“Those Who Do Not Prepare For Nuclear Disaster – Will Not Recover From One”
Col. (res.) Ori Nissim Levi
| 28/08/2018
bigstockphoto
Opinions are divided regarding the question whether a large nuclear incident will take place somewhere in the world, and if so, when will it happen. As to nuclear weapons, it appears on the face of it that nowadays there is a high political and civic awareness of nuclear dangers. International associations and supervision bodies exist, and the number of nuclear weapons has been reduced. Nevertheless, when every country is driven by its national interest and has no concern for moral issues such as human rights or universal commitment, history proves that such interests are realized, perhaps principally, through war and force. This and other developments in fourth-generation nuclear weapons and super-sonic missiles with DF or Zircon increase the risk of conflicts.
The world today is flooded with opposing and cold-war political interests, as well as proxy wars between countries striving for power which possess nuclear weapons, at the highest level since the end of the Cold War: The tension between the USA and China regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea is rising; Russia under Putin has again become a very influential player and does not recoil from direct military intervention in Syria; Iran strives for nuclear weapons and at the same time operates militarily through its emissaries, Hezbollah and the Houthis, and escalates violence in the Middle East; North Korea is attempting to gain achievements in the international arena via nuclear weapons; and more.
Additionally, many accidents have occurred over the years (about 2,200 nuclear incidents worldwide) in which nuclear weapons or fissionable material have been lost (more than 51 nuclear bombs have gone missing, and there is no information as to their whereabouts). Most nuclear weapons around the world are decades old, and there is also a threat that terror organizations will acquire a nuclear bomb or fissionable material to make a dirty bomb. Because of all this, in 2018, the famous Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stands at two minutes to midnight. The last time it was this close to nuclear war was back in 1953 when the USA and the USSR carried out powerful hydrogen bomb experiments.
On the other hand, there are many reasons why a military nuclear event is unlikely to occur in the near future. For 70 years, despite tensions between the superpowers and violent clashes between their agents, there was no use of nuclear weapons. Also, the power of nuclear weapons and possible mishaps possess such powers of destruction and it is unclear as to their scope, that even the most radical leaders understand that threats are one thing, but actions are another.
Initiating a nuclear war is viewed as crossing a red line, and will likely result in the use of unrestrained and even devastating power against the initiator. By activating nuclear arms, the initiator gives others the right to act against him using all means. This position is backed by a research conducted by the author on the issue of nuclear defense over the past 3.5 years, which included interviews with senior personnel around the world, visits to regions where incidents have occurred, analyzing government reports, analyzing documents, and more. In addition, although there is a possibility for mishaps, safety mechanisms have developed, improved and reduced significantly the probability of them occurring.
With regard to civil nuclear incidents, it appears that reality hit us in the face in 2011 with the nuclear disaster at Fukushima (ranked 7, the highest level on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale [INES] of nuclear incidents), at a facility considered to be among the safest in the world. During the research, it emerged clearly that until this disaster, many countries around the world did not give enough weight to preventing accidents and being prepared for a disaster – because they believed that modern reactor design was safe and impervious to mishaps.
Afterward, preparedness plans were changed in most countries around the world because it was understood the hard way that such facilities, as safe as they may be, are not immune to catastrophic events. Even if we assume that nuclear facilities worldwide are resistant to mishaps and accidents, a completely mistaken assumption, it is still impossible to defend against extreme natural events that occur once in decades. There is no doubt that the question is not whether a catastrophic nuclear disaster will occur at a civilian facility but when.
The Chernobyl nuclear incident (which also ranked 7, the highest on the INES) and Fukushima were disasters resulting from different reasons. The author’s opinion is that a large-scale nuclear incident, ranked 6-7 on the INES, will occur within the next ten years, considering the growing tensions in the international arena regarding nuclear conflicts. This hypothesis derives from an extensive study that included visits to past incident sites.
If indeed war or a large-scale incident should occur, survivors will be those who planned and developed possibilities and actions to cope with such a disaster in the sense of population defense. The Operational Nuclear Defense Model, or ONDM, was developed to prepare for a nuclear incident at a state level. Although the widespread opinion throughout the world is that one does not prepare publicly for extreme nuclear scenarios, countries and bodies are slowly beginning to prepare. Preparation activity is already undertaken at various public levels in countries such as Japan, Sweden, USA, Canada, China, and others.
***
Col. (res.) Ori Nissim Levi is a nuclear defense expert
bigstockphoto
Opinions are divided regarding the question whether a large nuclear incident will take place somewhere in the world, and if so, when will it happen. As to nuclear weapons, it appears on the face of it that nowadays there is a high political and civic awareness of nuclear dangers. International associations and supervision bodies exist, and the number of nuclear weapons has been reduced. Nevertheless, when every country is driven by its national interest and has no concern for moral issues such as human rights or universal commitment, history proves that such interests are realized, perhaps principally, through war and force. This and other developments in fourth-generation nuclear weapons and super-sonic missiles with DF or Zircon increase the risk of conflicts.
The world today is flooded with opposing and cold-war political interests, as well as proxy wars between countries striving for power which possess nuclear weapons, at the highest level since the end of the Cold War: The tension between the USA and China regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea is rising; Russia under Putin has again become a very influential player and does not recoil from direct military intervention in Syria; Iran strives for nuclear weapons and at the same time operates militarily through its emissaries, Hezbollah and the Houthis, and escalates violence in the Middle East; North Korea is attempting to gain achievements in the international arena via nuclear weapons; and more.
Additionally, many accidents have occurred over the years (about 2,200 nuclear incidents worldwide) in which nuclear weapons or fissionable material have been lost (more than 51 nuclear bombs have gone missing, and there is no information as to their whereabouts). Most nuclear weapons around the world are decades old, and there is also a threat that terror organizations will acquire a nuclear bomb or fissionable material to make a dirty bomb. Because of all this, in 2018, the famous Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stands at two minutes to midnight. The last time it was this close to nuclear war was back in 1953 when the USA and the USSR carried out powerful hydrogen bomb experiments.
On the other hand, there are many reasons why a military nuclear event is unlikely to occur in the near future. For 70 years, despite tensions between the superpowers and violent clashes between their agents, there was no use of nuclear weapons. Also, the power of nuclear weapons and possible mishaps possess such powers of destruction and it is unclear as to their scope, that even the most radical leaders understand that threats are one thing, but actions are another.
Initiating a nuclear war is viewed as crossing a red line, and will likely result in the use of unrestrained and even devastating power against the initiator. By activating nuclear arms, the initiator gives others the right to act against him using all means. This position is backed by a research conducted by the author on the issue of nuclear defense over the past 3.5 years, which included interviews with senior personnel around the world, visits to regions where incidents have occurred, analyzing government reports, analyzing documents, and more. In addition, although there is a possibility for mishaps, safety mechanisms have developed, improved and reduced significantly the probability of them occurring.
With regard to civil nuclear incidents, it appears that reality hit us in the face in 2011 with the nuclear disaster at Fukushima (ranked 7, the highest level on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale [INES] of nuclear incidents), at a facility considered to be among the safest in the world. During the research, it emerged clearly that until this disaster, many countries around the world did not give enough weight to preventing accidents and being prepared for a disaster – because they believed that modern reactor design was safe and impervious to mishaps.
Afterward, preparedness plans were changed in most countries around the world because it was understood the hard way that such facilities, as safe as they may be, are not immune to catastrophic events. Even if we assume that nuclear facilities worldwide are resistant to mishaps and accidents, a completely mistaken assumption, it is still impossible to defend against extreme natural events that occur once in decades. There is no doubt that the question is not whether a catastrophic nuclear disaster will occur at a civilian facility but when.
The Chernobyl nuclear incident (which also ranked 7, the highest on the INES) and Fukushima were disasters resulting from different reasons. The author’s opinion is that a large-scale nuclear incident, ranked 6-7 on the INES, will occur within the next ten years, considering the growing tensions in the international arena regarding nuclear conflicts. This hypothesis derives from an extensive study that included visits to past incident sites.
If indeed war or a large-scale incident should occur, survivors will be those who planned and developed possibilities and actions to cope with such a disaster in the sense of population defense. The Operational Nuclear Defense Model, or ONDM, was developed to prepare for a nuclear incident at a state level. Although the widespread opinion throughout the world is that one does not prepare publicly for extreme nuclear scenarios, countries and bodies are slowly beginning to prepare. Preparation activity is already undertaken at various public levels in countries such as Japan, Sweden, USA, Canada, China, and others.
***
Col. (res.) Ori Nissim Levi is a nuclear defense expert
