Analysis | Gaps between Israeli, US Outlook on the “Day After” in the Gaza Strip
President Biden believes that the war creates an opportunity to reshape the Middle East system by establishing a regional alliance. Netanyahu thinks differently
IsraelDefense
| 16/01/2024
Israeli PM Netanyahu with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, last week. Photo: Kobi Gideon, GPO
More than 100 days since that dreadful October 7th, it seems that the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government are on an inevitable collision course in their strategic perceptions regarding the "day after."
President Biden believes that the war creates an opportunity to reshape the Middle East system by establishing a regional alliance between the “peace camp” Arab states and Israel, with the crown jewel being a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
A necessary condition for this and the willingness of Arab states to invest resources in the reconstruction of Gaza is the integration of the Palestinian Authority into the management processes of the Gaza Strip and the provision of a political horizon in the form of a two-state solution.
Moreover, it is quite clear today that in the current reality, the Palestinian issue will be central to the possibility of renewing normalization processes between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his coalition, though, present an opposite view. They argue that there is no practical difference between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and therefore, any possibility of granting it any control in the management and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip when the war is over should be completely ruled out ("neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan").
Accordingly, their approach includes several alternative options, such as a prolonged Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip or transferring civilian responsibility in Gaza to local clans.
According to reports, the perceptual gaps are causing anger in Washington, with the fear that the Prime Minister's policy may be driven by considerations of political survival. The strained relations can be highlighted by the fact that Biden and Netanyahu have not spoken on the phone for about three weeks, in contrast to frequent conversations during the first two months of the war.
It is worth mentioning that the relationship between Netanyahu and Biden during 2023 was characterized by significant tensions, particularly in light of American criticism of the government's promotion of the regime overhaul. Biden even notably refrained from inviting the Prime Minister for a visit to the White House.
The strong differences between the countries are particularly highlighted by the ironclad support that President Biden has provided to Israel since the war broke out. On the diplomatic front, the U.S. has given Israel defense backing and operational freedom to topple Hamas.
The U.S. also used its veto power against anti-Israel resolutions in the UN Security Council. This could be of significant importance if the Security Council is asked to endorse a possible decision by the International Court of Justice to immediately halt the fighting in Gaza.
In the defense realm, the United States has provided Israel with extensive military assistance crucial for conducting the war with high effectiveness and over an extended period. Furthermore, some of the munitions supplied to Israel come at the expense of aid to Ukraine (for example, 155mm artillery shells). Indeed, this underscores the importance that the American government attributes to supporting Israel’s military efforts, even at the expense of aid to other allied nations.
Regarding deterrence, President Biden cautioned Iran and Hezbollah from the first day of the war not to exploit the situation to act against Israel (“Don’t”). He even deployed two aircraft carriers to the region as a signal of deterrence (currently, one is still in the Gulf area).
Moreover, the American naval power in the Gulf region assists in intercepting missiles and UAVs launched by the Houthis towards Israel. The U.S. has also established a multinational maritime force to deal with the threat to shipping lanes following Houthi attacks against cargo ships. In recent days, the U.S. has even targeted Houthi assets.
The comprehensive American support serves to highlight its pivotal and vital role in the security and national resilience of the State of Israel.
The clash between the American and the Israeli strategies and perceptions may have far-reaching implications both in the immediate term on Israel's freedom of action to continue the fight against Hamas and Hezbollah and in the medium to long term on its overall capability to deal with the strengthening Iranian threat.
The Israeli government is faced with the opportunity to integrate into historical regional processes led by the US administration. The failure of the American effort could weaken the axis it leads and significantly impact Israel's strategic strengths.
The time has come for the Israeli government to demonstrate political wisdom and prioritize broad strategic interests over local politics.
President Biden believes that the war creates an opportunity to reshape the Middle East system by establishing a regional alliance. Netanyahu thinks differently
Israeli PM Netanyahu with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, last week. Photo: Kobi Gideon, GPO
More than 100 days since that dreadful October 7th, it seems that the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government are on an inevitable collision course in their strategic perceptions regarding the "day after."
President Biden believes that the war creates an opportunity to reshape the Middle East system by establishing a regional alliance between the “peace camp” Arab states and Israel, with the crown jewel being a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
A necessary condition for this and the willingness of Arab states to invest resources in the reconstruction of Gaza is the integration of the Palestinian Authority into the management processes of the Gaza Strip and the provision of a political horizon in the form of a two-state solution.
Moreover, it is quite clear today that in the current reality, the Palestinian issue will be central to the possibility of renewing normalization processes between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his coalition, though, present an opposite view. They argue that there is no practical difference between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and therefore, any possibility of granting it any control in the management and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip when the war is over should be completely ruled out ("neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan").
Accordingly, their approach includes several alternative options, such as a prolonged Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip or transferring civilian responsibility in Gaza to local clans.
According to reports, the perceptual gaps are causing anger in Washington, with the fear that the Prime Minister's policy may be driven by considerations of political survival. The strained relations can be highlighted by the fact that Biden and Netanyahu have not spoken on the phone for about three weeks, in contrast to frequent conversations during the first two months of the war.
It is worth mentioning that the relationship between Netanyahu and Biden during 2023 was characterized by significant tensions, particularly in light of American criticism of the government's promotion of the regime overhaul. Biden even notably refrained from inviting the Prime Minister for a visit to the White House.
The strong differences between the countries are particularly highlighted by the ironclad support that President Biden has provided to Israel since the war broke out. On the diplomatic front, the U.S. has given Israel defense backing and operational freedom to topple Hamas.
The U.S. also used its veto power against anti-Israel resolutions in the UN Security Council. This could be of significant importance if the Security Council is asked to endorse a possible decision by the International Court of Justice to immediately halt the fighting in Gaza.
In the defense realm, the United States has provided Israel with extensive military assistance crucial for conducting the war with high effectiveness and over an extended period. Furthermore, some of the munitions supplied to Israel come at the expense of aid to Ukraine (for example, 155mm artillery shells). Indeed, this underscores the importance that the American government attributes to supporting Israel’s military efforts, even at the expense of aid to other allied nations.
Regarding deterrence, President Biden cautioned Iran and Hezbollah from the first day of the war not to exploit the situation to act against Israel (“Don’t”). He even deployed two aircraft carriers to the region as a signal of deterrence (currently, one is still in the Gulf area).
Moreover, the American naval power in the Gulf region assists in intercepting missiles and UAVs launched by the Houthis towards Israel. The U.S. has also established a multinational maritime force to deal with the threat to shipping lanes following Houthi attacks against cargo ships. In recent days, the U.S. has even targeted Houthi assets.
The comprehensive American support serves to highlight its pivotal and vital role in the security and national resilience of the State of Israel.
The clash between the American and the Israeli strategies and perceptions may have far-reaching implications both in the immediate term on Israel's freedom of action to continue the fight against Hamas and Hezbollah and in the medium to long term on its overall capability to deal with the strengthening Iranian threat.
The Israeli government is faced with the opportunity to integrate into historical regional processes led by the US administration. The failure of the American effort could weaken the axis it leads and significantly impact Israel's strategic strengths.
The time has come for the Israeli government to demonstrate political wisdom and prioritize broad strategic interests over local politics.
