What would Hamas and Hezbollah do if Israel attacks Iran?
Would Hezbollah use its vast missile arsenal? Will Hamas join the fight? And what will be the reaction of the Sunni Arab states? Dr. Ehud Eilam examines the possible implications of an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites
Hamas members in the Gaza Strip (Photo: AP)
Hezbollah, a non-state organization, is an Iranian protégé. It is possible Hezbollah would join its patron to strike Israel if the latter bombs Iran’s nuclear sites, in case Iran tries to produce a nuclear weapon.
As Hezbollah possesses approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles in Lebanon, Israel might absorb 1,500 rockets a day. Nonetheless, any confrontation with the Iranian proxy might be limited, as Hezbollah would not want its country and population to suffer significantly.
On more than one occasion, Israel has warned that it would make Lebanon pay dearly if Hezbollah were to attack. Furthermore, the Hezbollah is occupied on other fronts, mainly in Syria, fighting to save Assad, and might not have enough men to confront Israel as well.
Since seizing the Gaza Strip in 2007, Hamas has clashed with Israel several times. The organization has enjoyed Iranian support, including military aid, but Hamas’ refusal to assist Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s ally, against the former’s foes created a rift between Hamas and Iran.
Following the summer 2014 war, however, some in Hamas and Iran became closer. If Israel strikes Iran, the latter might urge Hamas to attack and launch rockets Israel. Yet Hamas is still struggling to recover from the 2014 confrontation. The Gaza Strip is in a terrible state and requires rehabilitation.
Hamas is aware that another clash with Israel, particularly such that would serve Iran, could turn the population in the Gaza Strip against Hamas. The group also knows that while Israel’s ground forces could not reach Iran, they could conquer the entire Gaza Strip and topple Hamas. It is thus unlikely that Hamas would join Iran in an attack against Israel.
Sunni Arab states – mainly those in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia – may decide to negotiate with Israel. Furthermore, they strongly oppose Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It is possible Saudi Arabia would collaborate with Israel on this matter, perhaps by allowing Israeli planes to pass through Saudi airspace en route to Iran.
Such a move could arouse protest among some Arabs out of hatred for Israel and their solidarity with a Muslim state, i.e. Iran. Yet when Israel attacked Hamas in the Gaza Strip during Operation Protective Edge, this did not prompt a wave of demonstrations in the Sunni Arab states, despite the fact that Hamas itself is Sunni Arab.
As Iran is primarily Shi’ and Persian, the Sunni Arab world might not be compelled to protest against Israel. In addition, the Sunni Arabs have more urgent concerns in the region, such as the Arab turmoil, the Islamic State, etc. While the Arab governments, particularly those in the Gulf, may officially condemn Israel, they will do nothing against it, and may in fact secretly welcome the raid.
In short, if left with no other choice, Israel may consider an attack on Iran worth the price and risk entailed.
***
This article is based on Ehud Eilam’s article: “Israel in the Face of Evolving Security Challenges,” the Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 19, No. 2, Summer 2015
Would Hezbollah use its vast missile arsenal? Will Hamas join the fight? And what will be the reaction of the Sunni Arab states? Dr. Ehud Eilam examines the possible implications of an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites
Hamas members in the Gaza Strip (Photo: AP)
Hezbollah, a non-state organization, is an Iranian protégé. It is possible Hezbollah would join its patron to strike Israel if the latter bombs Iran’s nuclear sites, in case Iran tries to produce a nuclear weapon.
As Hezbollah possesses approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles in Lebanon, Israel might absorb 1,500 rockets a day. Nonetheless, any confrontation with the Iranian proxy might be limited, as Hezbollah would not want its country and population to suffer significantly.
On more than one occasion, Israel has warned that it would make Lebanon pay dearly if Hezbollah were to attack. Furthermore, the Hezbollah is occupied on other fronts, mainly in Syria, fighting to save Assad, and might not have enough men to confront Israel as well.
Since seizing the Gaza Strip in 2007, Hamas has clashed with Israel several times. The organization has enjoyed Iranian support, including military aid, but Hamas’ refusal to assist Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s ally, against the former’s foes created a rift between Hamas and Iran.
Following the summer 2014 war, however, some in Hamas and Iran became closer. If Israel strikes Iran, the latter might urge Hamas to attack and launch rockets Israel. Yet Hamas is still struggling to recover from the 2014 confrontation. The Gaza Strip is in a terrible state and requires rehabilitation.
Hamas is aware that another clash with Israel, particularly such that would serve Iran, could turn the population in the Gaza Strip against Hamas. The group also knows that while Israel’s ground forces could not reach Iran, they could conquer the entire Gaza Strip and topple Hamas. It is thus unlikely that Hamas would join Iran in an attack against Israel.
Sunni Arab states – mainly those in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia – may decide to negotiate with Israel. Furthermore, they strongly oppose Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It is possible Saudi Arabia would collaborate with Israel on this matter, perhaps by allowing Israeli planes to pass through Saudi airspace en route to Iran.
Such a move could arouse protest among some Arabs out of hatred for Israel and their solidarity with a Muslim state, i.e. Iran. Yet when Israel attacked Hamas in the Gaza Strip during Operation Protective Edge, this did not prompt a wave of demonstrations in the Sunni Arab states, despite the fact that Hamas itself is Sunni Arab.
As Iran is primarily Shi’ and Persian, the Sunni Arab world might not be compelled to protest against Israel. In addition, the Sunni Arabs have more urgent concerns in the region, such as the Arab turmoil, the Islamic State, etc. While the Arab governments, particularly those in the Gulf, may officially condemn Israel, they will do nothing against it, and may in fact secretly welcome the raid.
In short, if left with no other choice, Israel may consider an attack on Iran worth the price and risk entailed.
***
This article is based on Ehud Eilam’s article: “Israel in the Face of Evolving Security Challenges,” the Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 19, No. 2, Summer 2015
