Israel’s Dilemma: Will a Ground Invasion of Gaza Leave Israel More Volatile on its Other Fronts?
David Ivri, former Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, argues that it is a strategic mistake to invade Gaza from the ground, and he is likely not the only one in the security establishment who thinks so
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 10/10/2023
Photo: IDF spokesperson
Since the massacre in the Gaza border communities on Saturday morning, it is clear the State of Israel needs to do something against Hamas.
According to the IDF spokesperson, it took the army and the police about three days to prepare and clear the Gaza border area of terrorists, following the major intelligence and operational failure in Israeli history. Israeli communities have not been occupied by Arabs since 1948. In 2023, Hamas changed the course of history, and Jews in Israel no longer feel safe in their land.
After the first stage of clearing the Israeli territory from terrorists and the evacuation of communities adjacent to the fence, the IDF is expected to move on to the second stage, which involves shifting the battlefront into enemy territory.
The Israeli Air Force is currently engaged in comprehensive infrastructure destruction in Gaza, with thousands of tons of explosives being deployed since Saturday. Dozens of buildings have been destroyed, while simultaneously, the IDF is deploying ground forces to continue the demolition.
However, former senior officials in the security establishment, including David Ivri, the former Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, believe that entering Gaza would be a mistake. Journalist Uri Misgav (Haaretz) published Ivri's statements, where he mentioned that entering Gaza would play into the Iranian plan.
"Gaza is the trap we are entering, according to the Iranian plan. Gaza is not an existential threat and can be dealt with from the air and through economic pressure. If we enter Gaza, the trap can pose an existential threat," Ivri argued.
Journalist Avi Bar-Eli (The Marker) argues that a ground entry at this time would require significant budgetary changes, including opening up the 2024 budget that has already been approved by the Knesset. The 2023-2024 budgets are based on the Arrangements Law, which is, in turn, based in part on coalition agreements that allow the current government to function.
"In Operation Protective Edge, which lasted 50 days and was the longest operation since the Second Lebanon War, the IDF claimed costs of 9 billion shekels, of which the Ministry of Finance agreed to fund 7 billion shekels," writes Bar-Eli. "The daily cost of warfare in Gaza reached 50 million shekels a decade ago – from the air alone.”
Meanwhile, Israel has signaled that it is preparing its troops for a ground invasion, including the concentration of infantry and armored units. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that he has a green light from the United States and Western countries. The US has also signaled that it will support Israel in whatever is necessary and has even sent naval and air forces to the region to deter Hezbollah and Iran from entering the conflict.
However, it is still not clear what the next steps are. The number of Israeli casualties in the Gaza border massacre stands at 900 officially, and this number is expected to rise as more details of the massacre emerge. A ground entry into Gaza, even if limited and brief, is expected to come at a high human cost. There is also concern about the fate of the kidnapped soldiers.
Given all these considerations, a clear order has yet to be given to the army regarding what to do. The ball is in the court of the Prime Minister, the security cabinet, and the Knesset.
David Ivri, former Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, argues that it is a strategic mistake to invade Gaza from the ground, and he is likely not the only one in the security establishment who thinks so
Photo: IDF spokesperson
Since the massacre in the Gaza border communities on Saturday morning, it is clear the State of Israel needs to do something against Hamas.
According to the IDF spokesperson, it took the army and the police about three days to prepare and clear the Gaza border area of terrorists, following the major intelligence and operational failure in Israeli history. Israeli communities have not been occupied by Arabs since 1948. In 2023, Hamas changed the course of history, and Jews in Israel no longer feel safe in their land.
After the first stage of clearing the Israeli territory from terrorists and the evacuation of communities adjacent to the fence, the IDF is expected to move on to the second stage, which involves shifting the battlefront into enemy territory.
The Israeli Air Force is currently engaged in comprehensive infrastructure destruction in Gaza, with thousands of tons of explosives being deployed since Saturday. Dozens of buildings have been destroyed, while simultaneously, the IDF is deploying ground forces to continue the demolition.
However, former senior officials in the security establishment, including David Ivri, the former Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, believe that entering Gaza would be a mistake. Journalist Uri Misgav (Haaretz) published Ivri's statements, where he mentioned that entering Gaza would play into the Iranian plan.
"Gaza is the trap we are entering, according to the Iranian plan. Gaza is not an existential threat and can be dealt with from the air and through economic pressure. If we enter Gaza, the trap can pose an existential threat," Ivri argued.
Journalist Avi Bar-Eli (The Marker) argues that a ground entry at this time would require significant budgetary changes, including opening up the 2024 budget that has already been approved by the Knesset. The 2023-2024 budgets are based on the Arrangements Law, which is, in turn, based in part on coalition agreements that allow the current government to function.
"In Operation Protective Edge, which lasted 50 days and was the longest operation since the Second Lebanon War, the IDF claimed costs of 9 billion shekels, of which the Ministry of Finance agreed to fund 7 billion shekels," writes Bar-Eli. "The daily cost of warfare in Gaza reached 50 million shekels a decade ago – from the air alone.”
Meanwhile, Israel has signaled that it is preparing its troops for a ground invasion, including the concentration of infantry and armored units. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that he has a green light from the United States and Western countries. The US has also signaled that it will support Israel in whatever is necessary and has even sent naval and air forces to the region to deter Hezbollah and Iran from entering the conflict.
However, it is still not clear what the next steps are. The number of Israeli casualties in the Gaza border massacre stands at 900 officially, and this number is expected to rise as more details of the massacre emerge. A ground entry into Gaza, even if limited and brief, is expected to come at a high human cost. There is also concern about the fate of the kidnapped soldiers.
Given all these considerations, a clear order has yet to be given to the army regarding what to do. The ball is in the court of the Prime Minister, the security cabinet, and the Knesset.
