If Hamas Was Indeed Aided by Iran – the Mossad Had No Clue | Analysis
Arab intelligence experts reportedly told The Washington Post that planning for such an incursion likely began around mid-2022. However, no Israeli or American intelligence service had prior knowledge of this
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 10/10/2023
Photo: IDF website
One of the questions arising from Hamas' surprise attack on Saturday morning is whether it was aided by external actors – and if so, whom.
The terror organization itself has acknowledged financial and material support from Iran. However, the question remains whether Iran or another entity with a similar agenda, such as Hezbollah, was involved in planning the incursion into Israel and in training Hamas operatives.
Arab intelligence experts reportedly told The Washington Post that planning for such an incursion likely began around mid-2022. However, no Israeli or American intelligence service had prior knowledge of this. While Egypt claims to have warned Netanyahu, officials in Jerusalem deny this assertion.
In the Mossad, they have claimed since the days Yossi Cohen served as its chief that Israel has "more than eyes and ears in Iran." Current Mossad chief, David (Dadi) Barnea, continues to state that the Mossad will thwart the Iranian nuclear program.
In addition to the Iranian nuclear program, the Mossad is also involved in counter-terrorism. According to Israel's claim, Iranian agents captured abroad, while planning to harm Israelis, were apprehended partly due to Mossad intelligence.
The Mossad is also responsible for gathering intelligence on Hezbollah. This includes not only tracking arms shipments to Syria or Lebanon but also mapping the organization, its personnel's roles, its funding, and its connections to other terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Jihad. They also assist Palestinian terrorist organizations with logistics or training.
Despite all of these capabilities, the Mossad, like other Israeli intelligence agencies such as the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Shin Bet, knew nothing about the planned attack on Saturday, October 7, 2023. Symbolically, this surprise attack took place one day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. Only recently, the Mossad awarded itself prizes for its achievements during the Yom Kippur War.
No evidence Iran was involved
According to the assessment of Dr. Raz Zimt, an Israeli expert on Iran, the initiative for the incursion into Israel was taken by Hamas, with the possibility of some Iranian involvement behind the scenes.
In my opinion, two crucial distinctions are required. First, it is necessary to distinguish between Iranian support to Hamas, as well as the ongoing coordination between IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (the "Resistance Front") and between the initiative, organization, and execution of the Hamas operation, Zimt wrote on Twitter.
“Does Hamas need Iranian permission to operate? No. Was there early coordination between Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah? It's possible. But, in the end, it is an action by Hamas based on its own interests arising from the Palestinian reality.”
Advanced Planning of at Least a Year
According to The Washington Post, “The Palestinian militants behind the surprise weekend attack on Israel began planning the assault at least a year ago, with key support from Iranian allies who provided military training and logistical help as well as tens of millions of dollars for weapons.” This, according to current and former intelligence offices.
In the article, a Western intelligence source is quoted as saying, "If you train people how to use weapons, you expect them to use them eventually." The article also notes that the analysis conducted in the wake of the attack pointed to months of preparation by Hamas, starting at least from mid-2022.
After the war is over, if and when an investigative committee is established to examine the intelligence failure of October 2023, perhaps the reasons for the largest intelligence failure in Israel's history will become clear. Even in 1973, there was intelligence – albeit, its interpretation was mistaken.
Meanwhile, intelligence agencies are busy with questions for the near future. What awaits the IDF in Gaza if there is a ground incursion? Will Hezbollah enter the fray if IDF forces are inside Gaza? Will Israeli Arabs join? What about terror organizations in the West Bank? Will Iran get involved? Many questions. Let's hope there are answers.
Arab intelligence experts reportedly told The Washington Post that planning for such an incursion likely began around mid-2022. However, no Israeli or American intelligence service had prior knowledge of this
Photo: IDF website
One of the questions arising from Hamas' surprise attack on Saturday morning is whether it was aided by external actors – and if so, whom.
The terror organization itself has acknowledged financial and material support from Iran. However, the question remains whether Iran or another entity with a similar agenda, such as Hezbollah, was involved in planning the incursion into Israel and in training Hamas operatives.
Arab intelligence experts reportedly told The Washington Post that planning for such an incursion likely began around mid-2022. However, no Israeli or American intelligence service had prior knowledge of this. While Egypt claims to have warned Netanyahu, officials in Jerusalem deny this assertion.
In the Mossad, they have claimed since the days Yossi Cohen served as its chief that Israel has "more than eyes and ears in Iran." Current Mossad chief, David (Dadi) Barnea, continues to state that the Mossad will thwart the Iranian nuclear program.
In addition to the Iranian nuclear program, the Mossad is also involved in counter-terrorism. According to Israel's claim, Iranian agents captured abroad, while planning to harm Israelis, were apprehended partly due to Mossad intelligence.
The Mossad is also responsible for gathering intelligence on Hezbollah. This includes not only tracking arms shipments to Syria or Lebanon but also mapping the organization, its personnel's roles, its funding, and its connections to other terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Jihad. They also assist Palestinian terrorist organizations with logistics or training.
Despite all of these capabilities, the Mossad, like other Israeli intelligence agencies such as the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Shin Bet, knew nothing about the planned attack on Saturday, October 7, 2023. Symbolically, this surprise attack took place one day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. Only recently, the Mossad awarded itself prizes for its achievements during the Yom Kippur War.
No evidence Iran was involved
According to the assessment of Dr. Raz Zimt, an Israeli expert on Iran, the initiative for the incursion into Israel was taken by Hamas, with the possibility of some Iranian involvement behind the scenes.
In my opinion, two crucial distinctions are required. First, it is necessary to distinguish between Iranian support to Hamas, as well as the ongoing coordination between IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (the "Resistance Front") and between the initiative, organization, and execution of the Hamas operation, Zimt wrote on Twitter.
“Does Hamas need Iranian permission to operate? No. Was there early coordination between Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah? It's possible. But, in the end, it is an action by Hamas based on its own interests arising from the Palestinian reality.”
Advanced Planning of at Least a Year
According to The Washington Post, “The Palestinian militants behind the surprise weekend attack on Israel began planning the assault at least a year ago, with key support from Iranian allies who provided military training and logistical help as well as tens of millions of dollars for weapons.” This, according to current and former intelligence offices.
In the article, a Western intelligence source is quoted as saying, "If you train people how to use weapons, you expect them to use them eventually." The article also notes that the analysis conducted in the wake of the attack pointed to months of preparation by Hamas, starting at least from mid-2022.
After the war is over, if and when an investigative committee is established to examine the intelligence failure of October 2023, perhaps the reasons for the largest intelligence failure in Israel's history will become clear. Even in 1973, there was intelligence – albeit, its interpretation was mistaken.
Meanwhile, intelligence agencies are busy with questions for the near future. What awaits the IDF in Gaza if there is a ground incursion? Will Hezbollah enter the fray if IDF forces are inside Gaza? Will Israeli Arabs join? What about terror organizations in the West Bank? Will Iran get involved? Many questions. Let's hope there are answers.
