Iran nuclear program must be destroyed, says Israeli nuclear physicist
Dr. Raphael Ofek, who had served for decades in the Israeli intelligence community, reviews the progress Iran has made since its nuclear goals became public in 1988, and claims that Israel can attack its enrichment facilities alone, without assistance from the US
Dr. Rafael Ofek
| 27/11/2022
A view of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, 250 km south of the Iranian capital Tehran, 2005. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi
Allow me to take the liberty of starting this essay with writing a few things about myself, in order to point out that what I will present later on is based on many years of knowledge and experience.
I would like to mention, that my background includes, among other things, nearly thirty years of service in the Israeli intelligence community – in the IDF Intelligence Division as well as the Prime Minister’s Office.
I was trained for this service following the scientific-technical background in physics and nuclear engineering that I had acquired at the Bar-Ilan and the Ben-Gurion universities.
Between 1976-1981 I served as the technical intelligence officer of the nuclear reactor that France had set up in Iraq. I worked on intelligence gathering and was also a partner to the countermeasure plans, including at the time the reactor was destroyed by the Israeli Air Force, on July 7th, 1981.
Immediately after the IAF aircrafts returned to Israel, on the eve of Shavuot, I was asked to arrive at the General Staff’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, in order to confirm – based on photographs and phone calls the French engineers in Baghdad held with Paris – that the reactor had, in fact, been destroyed. The document I wrote was immediately relayed to then-Prime Minister, Menahem Begin, who broke the news to the state of Israel the following day.
Years later, in 1988, an Iranian nuclear plan was brought to light. The issue of the risk arising from the military development of a nuclear Iran was included in the annual intelligence assessment. Since them, as we all know, this issue has only grown.
In recent days, Israeli press reported about an operational cooperation between the Israeli and the US militaries in order to stop the Iranian nuclear plan. This, against the backdrop of recent events.
The progress of the Iranian uranium enrichment plan is now reflected in the operation of the advanced I-6 centrifuges, in order to enrich uranium up to 60%, in the underground plant in Fordow.
This is a significant step towards the imminent option of 90% enrichment – that is, uranium at the quality required for a nuclear weapon. This is a direct continuation of Iran’s ongoing disengagements from all of its obligations vis-à-vis the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
According to the press, the last visit to the US by Israel’s Chief-of-Staff, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, included coordination with senior US military officials in preparation for joint exercises.
Another recent development is a significant tightening of military ties between Iran and Russia. Tehran has been aiding Moscow in the Ukraine war, mostly by selling drones, and probably precision strike missiles as well.
As a result, the US administration has been undergoing a transformation regarding President Biden’s aspiration – until recently – to try and achieve an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue.
Repeated attack threats
According to former military journalist, Ilan Kfir, who was also close to Ehud Barak, in September 2010 Israel came very close to attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, based on the decision of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Barak. This, as Netanyahu did not believe that then-US president, Barack Obama, would act in order to stop Iran.
Kfir says, that it was Barak who convinced Netanyahu to greenlight this operation – while Netanyahu saw his Defense Minister as his human shield regarding responsibility on this matter. However, the resolute opposition of the security establishment heads – the Chief of Staff, and the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet, eventually led to the cancellation of the attack.
And there’s more, according to Kfir: not only did all of the above object, but they also went as far as warning Netanyahu and Barak that this would be an illegal order. In their opinion, only the cabinet was authorized this, but not a limited ministerial forum.
Barak, whose relations with Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, were already shaken at the time following the Harpaz scandal, was furious, while Netanyahu was stunned by their reaction. Barak then offered Netanyahu to share the responsibility of the attack, but the latter refused. That was the end of the dramatic chapter.
Speaking on Channel 2’s Friday night news program on August 21st, 2015, Ehud Barak recounted that between 2010-2012, while he served as defense minister under Netanyahu, the option of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities was discussed on various occasions in the limited cabinet forum, but was rejected at least twice as no consensus was reached.
The second time the possibility of an attack in Iran came up was in 2011. However, Barak quoted the words of the Chief-of-Staff at the time, Benny Gantz, who said to the cabinet that “there is a capacity, you know all of the limitations, all of the risks.”
This means, that as far back as 2011, Israel had the ability to attack in Iran, but some cabinet members were reluctant to approve such an operation due to the risks involved, pointed out by Gantz.
And one more thing, according to Kfir: the possibility of an attack was raised again in 2012, but cancelled given the sensitive situation vis-à-vis the US, as Obama was running for his second presidential term at the time. But Ehud Barak was also reluctant to attack, not only because of the US but also because of other operational reasons.
The nuclear deal
Following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed on July 14th 2015 with Iran – which, I believe, was a rigged game on the part of Obama and the European Union, I expressed my opinion that a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities must take place immediately in an article I published in Israel Defense on August 31st, 2015.
In the article, I wrote that “If Israel does not attack the nuclear targets in Iran as soon as possible, this will snowball and gain momentum until it is unstoppable. In addition, it would appear that there are currently suitable conditions for an Israeli attack. While I received quite a number of comments – some supportive while other not – at the end of the day, my opinion was rejected.
Several years later, in September 2021, I wrote in a pamphlet published by the Begin-Saadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) of Bar-Ilan University, that “It can be clearly stated that the Iranian nuclear agreement was bad, because it not only enabled Tehran to continue its pursuit towards obtaining nuclear weapons, but it also supported financing its efforts to develop ballistic missiles, undermine Middle East stability, and spread terrorist activities worldwide.
“Therefore, returning to the deal would be an act of folly. The possibility of resurrecting the original agreement appears unlikely – both due to the lack of trust towards Iran given its attempts to hide its military plan, and due to the steps Iran has taken since May 2019 in establishing the situation of advancing towards becoming a nuclear-threshold state.
Since the signing of the JCPOA, the situation had deteriorated, and in 2017 the Iranians had already begun breeching it gradually, with small but persistent steps. Iran also began to increasingly avoid cooperation with the IAEA.
Finally, on January 5th 2020, Iran announced that it is no longer bound by any restrictions imposed by the JCPOA. But an exceptionally unusual step began on April 17th, 2021, when it was confirmed that Iran enriching uranium to 60% purity.
This is major, since the jump from 60% to 90% purity – the level required for a nuclear weapon – is very quick. The enrichment was carried out at the Natanz plant.
enrichment to 90% purity
The process of uranium enrichment to 90% purity has no other purpose for Iran other than the production of nuclear weapons. According to a recent IAEA report, as of this past October Iran had amassed 62.3 kg of 60% purity uranium. After this amount is enriched to 90% purity, it can be used to create at least two nuclear bombs.
Furthermore, in recent days Iran has begun to enrich uranium to 60% purity at its Fordow facility as well, using two centrifuge cascades, each containing 166 IR-6 centrifuges. This information relies also on a report by IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, from November 22. Up until now, only 1,044 IR-1 (the early model) centrifuges have been put to use at the plant.
Theoretically, the enrichment capacities of an IR-6 centrifuge are eight times higher than those of the IR-1. However, in practice, according to calculations done by Institute for Science and International Security, the actual enrichment capacity of the advanced centrifuges is about four times that of the IR-1.
In any case, this is very important progress as far as Iran is concerned, and highly worrisome for Israel. If Iran continues in its current pace, it can reach a nuclear weapon within one year. This, assuming that its ballistic missiles will also develop at this pace.
Therefore, it seems to me that the current state of disillusionment in the US and in Western Europe regarding Iran’s nuclear conduct on the one hand, and the anti-government riots in the country on the other – is quite suitable for attacking Iranian enrichment facilities.
I also believe that Israel can destroy Iran’s enrichment facilities on its own, without the participation or support of the US.
A common statement is that – since the Fordow facility, as well as large parts of Natanz, are underground – they will be very hard to destroy. But in my humble opinion, this disadvantage also has a great advantage, of which I do not believe is the time or place to go into details.
Lt. Col. (Res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek is an expert on nuclear physics and technology. He had previously served in the Israeli intelligence community as a senior researcher and analyst of worldwide and Middle East nuclear issues.
Dr. Raphael Ofek, who had served for decades in the Israeli intelligence community, reviews the progress Iran has made since its nuclear goals became public in 1988, and claims that Israel can attack its enrichment facilities alone, without assistance from the US
A view of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, 250 km south of the Iranian capital Tehran, 2005. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi
Allow me to take the liberty of starting this essay with writing a few things about myself, in order to point out that what I will present later on is based on many years of knowledge and experience.
I would like to mention, that my background includes, among other things, nearly thirty years of service in the Israeli intelligence community – in the IDF Intelligence Division as well as the Prime Minister’s Office.
I was trained for this service following the scientific-technical background in physics and nuclear engineering that I had acquired at the Bar-Ilan and the Ben-Gurion universities.
Between 1976-1981 I served as the technical intelligence officer of the nuclear reactor that France had set up in Iraq. I worked on intelligence gathering and was also a partner to the countermeasure plans, including at the time the reactor was destroyed by the Israeli Air Force, on July 7th, 1981.
Immediately after the IAF aircrafts returned to Israel, on the eve of Shavuot, I was asked to arrive at the General Staff’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, in order to confirm – based on photographs and phone calls the French engineers in Baghdad held with Paris – that the reactor had, in fact, been destroyed. The document I wrote was immediately relayed to then-Prime Minister, Menahem Begin, who broke the news to the state of Israel the following day.
Years later, in 1988, an Iranian nuclear plan was brought to light. The issue of the risk arising from the military development of a nuclear Iran was included in the annual intelligence assessment. Since them, as we all know, this issue has only grown.
In recent days, Israeli press reported about an operational cooperation between the Israeli and the US militaries in order to stop the Iranian nuclear plan. This, against the backdrop of recent events.
The progress of the Iranian uranium enrichment plan is now reflected in the operation of the advanced I-6 centrifuges, in order to enrich uranium up to 60%, in the underground plant in Fordow.
This is a significant step towards the imminent option of 90% enrichment – that is, uranium at the quality required for a nuclear weapon. This is a direct continuation of Iran’s ongoing disengagements from all of its obligations vis-à-vis the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
According to the press, the last visit to the US by Israel’s Chief-of-Staff, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, included coordination with senior US military officials in preparation for joint exercises.
Another recent development is a significant tightening of military ties between Iran and Russia. Tehran has been aiding Moscow in the Ukraine war, mostly by selling drones, and probably precision strike missiles as well.
As a result, the US administration has been undergoing a transformation regarding President Biden’s aspiration – until recently – to try and achieve an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue.
Repeated attack threats
According to former military journalist, Ilan Kfir, who was also close to Ehud Barak, in September 2010 Israel came very close to attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, based on the decision of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Barak. This, as Netanyahu did not believe that then-US president, Barack Obama, would act in order to stop Iran.
Kfir says, that it was Barak who convinced Netanyahu to greenlight this operation – while Netanyahu saw his Defense Minister as his human shield regarding responsibility on this matter. However, the resolute opposition of the security establishment heads – the Chief of Staff, and the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet, eventually led to the cancellation of the attack.
And there’s more, according to Kfir: not only did all of the above object, but they also went as far as warning Netanyahu and Barak that this would be an illegal order. In their opinion, only the cabinet was authorized this, but not a limited ministerial forum.
Barak, whose relations with Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, were already shaken at the time following the Harpaz scandal, was furious, while Netanyahu was stunned by their reaction. Barak then offered Netanyahu to share the responsibility of the attack, but the latter refused. That was the end of the dramatic chapter.
Speaking on Channel 2’s Friday night news program on August 21st, 2015, Ehud Barak recounted that between 2010-2012, while he served as defense minister under Netanyahu, the option of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities was discussed on various occasions in the limited cabinet forum, but was rejected at least twice as no consensus was reached.
The second time the possibility of an attack in Iran came up was in 2011. However, Barak quoted the words of the Chief-of-Staff at the time, Benny Gantz, who said to the cabinet that “there is a capacity, you know all of the limitations, all of the risks.”
This means, that as far back as 2011, Israel had the ability to attack in Iran, but some cabinet members were reluctant to approve such an operation due to the risks involved, pointed out by Gantz.
And one more thing, according to Kfir: the possibility of an attack was raised again in 2012, but cancelled given the sensitive situation vis-à-vis the US, as Obama was running for his second presidential term at the time. But Ehud Barak was also reluctant to attack, not only because of the US but also because of other operational reasons.
The nuclear deal
Following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed on July 14th 2015 with Iran – which, I believe, was a rigged game on the part of Obama and the European Union, I expressed my opinion that a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities must take place immediately in an article I published in Israel Defense on August 31st, 2015.
In the article, I wrote that “If Israel does not attack the nuclear targets in Iran as soon as possible, this will snowball and gain momentum until it is unstoppable. In addition, it would appear that there are currently suitable conditions for an Israeli attack. While I received quite a number of comments – some supportive while other not – at the end of the day, my opinion was rejected.
Several years later, in September 2021, I wrote in a pamphlet published by the Begin-Saadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) of Bar-Ilan University, that “It can be clearly stated that the Iranian nuclear agreement was bad, because it not only enabled Tehran to continue its pursuit towards obtaining nuclear weapons, but it also supported financing its efforts to develop ballistic missiles, undermine Middle East stability, and spread terrorist activities worldwide.
“Therefore, returning to the deal would be an act of folly. The possibility of resurrecting the original agreement appears unlikely – both due to the lack of trust towards Iran given its attempts to hide its military plan, and due to the steps Iran has taken since May 2019 in establishing the situation of advancing towards becoming a nuclear-threshold state.
Since the signing of the JCPOA, the situation had deteriorated, and in 2017 the Iranians had already begun breeching it gradually, with small but persistent steps. Iran also began to increasingly avoid cooperation with the IAEA.
Finally, on January 5th 2020, Iran announced that it is no longer bound by any restrictions imposed by the JCPOA. But an exceptionally unusual step began on April 17th, 2021, when it was confirmed that Iran enriching uranium to 60% purity.
This is major, since the jump from 60% to 90% purity – the level required for a nuclear weapon – is very quick. The enrichment was carried out at the Natanz plant.
enrichment to 90% purity
The process of uranium enrichment to 90% purity has no other purpose for Iran other than the production of nuclear weapons. According to a recent IAEA report, as of this past October Iran had amassed 62.3 kg of 60% purity uranium. After this amount is enriched to 90% purity, it can be used to create at least two nuclear bombs.
Furthermore, in recent days Iran has begun to enrich uranium to 60% purity at its Fordow facility as well, using two centrifuge cascades, each containing 166 IR-6 centrifuges. This information relies also on a report by IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, from November 22. Up until now, only 1,044 IR-1 (the early model) centrifuges have been put to use at the plant.
Theoretically, the enrichment capacities of an IR-6 centrifuge are eight times higher than those of the IR-1. However, in practice, according to calculations done by Institute for Science and International Security, the actual enrichment capacity of the advanced centrifuges is about four times that of the IR-1.
In any case, this is very important progress as far as Iran is concerned, and highly worrisome for Israel. If Iran continues in its current pace, it can reach a nuclear weapon within one year. This, assuming that its ballistic missiles will also develop at this pace.
Therefore, it seems to me that the current state of disillusionment in the US and in Western Europe regarding Iran’s nuclear conduct on the one hand, and the anti-government riots in the country on the other – is quite suitable for attacking Iranian enrichment facilities.
I also believe that Israel can destroy Iran’s enrichment facilities on its own, without the participation or support of the US.
A common statement is that – since the Fordow facility, as well as large parts of Natanz, are underground – they will be very hard to destroy. But in my humble opinion, this disadvantage also has a great advantage, of which I do not believe is the time or place to go into details.
Lt. Col. (Res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek is an expert on nuclear physics and technology. He had previously served in the Israeli intelligence community as a senior researcher and analyst of worldwide and Middle East nuclear issues.
