"We have the upper hand in terms of intelligence in Syria. We attack Iranian targets in Syria and can neutralize Iranian activities. It is difficult for the Iranians to take action against us in Syria. Lebanon has been devastated, and Hezbollah knows that an Israeli attack will bring additional destruction to the country. Therefore, the Iranians choose the maritime domain for a secret campaign against vessels connected to Israel, and launch suicide drones against tankers in the Persian Gulf."
Those comments were made by Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Amnon Sofrin, formerly head of the Intelligence Directorate of the Mossad, who also held many positions in intelligence, in collection and command, in the IDF. Two days after the attack on the Israeli-operated oil tanker at sea in which two foreign citizens were killed, Sofrin is of the opinion that the Iranians are not interested at this stage in escalating the situation with Israel, and therefore they choose the maritime domain, where they have an advantage.
The Iranians understand that if they escalate the situation, Israel will attack in Syria with increased force despite the Russian protests and the Russian attempt to show toughness. The Syrians are apparently complaining to the Russians that Israel is doing in Syria whatever it wants, and perhaps even the Russians are a little fed up with Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace. The Russians are there in the air and at sea, but Sofrin warns that "if the Russians take more serious steps, it will reduce the area in which we can operate in Syria."
How should Israel retaliate for the Iranian actions? "I don't see any reason not to strike Iranian oil tankers bringing oil to Syria and other destinations in the region. Cyber operations against Iranian targets are also very logical," said Soferin.
And what about U.S. President Biden, who aspires to revive the nuclear agreement with Tehran? "We won't be able to prevent the Americans from returning to the agreement. They have their own interests. However, we can and must do everything to reduce the damage from the revived agreement. The reduction of the damage means a request for compensation from the U.S. What kind of compensation? We should request the U.S. to supply Israel with additional capabilities that we currently don't have. We have to let the Americans know the main things that Israel is interested in, and needs, but right now are not being sold to us."