A New Era for the IDF
Defense Minister Lieberman selected Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi as his candidate for the next IDF Chief of Staff. What are the challenges facing the new chief? Amir Rapaport analyzes the threats Kochavi will have to address upon assuming office
Amir Rapaport
| 01/11/2018
Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi / By Operationalcow48 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48246192
On March 5, 2002, Aviv Kochavi faced one of the most substantial challenges of his life. He was 38, a Colonel commanding the IDF Paratrooper Brigade assigned to capture the Kasbah of the town of Nablus, along with the IDF Golani Brigade (under the command of Col. Moshe "Chico" Tamir).
The battle on the Kasbah was one of the highlights of Operation Defensive Shield. Concerns of entanglement and heavy casualties (as was the case in the battle over the Jenin refugee camp, which started two days previously) provided the background. During the last briefing before the operation, Col. Kochavi hunched over maps wrapped in tight polythene sheets and illuminated by hand torches. In the darkness, he appeared calm and dispassionate.
The results of the battle, conducted that night, exceeded all expectations: the IDF promptly captured Nablus, eliminated about one hundred terrorists and apprehended hundreds, while sustaining only one KIA to "friendly fire." Checkmate for terrorism. Since then, many regard the battle of Nablus as a model of urban warfare. Armed forces around the world study it to this day.
Following that long night, Aviv Kochavi established his reputation as a "prince" setting his sights on the chambers of the IDF Chief of Staff. The expectations have been fulfilled, but the tactical chapter in Kochavi's career ended, and the challenges have changed completely, mainly compared to the challenges he had faced in his previous positions – as the general commanding IDF Northern Command, as the Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, and more recently as the Deputy Chief of Staff. What are the challenges facing Kochavi as the next Chief of Staff of the IDF?
The Most Pressing Challenge: the Gaza Strip Front in the South
The recent talk about a 'negotiated settlement' must not be taken too seriously: the situation vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip is still explosive, mainly owing to the fact that Israel is engaged in a chess game not opposite Hamas alone, but also opposite the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization, which serves the interests of Syria and Iran. These two countries aspire to settle the running score with Israel for the Israeli attacks in the north (we will address that challenge, too).
Aviv Kochavi is thoroughly familiar with the southern sector since his days as commander of the IDF Gaza Division (the highlight of his term in that position was the introduction of the "canopy of fire" concept for closing fire loops promptly on enemy targets in the dense theater of the Gaza Strip). Subsequently, as Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate during Operation Protective Edge, Israeli military intelligence under Kochavi's command erred by dealing specifically with each target, thereby missing a part of the bigger picture of the enemy's considerations – of which the IDF Intelligence became aware too late (this, of course, is hindsight – which is not a major feat).
Even today, any incident involving fire into Israel or the elimination of a Hamas/Jihad operative could reignite a new full-scale war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, where the political objective could be the annihilation of the rule of Hamas. Such a scenario can materialize even before Kochavi has replaced Eizenkot as Chief of Staff or at any time during his term in office. To a considerable extent, Egypt has the solution for the explosive situation in the Gaza Strip, as the Egyptian security forces hold the Gaza Strip by a sensitive organ – the ground and underground passages in Rafah, and Egypt has no qualms about making serious threats.
The Most Complex Challenge: the Northern Front
While the Gaza Strip front is complex, the "game" in the north is one of the most complex challenges in the world, mainly because of the double and triple game the Russian superpower is playing, as the Russians sit on Syrian soil and juggle with conflicting interests opposite Israel, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, and Iran. Hezbollah – another player in this theater – has an extensive range of interests of its own.
At the basis of the situation in the northern front stands the Israeli determination to prevent – even by force – Iranian consolidation in Syria and deny strategic weapons to Hezbollah, and the determination of the other side to accomplish both objectives. The Americans are not really interested in the developments in Syria. Kochavi will have to present ways to keep the miracle going – repeated strikes against Iranian objectives, with no Iranian resistance and without taking fire from the Russian SAM batteries delivered to Syria following the accidental shoot-down of the Russian aircraft.
The Most Critical Challenge: Iran
With all due respect to the northern and southern fronts, the threat of a nuclear weapon facing Israel is the only threat Israel can consider as "existential." Iran is up to its neck in domestic troubles and the problems in Syria and groaning under the burden of the renewed economic sanctions. This, of all things, makes the following scenario probable: one day, the leaders of Iran may appear on a stage in Tehran, and announce that they possess a nuclear weapon, whose development they had completed secretly owing to the revocation of the agreement with the USA. The Iranians may issue such an announcement whether or not they actually possess a real nuclear weapon. What will the IDF under Kochavi recommend to the Israeli political echelon in such a situation?
The Most Time-Consuming Challenge: Revising the IDF Structure
In the era of cyber and urban warfare, the nature of the military challenges changes very quickly. The IDF is currently introducing a substantial structural revision (the Gideon long-term plan, launched in 2018, enjoys the benefit of massive budgets). The problem is that reality changes much faster than the rate at which a sizable organization such as the IDF can change. Adapting the military to the new era is a challenge whose importance and complexity cannot be overstated. This challenge will face Kochavi throughout his term in office.
Kochavi will face two major decisions by the end of his very first year in office: a decision regarding the future aircraft of the IAF and possibly a decision regarding additional massive procurement of high-precision surface-to-surface missiles.
Starting with the aircraft, in the coming year, the IDF will have to make a decision regarding the acquisition of a new squadron of the Boeing F-15 fighters in a new version developed specifically for Israel, following the acquisition of two squadrons of F-35 Adir fighters (by Lockheed Martin) in previous years. The question that remains unanswered is whether the additional IAF squadron will fly F-15 fighters or – once again – F-35 fighters.
Current estimates maintain that the IDF will acquire new refueling tankers by Boeing and eight trainers for the IAF Flying School by Aermacchi of Italy. The ensuing battle involves the heavy lift helicopters selected to replace the aging CH-53 Yas'ur helicopters, namely – whether the IDF will acquire the new CH-53E Super Stallion helicopters by Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky or the Chinook helicopters by Boeing, plus a number of V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft.
As far as precision surface-to-surface missiles to ranges of up to 150 kilometers are concerned, Kochavi, in his last few positions, supported the plan of Minister of Defense Lieberman to acquire precision-guided munitions by IMI Systems. Kochavi may order another substantial acquisition of missiles to complete the vision of an IDF Missile Corps and to enable accurate attacks against distant pinpoint targets, with no need to employ aircraft that face the threat of state-of-the-art surface-to-air missiles.
The Most Sensitive Challenge: Military & Society
The following issue is the one the IDF least like to address in public, but it is another challenge awaiting the next Chief of Staff. Changes in Israel's social ethos and the fact that the men and women of the regular service have become a "punching bag" for the public have an adverse effect on the willingness of outstanding individuals to join the regular service as a long-term career. Some of the recent warnings of the IDF ombudsman regarding the preparedness of military for the next war (which infuriated departing Chief of Staff Eizenkot) have to do with the declining quality of the regular service personnel throughout the broader ranks of the IDF (not necessarily in the more prestigious units). Another aspect involves the unreasonable workload regular service personnel currently face after several rounds of cuts.
This debate could evolve into a fateful struggle over the nature of the IDF regular service, in an attempt to prevent the IDF from evolving into a mere "place of work" for their personnel, reminiscent, for example, of the Border Police and the Israel Police as a whole.
Defense Minister Lieberman selected Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi as his candidate for the next IDF Chief of Staff. What are the challenges facing the new chief? Amir Rapaport analyzes the threats Kochavi will have to address upon assuming office
Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi / By Operationalcow48 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48246192
On March 5, 2002, Aviv Kochavi faced one of the most substantial challenges of his life. He was 38, a Colonel commanding the IDF Paratrooper Brigade assigned to capture the Kasbah of the town of Nablus, along with the IDF Golani Brigade (under the command of Col. Moshe "Chico" Tamir).
The battle on the Kasbah was one of the highlights of Operation Defensive Shield. Concerns of entanglement and heavy casualties (as was the case in the battle over the Jenin refugee camp, which started two days previously) provided the background. During the last briefing before the operation, Col. Kochavi hunched over maps wrapped in tight polythene sheets and illuminated by hand torches. In the darkness, he appeared calm and dispassionate.
The results of the battle, conducted that night, exceeded all expectations: the IDF promptly captured Nablus, eliminated about one hundred terrorists and apprehended hundreds, while sustaining only one KIA to "friendly fire." Checkmate for terrorism. Since then, many regard the battle of Nablus as a model of urban warfare. Armed forces around the world study it to this day.
Following that long night, Aviv Kochavi established his reputation as a "prince" setting his sights on the chambers of the IDF Chief of Staff. The expectations have been fulfilled, but the tactical chapter in Kochavi's career ended, and the challenges have changed completely, mainly compared to the challenges he had faced in his previous positions – as the general commanding IDF Northern Command, as the Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, and more recently as the Deputy Chief of Staff. What are the challenges facing Kochavi as the next Chief of Staff of the IDF?
The Most Pressing Challenge: the Gaza Strip Front in the South
The recent talk about a 'negotiated settlement' must not be taken too seriously: the situation vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip is still explosive, mainly owing to the fact that Israel is engaged in a chess game not opposite Hamas alone, but also opposite the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organization, which serves the interests of Syria and Iran. These two countries aspire to settle the running score with Israel for the Israeli attacks in the north (we will address that challenge, too).
Aviv Kochavi is thoroughly familiar with the southern sector since his days as commander of the IDF Gaza Division (the highlight of his term in that position was the introduction of the "canopy of fire" concept for closing fire loops promptly on enemy targets in the dense theater of the Gaza Strip). Subsequently, as Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate during Operation Protective Edge, Israeli military intelligence under Kochavi's command erred by dealing specifically with each target, thereby missing a part of the bigger picture of the enemy's considerations – of which the IDF Intelligence became aware too late (this, of course, is hindsight – which is not a major feat).
Even today, any incident involving fire into Israel or the elimination of a Hamas/Jihad operative could reignite a new full-scale war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, where the political objective could be the annihilation of the rule of Hamas. Such a scenario can materialize even before Kochavi has replaced Eizenkot as Chief of Staff or at any time during his term in office. To a considerable extent, Egypt has the solution for the explosive situation in the Gaza Strip, as the Egyptian security forces hold the Gaza Strip by a sensitive organ – the ground and underground passages in Rafah, and Egypt has no qualms about making serious threats.
The Most Complex Challenge: the Northern Front
While the Gaza Strip front is complex, the "game" in the north is one of the most complex challenges in the world, mainly because of the double and triple game the Russian superpower is playing, as the Russians sit on Syrian soil and juggle with conflicting interests opposite Israel, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, and Iran. Hezbollah – another player in this theater – has an extensive range of interests of its own.
At the basis of the situation in the northern front stands the Israeli determination to prevent – even by force – Iranian consolidation in Syria and deny strategic weapons to Hezbollah, and the determination of the other side to accomplish both objectives. The Americans are not really interested in the developments in Syria. Kochavi will have to present ways to keep the miracle going – repeated strikes against Iranian objectives, with no Iranian resistance and without taking fire from the Russian SAM batteries delivered to Syria following the accidental shoot-down of the Russian aircraft.
The Most Critical Challenge: Iran
With all due respect to the northern and southern fronts, the threat of a nuclear weapon facing Israel is the only threat Israel can consider as "existential." Iran is up to its neck in domestic troubles and the problems in Syria and groaning under the burden of the renewed economic sanctions. This, of all things, makes the following scenario probable: one day, the leaders of Iran may appear on a stage in Tehran, and announce that they possess a nuclear weapon, whose development they had completed secretly owing to the revocation of the agreement with the USA. The Iranians may issue such an announcement whether or not they actually possess a real nuclear weapon. What will the IDF under Kochavi recommend to the Israeli political echelon in such a situation?
The Most Time-Consuming Challenge: Revising the IDF Structure
In the era of cyber and urban warfare, the nature of the military challenges changes very quickly. The IDF is currently introducing a substantial structural revision (the Gideon long-term plan, launched in 2018, enjoys the benefit of massive budgets). The problem is that reality changes much faster than the rate at which a sizable organization such as the IDF can change. Adapting the military to the new era is a challenge whose importance and complexity cannot be overstated. This challenge will face Kochavi throughout his term in office.
Kochavi will face two major decisions by the end of his very first year in office: a decision regarding the future aircraft of the IAF and possibly a decision regarding additional massive procurement of high-precision surface-to-surface missiles.
Starting with the aircraft, in the coming year, the IDF will have to make a decision regarding the acquisition of a new squadron of the Boeing F-15 fighters in a new version developed specifically for Israel, following the acquisition of two squadrons of F-35 Adir fighters (by Lockheed Martin) in previous years. The question that remains unanswered is whether the additional IAF squadron will fly F-15 fighters or – once again – F-35 fighters.
Current estimates maintain that the IDF will acquire new refueling tankers by Boeing and eight trainers for the IAF Flying School by Aermacchi of Italy. The ensuing battle involves the heavy lift helicopters selected to replace the aging CH-53 Yas'ur helicopters, namely – whether the IDF will acquire the new CH-53E Super Stallion helicopters by Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky or the Chinook helicopters by Boeing, plus a number of V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft.
As far as precision surface-to-surface missiles to ranges of up to 150 kilometers are concerned, Kochavi, in his last few positions, supported the plan of Minister of Defense Lieberman to acquire precision-guided munitions by IMI Systems. Kochavi may order another substantial acquisition of missiles to complete the vision of an IDF Missile Corps and to enable accurate attacks against distant pinpoint targets, with no need to employ aircraft that face the threat of state-of-the-art surface-to-air missiles.
The Most Sensitive Challenge: Military & Society
The following issue is the one the IDF least like to address in public, but it is another challenge awaiting the next Chief of Staff. Changes in Israel's social ethos and the fact that the men and women of the regular service have become a "punching bag" for the public have an adverse effect on the willingness of outstanding individuals to join the regular service as a long-term career. Some of the recent warnings of the IDF ombudsman regarding the preparedness of military for the next war (which infuriated departing Chief of Staff Eizenkot) have to do with the declining quality of the regular service personnel throughout the broader ranks of the IDF (not necessarily in the more prestigious units). Another aspect involves the unreasonable workload regular service personnel currently face after several rounds of cuts.
This debate could evolve into a fateful struggle over the nature of the IDF regular service, in an attempt to prevent the IDF from evolving into a mere "place of work" for their personnel, reminiscent, for example, of the Border Police and the Israel Police as a whole.
