Analysis | The Threat from Yemen Should Be Taken in Proportion
While the Houthis are capable of aerial and maritime actions against Israel, the distance also makes tracking and thwarting the attacks easier
Yoel Guzansky
| 04/11/2023
Houthi fighters during a military maneuver near Sanaa, Yemen, October 30, 2023
With the ongoing war against Hamas and the deepening of the Israeli Defense Forces' ground operation in the Gaza Strip, there is a growing motivation on the part of Iran's proxies to intensify their attacks on Israel.
This is done in response to pressure from Iran, to demonstrate a "united front" from the Axis of Resistance, and to show solidarity with the Palestinians.
The Houthi militia, which controls large parts of Yemen and has received significant support from Iran and Hezbollah for many years, has joined the war against Israel. They have targeted Israel with multiple opportunities, launching missiles, drones, and UAVs.
The Yemeni arena is approximately 2,000 kilometers away from Eilat, a fact that enables a certain capability for actions from the air (various types of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles) and at sea (targeting Israeli vessels and the freedom of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait). However, the distance also makes tracking and thwarting attacks easier.
This necessitates Israel diverting attention and resources, particularly in the air and at sea, to the Red Sea region for defense efforts. Indeed, there have been reports of Israel moving maritime assets to this area.
It should be noted that a significant portion of Israeli maritime trade passes through the Red Sea via the port of Eilat, serving as a significant economic and trade corridor.
Yet, Houthis have no interest in sparking a significant regional escalation, especially because it would jeopardize their gains through their understandings with Saudi Arabia and the ceasefire in effect since April 2022.
Despite the Houthis' desire to show solidarity with Hamas and other members of the Axis of Resistance, the extent of Iranian influence over them is relatively lower compared to Iran's influence over groups like Hezbollah. The geographical distance and the absence of a land corridor between Iran and the Houthis make it challenging for Iran to support them effectively.
Any Israeli response would require prior consultation and coordination not only with the United States, which is not interested in expanding the conflict, but also with the Gulf states that are unwilling to see the conflict spill over into their territory.
The Houthis understand this and are attempting to sharpen the dilemma facing the Gulf states. The question is to what extent these states are willing to pick a side, aligning with the Americans and, consequently, with Israel, at the potential risk of jeopardizing the benefits they have gained from improving relations with Iran and the ceasefire with the Houthis.
Containment, for now
Israel should make an effort to try and contain the firing from the direction of Yemen in order to focus on its primary combat effort in Gaza. A significant response against the Houthis at this moment could trigger retaliation from them towards the Gulf states and potentially lead to a renewed conflict in Yemen and even a broader regional escalation.
Israel has shared interests with the Gulf states, which also wish to see the Houthis demise, in addition to that of Hamas. Israel should coordinate its actions with those states and learn from their experiences over the past seven years of fighting against the Houthis.
Intercepting the launches from Yemen underscores the limitations of the Axis of Resistance and highlights the effectiveness of the regionally-focused approach under the CENTCOM umbrella in dealing with the threat of missiles and drones from Iran and its proxies.
The Houthis can indeed register a certain achievement, especially on the psychological level. Their actions also serve to "fulfill their obligations" to the Axis of Resistance and Iran, particularly to Hamas, which may have anticipated a more active role in the fighting compared to other Axis members.
As Iran becomes more concerned about the weakened position of Hamas, the pressure on the Houthis to intensify their attacks may increase. The continued attacks from the Houthis will pose a challenge for Israel in containing them and could compel Israel to take actions that deter the Houthis.
Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former senior member of Israel’s National Security Council
While the Houthis are capable of aerial and maritime actions against Israel, the distance also makes tracking and thwarting the attacks easier
Houthi fighters during a military maneuver near Sanaa, Yemen, October 30, 2023
With the ongoing war against Hamas and the deepening of the Israeli Defense Forces' ground operation in the Gaza Strip, there is a growing motivation on the part of Iran's proxies to intensify their attacks on Israel.
This is done in response to pressure from Iran, to demonstrate a "united front" from the Axis of Resistance, and to show solidarity with the Palestinians.
The Houthi militia, which controls large parts of Yemen and has received significant support from Iran and Hezbollah for many years, has joined the war against Israel. They have targeted Israel with multiple opportunities, launching missiles, drones, and UAVs.
The Yemeni arena is approximately 2,000 kilometers away from Eilat, a fact that enables a certain capability for actions from the air (various types of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles) and at sea (targeting Israeli vessels and the freedom of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait). However, the distance also makes tracking and thwarting attacks easier.
This necessitates Israel diverting attention and resources, particularly in the air and at sea, to the Red Sea region for defense efforts. Indeed, there have been reports of Israel moving maritime assets to this area.
It should be noted that a significant portion of Israeli maritime trade passes through the Red Sea via the port of Eilat, serving as a significant economic and trade corridor.
Yet, Houthis have no interest in sparking a significant regional escalation, especially because it would jeopardize their gains through their understandings with Saudi Arabia and the ceasefire in effect since April 2022.
Despite the Houthis' desire to show solidarity with Hamas and other members of the Axis of Resistance, the extent of Iranian influence over them is relatively lower compared to Iran's influence over groups like Hezbollah. The geographical distance and the absence of a land corridor between Iran and the Houthis make it challenging for Iran to support them effectively.
Any Israeli response would require prior consultation and coordination not only with the United States, which is not interested in expanding the conflict, but also with the Gulf states that are unwilling to see the conflict spill over into their territory.
The Houthis understand this and are attempting to sharpen the dilemma facing the Gulf states. The question is to what extent these states are willing to pick a side, aligning with the Americans and, consequently, with Israel, at the potential risk of jeopardizing the benefits they have gained from improving relations with Iran and the ceasefire with the Houthis.
Containment, for now
Israel should make an effort to try and contain the firing from the direction of Yemen in order to focus on its primary combat effort in Gaza. A significant response against the Houthis at this moment could trigger retaliation from them towards the Gulf states and potentially lead to a renewed conflict in Yemen and even a broader regional escalation.
Israel has shared interests with the Gulf states, which also wish to see the Houthis demise, in addition to that of Hamas. Israel should coordinate its actions with those states and learn from their experiences over the past seven years of fighting against the Houthis.
Intercepting the launches from Yemen underscores the limitations of the Axis of Resistance and highlights the effectiveness of the regionally-focused approach under the CENTCOM umbrella in dealing with the threat of missiles and drones from Iran and its proxies.
The Houthis can indeed register a certain achievement, especially on the psychological level. Their actions also serve to "fulfill their obligations" to the Axis of Resistance and Iran, particularly to Hamas, which may have anticipated a more active role in the fighting compared to other Axis members.
As Iran becomes more concerned about the weakened position of Hamas, the pressure on the Houthis to intensify their attacks may increase. The continued attacks from the Houthis will pose a challenge for Israel in containing them and could compel Israel to take actions that deter the Houthis.
Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former senior member of Israel’s National Security Council
