Opinions

Giancarlo Elia Valori

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Russia’s Geopolitics and Strategy in the Future

Commentary:  The last complete Russian military doctrine was conceived during a very different phase of the East-West confrontation, before Russia's participation in the war in Syria and hence even before the new projection of Russian power onto the Mediterranean. In any case, 2020 is an end point for Russian military planners. Many things will be decided in the relations between East and West based on the military doctrine developed this year

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 5/07/2020 Contact author

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of his country's Security Council. Photo: Reuters

The Russian Constitutional Referendum of July 1, 2020

Commentary: What does President Putin want to achieve with his constitutional reform? Centralization of true power in his hands, up to two terms and even beyond but, on the other hand, distribution regulated by the central power to the regional governments. A new configuration of power in Russia until Putin finds his true heir apparent. If he ever finds him, of course.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 30/06/2020 Contact author

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The Theory of Hybrid Warfare as Developed by Generals Gerasimov and Primakov

Commentary:  Hybrid warfare is a way to combine the masses of infantry on the ground with new technologies that create a whole new domain of operations. Certainly technological superiority counts - indeed it is essential - but what really matters is the full and absolute political power on a territory or on a specific technology, operation, influence or Denial Area action.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 25/06/2020 Contact author

Polish tanks at a parade in Warsaw. Photo: Reuters

Poland’s Current Strategic Doctrine

Commentary: The central idea developed in Poland's National Security Strategy document is coordination of national security with all the other existing public or private security systems. The document, which was released on May 12, makes an excellent analysis of the general procedures of transformation between the economy and the social organization of peace and war, with sure and, above all, quick and invisible mechanisms.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 19/06/2020 Contact author

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Italy’s Current Economic Crisis

Commentary: The country's economic system is changing. Italy will not survive within the Euro area without quantitative easing, the Public Sector Purchase Programme, or any other means that may be devised by the European Central Bank

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 17/06/2020 Contact author

A meeting of Israel's Cabinet in May 2020. Photo: Reuters

The 35th Israeli Government and its Ministers

On April 20, 2020, an agreement was reached between Benny Gantz and Bibi Netanyahu, which led to the current government of national unity. Based on the agreement, Netanyahu will serve as prime minister until he is replaced by Gantz, the current defence minister, in November 2021. 

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 15/06/2020 Contact author

Libyan GNA troops during Operation "Volcano of Rage". Photo: Reuters

The New Libyan crisis and Turkey’s Presence in Tripolitania

Commentary: Currently a proxy war is being fought in Libya: Turkey and Qatar against Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia, who want everything but Turkish hegemony over Libya. And vice versa. First and foremost, Turkey wants a primary economic and strategic role in the future Libyan reconstruction. Second, the autonomous drilling of oil maritime areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 10/06/2020 Contact author

Hong Kong skyline. Photo: Reuters

China and Hong Kong

Commentary: The Chinese choice on the Hong Kong Security Law means only one thing: the end of the old Cold War between the West and the PRC, and hence the beginning of a new phase between China and the United States, which will be "hot" or "cold" depending on the circumstances. Therefore, China has no need in the future - not even financially - to have Hong Kong as a buffer zone with a relatively peaceful, but always radically adverse West

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 3/06/2020 Contact author

Photo: Reuters

Oil and Gas Geopolitics and its End

Commentary: The Covid-19 pandemic is redesigning all geopolitical scenarios, through oil, above all, but not only through it. Here not only energy counts, but rather the whole economic system which, however, is still currently oil-dependent. The world economy will not "recover" soon or, more exactly, will no longer be as it was before the pandemic

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 28/05/2020 Contact author