Israeli PM Lapid announces "historic agreement on the maritime border with Lebanon"

Lapid's announcement follows the official approval issued by Lebanese President Aoun this morning. However, Israel faces a bumpy road to final authorization and signing

Lebanese President Michel Aoun meets with Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab, the lead Lebanese negotiator on the maritime border deal with Israel, at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon October 11, 2022. Dalati Nohra/Handout via REUTERS

"We have reached a historic agreement on the maritime border with Lebanon. The draft agreement fully complies with the security and economic principles presented by Israel," announced Israel's Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, via Twitter just now, regarding the US-brokered pending agreement to determine the maritime border with Lebanon.

Lapid's announcement comes moments after Lebanese President, Michel Aoun, provided his official approval for the deal as it currently stands, stating that he hopes it will be signed soon.

“All our demands were met, the changes that we asked for were corrected. We protected Israel’s security interests and are on our way to an historic agreement," said Israel’s National Security Council Director and head of its negotiating team, Dr. Eyal Hulata, this morning.

"This is a historic achievement that will strengthen Israel's security, inject billions into its economy and ensure the stability of our northern border," added Lapid, who also said that he will convene the high-level security cabinet tomorrow, followed by special government session.

Last night, Lebanese and other Arab world media outlets reported that Lebanon is now “satisfied” with the final draft of the US-brokered agreement. English language Lebanese news site Naharnet quotes a “Lebanese source with knowledge of the negotiations, who told AFP that the latest draft "includes most of Lebanon's demands, or positions, and fulfills them."

The deal, which was hailed as a near fait accompli just a week ago, hit some major stumbling blocks on Thursday, when the Lebanese negotiation team demanded that several changes be made to the latest draft – with which Israel was satisfied, and also clarified no more concessions would be made.  

The Lebanese wished to amend the draft and change two points, which Israel deems a red line: the first, recognizing the line of buoys Israel has strung out to sea following its withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, as the official border which would end all future territorial disputes. According to reports, Lebanon wanted this to be marked a “de facto border”, which potentially has major legal implications on any further negotiations or demands.

The second point concerns the partial royalties Israel is supposed to receive if and when gas is found in the Qana prospect, on the Lebanese side. These royalties were meant to be transferred to Israel via TotalEnergies, which would operate the Lebanese rig, as part of the deal. However, Lebanon rejected this clause.

On Thursday morning last week, Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid announced that he will reject the deal if Lebanon does not retract its desired amendments, just hours after Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that the deal is close to being signed and will “prevent a definite war in the region.”

Following the setback, Mossad chief David (Dadi) Barnea warned Israel’s security cabinet that Iran’s proxy, Lebanese terror group Hezbollah might try to act against the country, and Israeli Minister of Defense, Benny Gantz, ordered the IDF to be on high alert in case the situation on the country’s northern border escalates.

These warning came as Israel prepared to activate its Karish (shark) gas rig, located just outside the disputed area and a few kilometers from the potential future Lebanese rig in the Qana field. Hezbolla’s chief Hassan Nasrallah has threatened repeatedly to harm Karish, with his organization even going as far as sending three drones at the rig in July, which were intercepted by the IDF.

Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian proxy deemed a terror organization by Israel, the US, the EU and other countries, is the de facto ruler of Lebanon, which has been struggling with political instability and a major economic crisis for years.

Undeterred, yesterday morning drilling Energean – in charge of developing the Karish area, announced that it had started its reverse flow testing procedures, pumping gas to its floating production facility offshore. This is an important step before starting production, which is expected to commence within the next few weeks.

“Whether an agreement is signed or not, we are prepared to defend our infrastructure and sovereignty,” said Israel’s Minister of Defense, Benny Ganz, on Thursday morning, following the reports of a glitch in the negotiations. “If Hezbollah seeks to harm those, the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah will bear a very heavy military price. We are not interested in a battle, but we are ready for it.”

Israeli sources have told local media that the Lebanese side was guilty of greed, of trying to get even more out of an already good deal. It now remains to be seen in the coming days what will be the next move by US mediator Hochstein. A US official said on Thursday that negotiations are at a “critical stage” and that “We remain committed to reaching a resolution and believe a lasting compromise is possible."

Now, it seems that "lasting compromise" has indeed been achieved.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who approved the agreemnt this morning, will complete his tenure at the end of the month and it is currently unclear who will replace him - and whether the situation in Lebanon will become even more chaotic than it is in the moment, and so it is estimated that he is eager to complete and sign the deal.

Israel, however, faces a much bumpier road to approval.

With general elections just three weeks away, it is unclear whether current prime minister Lapid – who is heading a transitional government – will be able to bring this agreement to final approval and signing, as massive objection from the Benjamin Netanyahu-headed opposition is expected.

Netanyahu has been vocal against this deal (though he reportedly has not seen it or been involved in recent negotiations), and has been trying to delegitimize it in the eyes of the Israeli public as surrender to terror. He is also expected to attempt thwarting the deal, perhaps by stalling at the Supreme Court.

If a deal is achieved and approved by the Israeli government, it will be presented to the public. Next, the government will vote on it, and it will then be brought before the Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

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