip resumed on Monday), it appears that the IDF has penetrated deep into the strip from two main axes: one from the north, near the coastline, while the main force has moved towards the city of Gaza from the south, near the axis that once led to the isolated Israeli settlement of Netzarim.
In parallel with dividing the Gaza Strip into two parts, based on the Gaza River line, the residents of ist northern part were asked in advance to move south of it. A siege is tightening around the city of Gaza itself.
Hamas is organized in several defensive lines, but this is not warfare in the traditional sense, with a clear front. The enemy can emerge at any given moment, even from within a tunnel, behind our forces, in an area that appears to have already been captured.
It can be assumed that thousands of Hamas members have already fled to the southern part of the Gaza Strip along with the wave of refugees moving to the relatively protected area, where humanitarian supplies are still available. However, thousands are engaged in combat against the IDF. As the IDF approaches the "grand prize" – the strongholds beneath which the most senior Hamas commanders are located, including possibly Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif themselves – the fighting is likely to intensify.
The grand prize
In this context, the IDF has already identified the biggest possible prize – Shifa Hospital in the center of Gaza. Above ground, there are thousands of patients and refugees there. In the underground levels, Hamas’ commanders are hiding.
One of the reasons the IDF knows the Shifa Hospital so well is because most of its facilities, including the bunkers, were built by Israel itself during the civilian administration days in the 1980s. Yes, the idea of placing a military headquarters beneath a hospital was originally ours.
The sharp-eyed observer can even detect the resemblance between the buildings of Shifa Hospital and the Bezalel Academy of Arts and Design in Jerusalem. There are no bunkers at Bezalel, but the same architects planned both sites.
The name of the game in the extensive ground operation of the IDF is mass and aggressiveness. Every force deep within the Gaza Strip is a combination of infantry and armored troops, receiving close air and artillery support. Alongside them are the combat engineers who handle explosives and clear obstacles. The soldiers of the "Oketz" canine unit are also in the field with their dogs. And in every place on the battlefield, at any given moment, elite units of the IDF can be deployed.
The Israeli Air Force alone has already targeted nearly 15,000 objectives since the beginning of the war, including heavy bombardments in areas where ground forces were poised to enter.
What characterizes the fighting thus far is the precision and escalation of firepower as time passes, to scales not like any before. Now, it's not just the "softening" bombardment but also very close air support to the ground forces. In one case, the Air Force sent eight consecutive bombs toward a street that the IDF was about to enter.
The "fire capability" can reach up to dozens of targets being engaged simultaneously - from the sea, from the air, and from the ground. Attacks on strategically important targets are carried out from the General Staff headquarters. Close to the combat forces, aerial support is provided through "fire centers" at the Gaza Brigade and the Southern Command in Be'er Sheva. From there, assassinations of Shin Bet targets are also managed.
Each time a new target emerges, and this happens incessantly, the means to attack it most quickly and effectively are selected, regardless of its location. UAVs are constantly in the air, ready to release their missiles. Everything needs to happen in real time and with precision.
The Jabalia combat
Take, for example, the battle in the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern part of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
This is the largest camp in the Palestinian territories and one of the most densely populated places in the world, with a hundred thousand people (before the evacuation) in a minimal area of 1.4 square kilometers.
The IDF made efforts to "flatten" most of the buildings in the areas it was about to enter, but a multi-story structure remained standing because it was adjacent to a medical facility and a school.
During the movement of the forces, gunfire erupted from one of the higher floors of the building. The soldiers identified the house and within seconds, it was already destroyed from the air.
In general, the IDF's activities in the heart of Gaza have been disrupting all of Hamas' defense plans. Not all of their commanders have a place in the tunnels. Some of them still try to operate from command posts in the midst of populated areas, believing that the IDF would not attack them, like in the good old days.
But after the horrific Simchat Torah massacre, the green light given to the IDF by Western nations to act to destroy Hamas is nearly unlimited, and in any case, all Palestinian civilians were asked to evacuate in advance.
Hamas commanders who arrive at command posts or homes are like ticking time bombs for the families and neighbors around them. The Shin Bet continually tries to gather information about their whereabouts.
The aggressiveness is also evident in the attack on the home of a Hamas battalion commander in Jabalia, Ibrahim Biyara. The explosion that destroyed his home also detonated a tunnel beneath it. As a result, the entire street collapsed, and several other buildings, which the IDF did not intend to damage, collapsed.
While it is true that the IDF has achieved significant successes in the fighting by the end of this weekend, not everything is proceeding as smoothly as in a controlled laboratory environment, of course.
The losses are painful and significant. The fall of the commander of the armored battalion from Brigade 188, Lieutenant Colonel Salman Habaka, less than a month after he bravely led the lone tank that fought against terrorists in Be'eri, demonstrates how commanders are always at the forefront.
Contrary to common belief, the IDF has been preparing for a conflict in Gaza, including subterranean warfare, for years. Brigadier General Moshe (Chico) Tamir led the preparations and is now overseeing the operations from the command in Be'er Sheba.
The terrorists can still emerge from anywhere at any moment and attempt to attach explosives to our heavily protected vehicles or fire anti-tank missiles. This is the first conflict in which the IDF has entered Gaza with highly protected vehicles, such as armored personnel carriers and Namer armored personnel carriers, equipped with the “Trophy” system (known as “Windbreaker” in Hebrew) that detects incoming anti-tank missiles and intercepts them.
Just like with Iron Dome, there is no 100% success rate, but many missile hits have been thwarted. In the fight against the anti-tank missile threat, the IDF also targeted the commander of this Hamas array, Muhammad Asar. The fighters in the field are dealing with countless mortar shells as well. Against the threat of captive drones, overhead defense systems have been deployed.
The tragedy in which 11 Givati Brigade soldiers were killed in one Namer APC was destroyed is the biggest achievement for Hamas this week. In contrast, dozens of Hamas fighters suffered casualties, including in the heroic battle of Golani soldiers on the night between Wednesday and Thursday when a special Hamas unit tried to attack them as they exited from the tunnels. The terrorist unit was mostly destroyed without significant losses on our side.
Ammunition economy and tiebreaking weaponry
From what we have learned in the first week in the Gaza Strip, it seems that the fighting will continue for many more weeks, just as the public was told in advance. There will be more difficult days ahead.
Israel’s Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, clearly defined the objectives of the war this week when he stated that Hamas has only two options: to surrender or to die.
Fighting that will last several weeks requires an "economy of ammunition" not only from Hamas (which is firing relatively sparingly to preserve its rocket stockpile) but also from our side. The quantities of ammunition that the IDF is currently using are unprecedented, and this is while the fighting on the northern front is still considered "low intensity."
In this context, it's worth shedding light on the war’s supporting efforts, such as the constant airlift of munitions arriving tirelessly from the United States, without which we wouldn't have been able to continue.
Simultaneously, massive efforts are made around the clock in all of Israel’s defense industries to produce munitions and weaponry and perhaps even to introduce new means.
Of course, additional details on this cannot be provided, except for Rafael’s “Iron Beam’ system, designed to intercept rockets through laser beams, scheduled to begin initial operations in 2025. Some of its components may be tested during the current war, but will not be able to have any influence just yet.
And here's another important secondary effort: To connect all the arrays of the IDF and absorb vast amounts of information, there is a need for computer storage facilities and reliable, fast communication means. The IDF established a special command center for this purpose in Tzrifin, where attempts are made to solve problems arising from the fact that the war caught part of the reserve army in the middle of the process of updating its communications systems.
And this too: In parallel to the activity aimed at weakening Hamas, the IDF operates a special unit under the command of Major General Nitzan Alon. Its primary goal is to bring the hostages back home. Unfortunately, as time passes, the chances of rescue operations – like the incredible one led by the Shin Bet, in which private Ori Magidish was rescued – diminish.
A significant warning
Regarding the warning before the October 7 attack, more and more details are being uncovered. Amir Buhbut reported on the Walla website that due to the short warning, Southern Command's Major General Yaron Finkelman shortened his vacation in northern Israel and arrived at the Southern Command headquarters that morning.
We are adding here that the entire chain of command of the Gaza Brigade, knew of this warning before Hamas attacked. This underscores the significance given to it, which led the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, to dispatch a "kill team" to deal with the kidnapping threat.
It is important to understand that such a team is always accompanied by forces outside the Shin Bet, such as fighters from the Special Police Unit (Yamam). In the case of the October 7th call (on the holiday of Simchat Torah), the reinforcement did not stand up to the onslaught of Hamas terrorists who infiltrated Israel – over 3,000 of them, as was reported just this week.
And still, it is difficult to understand why, when the commanders of the brigade and the Southern Command all rushed to the area, minimal warning was not given to the fighting forces that could have prevented incidents like the massacre of Golani soldiers in their beds in caravans near the border with Gaza (after which, the terrorist took off with IDF vehicles).
It’s never too soon to start speaking about the day after
This week, journalist Nadav Eyal wrote about an idea that is being looked at, reaching a ceasefire which, when it ends, would allow Hamas leaders to leave the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of the Israeli captives. We should be so lucky. This is mainly an Israeli desire, and Hamas is still far from surrendering, in any case.
The discussions in Israel regarding the day after the war in the Gaza Strip are primarily led by the National Security Council. A special team includes representatives from the Planning Directorate in the IDF, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Shin Bet, the Mossad, and other relevant bodies. The discussions are at their initial phase. Currently, the war has no end in sight.
Significantly disrupting the “day after” discussions and Israel's global public diplomacy efforts, needed in order to extend the green light for continued fighting (and certainly as not to annoy the US) are the ministers of the “Otzma Yehudit” Jewish Power and religious Zionism parties.
Defense Minister Gallant blew up Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, for delaying the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority this week. Simultaneously, the National Security Council tried to convey the message to him that, contrary to the claim that "the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are one and the same," there is still a significant difference between the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank).
Additional tensions are brewing within the defense establishment regarding the policies of Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, which some perceive as an attempt to provoke the Arab community in Israel in order to escalate the situation further.
In any case, even without provocations, the situation in the West Bank is highly tense. From the perspective of the IDF and the Shin Bet, it is another front where anything can happen.
The northern front
All eyes will be on the speech by Hassan Nasrallah on Friday afternoon, while Israel will (again) receive the Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken.
Is a larger-scale conflict brewing? Is there a chance that the war will involve Iran, especially as international military forces have gathered in our region in numbers not seen for decades?
In the meantime, Israel has already evacuated dozens of communities and deployed significant forces along the entire border. Hezbollah and Israel are engaged in a signaling game. Hezbollah attempts to inflict damage on the IDF through the use of anti-tank missile fire and extends the range of rocket fire toward the Israeli communities.
The upper hand in most cases lies with the IDF. Over the past two weeks, fire cycles have closed rapidly, astonishing Hezbollah, which already has dozens of casualties. The IDF also takes advantage of every retaliatory action to eliminate Hezbollah positions close to the Israeli border.
Most of the IDF casualties so far fell during the first days in the south. This week, there were also casualties after a tank was hit by the enemy.
But what is Nasrallah really planning? And where does Israel’s real interest lie regarding its northern front and Iran?
After fighting one of the largest urban battles in history, the IDF is preparing for the possibility of the war expanding to additional fronts
Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson's Office
At the end of the fourth weekend of Israel’s war with Hamas, every possible scenario – from a ceasefire related to the return of some of the hostages to the expansion of the war into Lebanon and perhaps even Iran – is on the table.
So let's begin with what is already happening, and with a very high level of intensity: a military operation within a densely populated urban area, which will go down in world military history and be studied in military academies.
At the beginning of the ground operation, last weekend, the IDF attempted to create the impression that it was a limited maneuver, in the style of a minor incursion that had previously taken place in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
However, the truth is that since Saturday, significant forces, based on the most elite and high-quality units of the IDF, both regular and reserve, have entered the Gaza Strip.
So far, the IDF has not disclosed many details about the battle plan. However, from what the Palestinians themselves have revealed (after internet services in the Gaza Strip resumed on Monday), it appears that the IDF has penetrated deep into the strip from two main axes: one from the north, near the coastline, while the main force has moved towards the city of Gaza from the south, near the axis that once led to the isolated Israeli settlement of Netzarim.
In parallel with dividing the Gaza Strip into two parts, based on the Gaza River line, the residents of ist northern part were asked in advance to move south of it. A siege is tightening around the city of Gaza itself.
Hamas is organized in several defensive lines, but this is not warfare in the traditional sense, with a clear front. The enemy can emerge at any given moment, even from within a tunnel, behind our forces, in an area that appears to have already been captured.
It can be assumed that thousands of Hamas members have already fled to the southern part of the Gaza Strip along with the wave of refugees moving to the relatively protected area, where humanitarian supplies are still available. However, thousands are engaged in combat against the IDF. As the IDF approaches the "grand prize" – the strongholds beneath which the most senior Hamas commanders are located, including possibly Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif themselves – the fighting is likely to intensify.
The grand prize
In this context, the IDF has already identified the biggest possible prize – Shifa Hospital in the center of Gaza. Above ground, there are thousands of patients and refugees there. In the underground levels, Hamas’ commanders are hiding.
One of the reasons the IDF knows the Shifa Hospital so well is because most of its facilities, including the bunkers, were built by Israel itself during the civilian administration days in the 1980s. Yes, the idea of placing a military headquarters beneath a hospital was originally ours.
The sharp-eyed observer can even detect the resemblance between the buildings of Shifa Hospital and the Bezalel Academy of Arts and Design in Jerusalem. There are no bunkers at Bezalel, but the same architects planned both sites.
The name of the game in the extensive ground operation of the IDF is mass and aggressiveness. Every force deep within the Gaza Strip is a combination of infantry and armored troops, receiving close air and artillery support. Alongside them are the combat engineers who handle explosives and clear obstacles. The soldiers of the "Oketz" canine unit are also in the field with their dogs. And in every place on the battlefield, at any given moment, elite units of the IDF can be deployed.
The Israeli Air Force alone has already targeted nearly 15,000 objectives since the beginning of the war, including heavy bombardments in areas where ground forces were poised to enter.
What characterizes the fighting thus far is the precision and escalation of firepower as time passes, to scales not like any before. Now, it's not just the "softening" bombardment but also very close air support to the ground forces. In one case, the Air Force sent eight consecutive bombs toward a street that the IDF was about to enter.
The "fire capability" can reach up to dozens of targets being engaged simultaneously - from the sea, from the air, and from the ground. Attacks on strategically important targets are carried out from the General Staff headquarters. Close to the combat forces, aerial support is provided through "fire centers" at the Gaza Brigade and the Southern Command in Be'er Sheva. From there, assassinations of Shin Bet targets are also managed.
Each time a new target emerges, and this happens incessantly, the means to attack it most quickly and effectively are selected, regardless of its location. UAVs are constantly in the air, ready to release their missiles. Everything needs to happen in real time and with precision.
The Jabalia combat
Take, for example, the battle in the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern part of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
This is the largest camp in the Palestinian territories and one of the most densely populated places in the world, with a hundred thousand people (before the evacuation) in a minimal area of 1.4 square kilometers.
The IDF made efforts to "flatten" most of the buildings in the areas it was about to enter, but a multi-story structure remained standing because it was adjacent to a medical facility and a school.
During the movement of the forces, gunfire erupted from one of the higher floors of the building. The soldiers identified the house and within seconds, it was already destroyed from the air.
In general, the IDF's activities in the heart of Gaza have been disrupting all of Hamas' defense plans. Not all of their commanders have a place in the tunnels. Some of them still try to operate from command posts in the midst of populated areas, believing that the IDF would not attack them, like in the good old days.
But after the horrific Simchat Torah massacre, the green light given to the IDF by Western nations to act to destroy Hamas is nearly unlimited, and in any case, all Palestinian civilians were asked to evacuate in advance.
Hamas commanders who arrive at command posts or homes are like ticking time bombs for the families and neighbors around them. The Shin Bet continually tries to gather information about their whereabouts.
The aggressiveness is also evident in the attack on the home of a Hamas battalion commander in Jabalia, Ibrahim Biyara. The explosion that destroyed his home also detonated a tunnel beneath it. As a result, the entire street collapsed, and several other buildings, which the IDF did not intend to damage, collapsed.
While it is true that the IDF has achieved significant successes in the fighting by the end of this weekend, not everything is proceeding as smoothly as in a controlled laboratory environment, of course.
The losses are painful and significant. The fall of the commander of the armored battalion from Brigade 188, Lieutenant Colonel Salman Habaka, less than a month after he bravely led the lone tank that fought against terrorists in Be'eri, demonstrates how commanders are always at the forefront.
Contrary to common belief, the IDF has been preparing for a conflict in Gaza, including subterranean warfare, for years. Brigadier General Moshe (Chico) Tamir led the preparations and is now overseeing the operations from the command in Be'er Sheba.
The terrorists can still emerge from anywhere at any moment and attempt to attach explosives to our heavily protected vehicles or fire anti-tank missiles. This is the first conflict in which the IDF has entered Gaza with highly protected vehicles, such as armored personnel carriers and Namer armored personnel carriers, equipped with the “Trophy” system (known as “Windbreaker” in Hebrew) that detects incoming anti-tank missiles and intercepts them.
Just like with Iron Dome, there is no 100% success rate, but many missile hits have been thwarted. In the fight against the anti-tank missile threat, the IDF also targeted the commander of this Hamas array, Muhammad Asar. The fighters in the field are dealing with countless mortar shells as well. Against the threat of captive drones, overhead defense systems have been deployed.
The tragedy in which 11 Givati Brigade soldiers were killed in one Namer APC was destroyed is the biggest achievement for Hamas this week. In contrast, dozens of Hamas fighters suffered casualties, including in the heroic battle of Golani soldiers on the night between Wednesday and Thursday when a special Hamas unit tried to attack them as they exited from the tunnels. The terrorist unit was mostly destroyed without significant losses on our side.
Ammunition economy and tiebreaking weaponry
From what we have learned in the first week in the Gaza Strip, it seems that the fighting will continue for many more weeks, just as the public was told in advance. There will be more difficult days ahead.
Israel’s Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, clearly defined the objectives of the war this week when he stated that Hamas has only two options: to surrender or to die.
Fighting that will last several weeks requires an "economy of ammunition" not only from Hamas (which is firing relatively sparingly to preserve its rocket stockpile) but also from our side. The quantities of ammunition that the IDF is currently using are unprecedented, and this is while the fighting on the northern front is still considered "low intensity."
In this context, it's worth shedding light on the war’s supporting efforts, such as the constant airlift of munitions arriving tirelessly from the United States, without which we wouldn't have been able to continue.
Simultaneously, massive efforts are made around the clock in all of Israel’s defense industries to produce munitions and weaponry and perhaps even to introduce new means.
Of course, additional details on this cannot be provided, except for Rafael’s “Iron Beam’ system, designed to intercept rockets through laser beams, scheduled to begin initial operations in 2025. Some of its components may be tested during the current war, but will not be able to have any influence just yet.
And here's another important secondary effort: To connect all the arrays of the IDF and absorb vast amounts of information, there is a need for computer storage facilities and reliable, fast communication means. The IDF established a special command center for this purpose in Tzrifin, where attempts are made to solve problems arising from the fact that the war caught part of the reserve army in the middle of the process of updating its communications systems.
And this too: In parallel to the activity aimed at weakening Hamas, the IDF operates a special unit under the command of Major General Nitzan Alon. Its primary goal is to bring the hostages back home. Unfortunately, as time passes, the chances of rescue operations – like the incredible one led by the Shin Bet, in which private Ori Magidish was rescued – diminish.
A significant warning
Regarding the warning before the October 7 attack, more and more details are being uncovered. Amir Buhbut reported on the Walla website that due to the short warning, Southern Command's Major General Yaron Finkelman shortened his vacation in northern Israel and arrived at the Southern Command headquarters that morning.
We are adding here that the entire chain of command of the Gaza Brigade, knew of this warning before Hamas attacked. This underscores the significance given to it, which led the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, to dispatch a "kill team" to deal with the kidnapping threat.
It is important to understand that such a team is always accompanied by forces outside the Shin Bet, such as fighters from the Special Police Unit (Yamam). In the case of the October 7th call (on the holiday of Simchat Torah), the reinforcement did not stand up to the onslaught of Hamas terrorists who infiltrated Israel – over 3,000 of them, as was reported just this week.
And still, it is difficult to understand why, when the commanders of the brigade and the Southern Command all rushed to the area, minimal warning was not given to the fighting forces that could have prevented incidents like the massacre of Golani soldiers in their beds in caravans near the border with Gaza (after which, the terrorist took off with IDF vehicles).
It’s never too soon to start speaking about the day after
This week, journalist Nadav Eyal wrote about an idea that is being looked at, reaching a ceasefire which, when it ends, would allow Hamas leaders to leave the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of the Israeli captives. We should be so lucky. This is mainly an Israeli desire, and Hamas is still far from surrendering, in any case.
The discussions in Israel regarding the day after the war in the Gaza Strip are primarily led by the National Security Council. A special team includes representatives from the Planning Directorate in the IDF, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Shin Bet, the Mossad, and other relevant bodies. The discussions are at their initial phase. Currently, the war has no end in sight.
Significantly disrupting the “day after” discussions and Israel's global public diplomacy efforts, needed in order to extend the green light for continued fighting (and certainly as not to annoy the US) are the ministers of the “Otzma Yehudit” Jewish Power and religious Zionism parties.
Defense Minister Gallant blew up Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, for delaying the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority this week. Simultaneously, the National Security Council tried to convey the message to him that, contrary to the claim that "the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are one and the same," there is still a significant difference between the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank).
Additional tensions are brewing within the defense establishment regarding the policies of Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, which some perceive as an attempt to provoke the Arab community in Israel in order to escalate the situation further.
In any case, even without provocations, the situation in the West Bank is highly tense. From the perspective of the IDF and the Shin Bet, it is another front where anything can happen.
The northern front
All eyes will be on the speech by Hassan Nasrallah on Friday afternoon, while Israel will (again) receive the Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken.
Is a larger-scale conflict brewing? Is there a chance that the war will involve Iran, especially as international military forces have gathered in our region in numbers not seen for decades?
In the meantime, Israel has already evacuated dozens of communities and deployed significant forces along the entire border. Hezbollah and Israel are engaged in a signaling game. Hezbollah attempts to inflict damage on the IDF through the use of anti-tank missile fire and extends the range of rocket fire toward the Israeli communities.
The upper hand in most cases lies with the IDF. Over the past two weeks, fire cycles have closed rapidly, astonishing Hezbollah, which already has dozens of casualties. The IDF also takes advantage of every retaliatory action to eliminate Hezbollah positions close to the Israeli border.
Most of the IDF casualties so far fell during the first days in the south. This week, there were also casualties after a tank was hit by the enemy.
But what is Nasrallah really planning? And where does Israel’s real interest lie regarding its northern front and Iran?
