Commentary: The explosion has already changed the region radically. The effects will be the following: the obvious destabilization of Lebanon; the control and destabilization of the southern flank of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative; the annihilation of Hezbollah, without any more local networks and coverage; the creation of an endless war in Syria to destabilize Iran; and finally Turkey’s entry into its areas in Syria.
Commentary: An economic and intelligence war is developing between China and the United States. Nations are not corporations and they do not compete against one another as companies always do, but they certainly compete for markets, financial resources, technologies and cultural or influence operations.
Commentary: Now that the Warsaw Pact is annihilated and much of it has even entered the West, the centre of gravity of a Western countermove against the Russian Federation - now isolated from the context of the old Warsaw Pact - can only be Poland. The greater the coldness between Poland and the EU - not so much politically but strategically - the greater the link between Poland and the United States.
Commentary: An important strategic fact is that this new agreement pushes the traditional relationship between Syria and Russia aside, both defensively and technologically and politically. It is an attempt at strategic "substitution" that could have long-term effects.
Commentary: Under an Executive Order issued recently by Russia, nuclear weapons are defined as "only as means of deterrence" whose use is always an "extreme and compulsory" measure. But Russia foresees itself having a nuclear force which can quickly inflict as much damage as possible upon any attacker
Commentary: With the Ofek-16 satellite, Israel can observe the whole Middle East and other regions with great precision. Undoubtedly, the satellite is designed to closely monitor the Iranian nuclear program, but the race for satellite imagery intelligence has now spread to the entire Middle East and the Maghreb region.
Commentary: Libya's Intelligence Services have been without a leader since the death of Abdoullah Masoud Al Darsi in April. There are currently many more candidates than usual competing to replace him. Meanwhile, the Turkish Intelligence Service is now capable of deciding many posts and positions in the Tripoli government, pulling rank and underlining its military role in Libya.
Commentary: China does not need to wage war on India insofar as it can force the Indian government to do what China wants. China also wants to reaffirm mutual neutrality between China and India, while it thinks that Indian President Modi has above all nationalistic aims in the Himalayan region and in the arc of the Three Borders. In essence, Modi's India has chosen on which side to stand in the next "Cold War", which in any case has already started.
Commentary: Currently the Chinese strategic doctrine mainly concerns regional and limited wars, restrained both in time and space and in the use of force. This means that China does not yet have vast global interests to defend with a war. However, it will soon have them