Israel-Korea Relations: Jerusalem Fails to Convince Seoul of the Iranian Threat
Despite Israeli eagerness to address the Iranian nuclear issue and despite the Israel-South Korea cooperation, which also threatens Seoul, South Korea continues to view Iran as an important channel for oil and business
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 13/09/2023
AAP Image/Mick Tsikas - AAPIMAGE via Reuters Connect
North Korea held yet another military parade in the recent days, during which advanced missile systems were displayed. This is the latest in a series of many military parades that have taken place in Pyongyang in the past and will continue in the future, and serves as further evidence of the government’s significant investment in its military capabilities.
Nuclear weapons, missiles, rockets, chemical, biological, and conventional artillery, submarines, and more – it appears that the North Korean dictatorship prefers to invest in its military capabilities rather than the development of its civilian population.
One of the countries benefiting from North Korea's extensive military investment, is Iran. According to publicly available information, Iran has acquired knowledge in the fields of nuclear technology and missile development from North Korea since 1979. Iran has also procured weaponry from North Korea during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and, according to estimates, has recently acquired North Korean weapons for the purpose of supplying proxy groups in Syria. Armament items of North Korean origin have also been found in the possession of Hamas in Gaza.
Despite fruitful cooperation between the two countries in the military sphere, Israel downplays North Korea's military support for Iran in its public discourse. In North Korea, as in Israel, the threat from North Korea is minimized, even though the government in Pyongyang conducts nuclear attack simulations against Seoul.
Recently, new attack UAVs have been unveiled in North Korea, most likely as a result of knowledge transfer from Iran. These missile systems resemble American systems that were downed in Iranian territory several years ago.
In both Israel and South Korea, it seems convenient for decision-makers to downplay the North Korea-Iran connection. Tal Inbar, an expert on missile issues and WMDs from the American research institute MDAA, recently visited South Korea and met with government officials and academics.
It's no secret: Knowledge flows between Pyongyang and Tehran - and vice versa
In an interview with IsraelDefense, Inbar explains how Seoul perceives the North Korea -Iran connection, which also directly influences Israel, as according to public reports, the DPRK has been passing knowledge on nuclear matters, missiles, and more to Iran over the past few decades.
"One phenomenon that Seoul has noticed is the reduction of the threat from the DPRK," Inbar explains. "For example, the recent missile launches from Pyongyang have hardly been covered in the media or research circles. It's possible that the diminished threat perception is due to the South Korean intelligence system's failure to detect the North's recent attempts.
"The engine used in the missile launches likely came from China or Ukraine, derived from a specific type of engine used in DPRK ballistic missiles. Such technology may have made its way from Ukraine in the past, possibly during one of the previous administrations' times in office.
"Why downplay this cooperation? One possible reason is that Seoul wants to preserve Iran as a future source of oil. Prior to the sanctions regime in 2017, South Korea imported 148 million barrels of crude and condensate from Iran, making Iran the third-largest supplier to Seoul in that year, according to data from the Korea National Oil Corp.
"Imports from Iran decreased significantly in 2018-2019 until they stopped entirely in 2020. Currently, there is a process underway to release frozen funds from South Korea to Iran under American supervision. Despite current sanctions preventing the import of Iranian oil, Seoul does not want to close off this channel for the future.
"Additionally, Iran is a significant trading partner for Seoul in other areas. These connections between the countries may lead to cognitive dissonance (a gap between known facts and threat perception) in Seoul, also regarding the recent exposure of DPRK's new military technologies. This is a rapid leap after years of stagnation in DPRK's military drone development, likely based on external information, which can be estimated to have come from Iran.
"Researchers in Seoul are struggling to accept that the knowledge comes from Iran. These are tools that could be used to target South Korea during a war. The prevailing opinion in Seoul is that the DPRK concealed these developments and suddenly exposed them. This is a strange approach, as North Korea typically follows a systematic and procedural approach to unveiling its military developments, whether in the field of nuclear technology, missiles, submarines, or other military assets. Why deviate from this customary practice this time? When they don't want to believe it, alternative explanations are found.
In your opinion, what Israeli policy is required towards Seoul?
"It's possible to formulate a policy with two main aspects: preserving trade relations between South Korea and Iran and sharing intelligence with Seoul. When I was in Seoul, they asked why Israel doesn't share materials from its nuclear archive that indicate the connection between North Korea and Iran regarding nuclear matters. Either such materials don't exist, or the Israeli intelligence agencies or government don't want to share them for some specific reason. (It's possible that in Israel, they don't fully grasp the diplomatic potential of 'trading' this information with Korea).
"Korean researchers who are interested in promoting an agenda opposite to Iran's need such materials to persuade decision-makers in South Korea," Inbar concludes.
The concern: Israel could trigger an Arab boycott
Another expert I interviewed for the article is Dr. Alon Levkovich, a specialist on Korea from Bar Ilan University. “First of all, we must remember that in the Korean DNA, there is a perception that relations with Israel are sensitive, as there is a fear of an Arab boycott,” Levkovich explains.
“Koreans are concerned for their energy security, which is largely based on Gulf states, including Iran. Anything that might threaten their relationships with Gulf countries, they will try to avoid.
“This is also why a South Korean president has never visited Israel, while Israeli presidents have visited Seoul. There's a fear of an Arab boycott. Israel had expected that the Abraham Accords would lead to a change, but that hasn't happened yet.'
“Another important point in the Korean political perception is that they do everything to promote business. They don't have any geopolitical-imperialistic agenda like China, the U.S., or Russia. South Korea is a regional middle power. While they do have a foreign aid arm under the name of KOICA, which promotes the values of a free economy and democracy, fundamentally, Seoul thinks pragmatically.
“With such a political mindset, Koreans try to avoid expressing opinions in international conflicts. For example, during the Gulf War, when Americans pressured them to participate, they sent engineering forces for reconstruction without entering combat.
“Even in terms of sanctions, Koreans don't always see eye to eye with the U.S. It depends on the political inclination of the president. There have been cases where Seoul refrained from imposing sanctions on recalcitrant countries and only did so when pressured by the Americans.
“When the nuclear agreement was signed, South Korea's previous president was the first to arrive in Tehran with a delegation of 250-300 businessmen who signed deals worth billions between the two countries. If and when there's a new agreement, the mechanism is expected to repeat itself with the current government.
"In terms of trade between the countries, Israel exported $1.3 billion to South Korea in 2022 and imported about $2.8 billion from South Korea. For comparison, trade between Seoul and Saudi Arabia stands at tens of billions of dollars per year.
“Given these conditions, it's doubtful that Israel has much leverage over Seoul in the context of Iran. It's not just about oil and gas; there are projects between the two countries worth tens of billions of dollars. Even the Americans struggle to exert influence on Seoul in geopolitical matters.
“What can Israel do? It can increase intelligence cooperation with Seoul regarding Iran-North Korea relations, with the hope that solid intelligence material could prompt Seoul to move in a direction favorable to Israel. Another option is to activate the Jewish lobby in the US, which could pressure the administration to push Seoul to take a tougher stance against Iran.
Billions of dollars in annual trade relations
Bruce Bechtol is a professor of political science at Angelo State University, an award-winning expert on North Korea, and a former intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) from 1997 to 2003, where he eventually served as a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Joint Chiefs of Staff's J2 Directorate at the Pentagon.
"Unlike the previous South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, who worked to improve relations with Pyongyang, current president Yoon Suk-Yeol takes a more active approach towards North Korea," explains Bechtol.
"The relations between North Korea and Iran are not new. Sometimes people tend to think that these two countries have friendly ties, but let me burst that misconception for you - there is nothing in common between Iran and North Korea except money. The cultural gap between these countries is enormous, and apart from financial interests, they don't share a common camp. Of course, that doesn't prevent them from cooperating in areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles, chemical, biological, and more.
"Between Iran and North Korea, there are trade relations worth billions each year, mainly revolving around weaponry and military knowledge. Among other things, there have been recent reports that Iran has been assisting North Korea in smuggling weapons to Russia during the conflict with Ukraine.
“What has facilitated these relations is the American failure to break the North Korea-Iran connection over the years. Pyongyang was very good at extracting money from the United States in exchange for unfulfilled promises.
"In the nuclear aspect, the US knows how to monitor the shipment of nuclear materials worldwide. This is why, according to estimates, the Iranians preferred to acquire knowledge from North Korea rather than the final product.
"In the context of relations between the Koreas regarding Iran, one must understand that Seoul does not view Iran as a direct threat, as Israel perceives it. The Iranian threat to Seoul is indirect, through knowledge sharing with Pyongyang. However, even here, we need to put an asterisk - in most cases, North Korea is the seller, and Iran is the buyer, except in the field of chemical, biological, and missiles, as we've seen recently.
"The money coming from the sale of knowledge or products to Iran is managed by 'Office 39' in North Korea, the organization responsible for bringing foreign currency into the country. This money goes, among other things, to military projects and nuclear development, according to the leader's decision."
Why does Seoul downplay the threat from North Korea?
"Iran is not perceived as a direct threat to Seoul. Additionally, South Korea has no energy reserves (oil or gas) of its own and depends on Gulf countries, including Iran. Therefore, Seoul's interest is to minimize the Iranian threat for the sake of energy stability. Even in Israel, they downplay the threat from North Korea, despite the fact that some of the knowledge in areas like missiles, chemical, and biological weapons, and nuclear came from North Korea."
In your opinion, what should be Israel's policy towards Seoul?
"With Seoul, it's all about business. For decades, American oil producers have wanted to market energy to Seoul as an alternative to sources in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It almost succeeded during Trump's presidency when the White House supported oil producers, but then the Democratic government came (with a climate agenda). I don't think it's going to happen in the near future. Therefore, Seoul is expected to remain dependent on sources in the Gulf and the Middle East."
Despite Israeli eagerness to address the Iranian nuclear issue and despite the Israel-South Korea cooperation, which also threatens Seoul, South Korea continues to view Iran as an important channel for oil and business
AAP Image/Mick Tsikas - AAPIMAGE via Reuters Connect
North Korea held yet another military parade in the recent days, during which advanced missile systems were displayed. This is the latest in a series of many military parades that have taken place in Pyongyang in the past and will continue in the future, and serves as further evidence of the government’s significant investment in its military capabilities.
Nuclear weapons, missiles, rockets, chemical, biological, and conventional artillery, submarines, and more – it appears that the North Korean dictatorship prefers to invest in its military capabilities rather than the development of its civilian population.
One of the countries benefiting from North Korea's extensive military investment, is Iran. According to publicly available information, Iran has acquired knowledge in the fields of nuclear technology and missile development from North Korea since 1979. Iran has also procured weaponry from North Korea during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and, according to estimates, has recently acquired North Korean weapons for the purpose of supplying proxy groups in Syria. Armament items of North Korean origin have also been found in the possession of Hamas in Gaza.
Despite fruitful cooperation between the two countries in the military sphere, Israel downplays North Korea's military support for Iran in its public discourse. In North Korea, as in Israel, the threat from North Korea is minimized, even though the government in Pyongyang conducts nuclear attack simulations against Seoul.
Recently, new attack UAVs have been unveiled in North Korea, most likely as a result of knowledge transfer from Iran. These missile systems resemble American systems that were downed in Iranian territory several years ago.
In both Israel and South Korea, it seems convenient for decision-makers to downplay the North Korea-Iran connection. Tal Inbar, an expert on missile issues and WMDs from the American research institute MDAA, recently visited South Korea and met with government officials and academics.
It's no secret: Knowledge flows between Pyongyang and Tehran - and vice versa
In an interview with IsraelDefense, Inbar explains how Seoul perceives the North Korea -Iran connection, which also directly influences Israel, as according to public reports, the DPRK has been passing knowledge on nuclear matters, missiles, and more to Iran over the past few decades.
"One phenomenon that Seoul has noticed is the reduction of the threat from the DPRK," Inbar explains. "For example, the recent missile launches from Pyongyang have hardly been covered in the media or research circles. It's possible that the diminished threat perception is due to the South Korean intelligence system's failure to detect the North's recent attempts.
"The engine used in the missile launches likely came from China or Ukraine, derived from a specific type of engine used in DPRK ballistic missiles. Such technology may have made its way from Ukraine in the past, possibly during one of the previous administrations' times in office.
"Why downplay this cooperation? One possible reason is that Seoul wants to preserve Iran as a future source of oil. Prior to the sanctions regime in 2017, South Korea imported 148 million barrels of crude and condensate from Iran, making Iran the third-largest supplier to Seoul in that year, according to data from the Korea National Oil Corp.
"Imports from Iran decreased significantly in 2018-2019 until they stopped entirely in 2020. Currently, there is a process underway to release frozen funds from South Korea to Iran under American supervision. Despite current sanctions preventing the import of Iranian oil, Seoul does not want to close off this channel for the future.
"Additionally, Iran is a significant trading partner for Seoul in other areas. These connections between the countries may lead to cognitive dissonance (a gap between known facts and threat perception) in Seoul, also regarding the recent exposure of DPRK's new military technologies. This is a rapid leap after years of stagnation in DPRK's military drone development, likely based on external information, which can be estimated to have come from Iran.
"Researchers in Seoul are struggling to accept that the knowledge comes from Iran. These are tools that could be used to target South Korea during a war. The prevailing opinion in Seoul is that the DPRK concealed these developments and suddenly exposed them. This is a strange approach, as North Korea typically follows a systematic and procedural approach to unveiling its military developments, whether in the field of nuclear technology, missiles, submarines, or other military assets. Why deviate from this customary practice this time? When they don't want to believe it, alternative explanations are found.
In your opinion, what Israeli policy is required towards Seoul?
"It's possible to formulate a policy with two main aspects: preserving trade relations between South Korea and Iran and sharing intelligence with Seoul. When I was in Seoul, they asked why Israel doesn't share materials from its nuclear archive that indicate the connection between North Korea and Iran regarding nuclear matters. Either such materials don't exist, or the Israeli intelligence agencies or government don't want to share them for some specific reason. (It's possible that in Israel, they don't fully grasp the diplomatic potential of 'trading' this information with Korea).
"Korean researchers who are interested in promoting an agenda opposite to Iran's need such materials to persuade decision-makers in South Korea," Inbar concludes.
The concern: Israel could trigger an Arab boycott
Another expert I interviewed for the article is Dr. Alon Levkovich, a specialist on Korea from Bar Ilan University. “First of all, we must remember that in the Korean DNA, there is a perception that relations with Israel are sensitive, as there is a fear of an Arab boycott,” Levkovich explains.
“Koreans are concerned for their energy security, which is largely based on Gulf states, including Iran. Anything that might threaten their relationships with Gulf countries, they will try to avoid.
“This is also why a South Korean president has never visited Israel, while Israeli presidents have visited Seoul. There's a fear of an Arab boycott. Israel had expected that the Abraham Accords would lead to a change, but that hasn't happened yet.'
“Another important point in the Korean political perception is that they do everything to promote business. They don't have any geopolitical-imperialistic agenda like China, the U.S., or Russia. South Korea is a regional middle power. While they do have a foreign aid arm under the name of KOICA, which promotes the values of a free economy and democracy, fundamentally, Seoul thinks pragmatically.
“With such a political mindset, Koreans try to avoid expressing opinions in international conflicts. For example, during the Gulf War, when Americans pressured them to participate, they sent engineering forces for reconstruction without entering combat.
“Even in terms of sanctions, Koreans don't always see eye to eye with the U.S. It depends on the political inclination of the president. There have been cases where Seoul refrained from imposing sanctions on recalcitrant countries and only did so when pressured by the Americans.
“When the nuclear agreement was signed, South Korea's previous president was the first to arrive in Tehran with a delegation of 250-300 businessmen who signed deals worth billions between the two countries. If and when there's a new agreement, the mechanism is expected to repeat itself with the current government.
"In terms of trade between the countries, Israel exported $1.3 billion to South Korea in 2022 and imported about $2.8 billion from South Korea. For comparison, trade between Seoul and Saudi Arabia stands at tens of billions of dollars per year.
“Given these conditions, it's doubtful that Israel has much leverage over Seoul in the context of Iran. It's not just about oil and gas; there are projects between the two countries worth tens of billions of dollars. Even the Americans struggle to exert influence on Seoul in geopolitical matters.
“What can Israel do? It can increase intelligence cooperation with Seoul regarding Iran-North Korea relations, with the hope that solid intelligence material could prompt Seoul to move in a direction favorable to Israel. Another option is to activate the Jewish lobby in the US, which could pressure the administration to push Seoul to take a tougher stance against Iran.
Billions of dollars in annual trade relations
Bruce Bechtol is a professor of political science at Angelo State University, an award-winning expert on North Korea, and a former intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) from 1997 to 2003, where he eventually served as a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Joint Chiefs of Staff's J2 Directorate at the Pentagon.
"Unlike the previous South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, who worked to improve relations with Pyongyang, current president Yoon Suk-Yeol takes a more active approach towards North Korea," explains Bechtol.
"The relations between North Korea and Iran are not new. Sometimes people tend to think that these two countries have friendly ties, but let me burst that misconception for you - there is nothing in common between Iran and North Korea except money. The cultural gap between these countries is enormous, and apart from financial interests, they don't share a common camp. Of course, that doesn't prevent them from cooperating in areas such as nuclear weapons, missiles, chemical, biological, and more.
"Between Iran and North Korea, there are trade relations worth billions each year, mainly revolving around weaponry and military knowledge. Among other things, there have been recent reports that Iran has been assisting North Korea in smuggling weapons to Russia during the conflict with Ukraine.
“What has facilitated these relations is the American failure to break the North Korea-Iran connection over the years. Pyongyang was very good at extracting money from the United States in exchange for unfulfilled promises.
"In the nuclear aspect, the US knows how to monitor the shipment of nuclear materials worldwide. This is why, according to estimates, the Iranians preferred to acquire knowledge from North Korea rather than the final product.
"In the context of relations between the Koreas regarding Iran, one must understand that Seoul does not view Iran as a direct threat, as Israel perceives it. The Iranian threat to Seoul is indirect, through knowledge sharing with Pyongyang. However, even here, we need to put an asterisk - in most cases, North Korea is the seller, and Iran is the buyer, except in the field of chemical, biological, and missiles, as we've seen recently.
"The money coming from the sale of knowledge or products to Iran is managed by 'Office 39' in North Korea, the organization responsible for bringing foreign currency into the country. This money goes, among other things, to military projects and nuclear development, according to the leader's decision."
Why does Seoul downplay the threat from North Korea?
"Iran is not perceived as a direct threat to Seoul. Additionally, South Korea has no energy reserves (oil or gas) of its own and depends on Gulf countries, including Iran. Therefore, Seoul's interest is to minimize the Iranian threat for the sake of energy stability. Even in Israel, they downplay the threat from North Korea, despite the fact that some of the knowledge in areas like missiles, chemical, and biological weapons, and nuclear came from North Korea."
In your opinion, what should be Israel's policy towards Seoul?
"With Seoul, it's all about business. For decades, American oil producers have wanted to market energy to Seoul as an alternative to sources in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It almost succeeded during Trump's presidency when the White House supported oil producers, but then the Democratic government came (with a climate agenda). I don't think it's going to happen in the near future. Therefore, Seoul is expected to remain dependent on sources in the Gulf and the Middle East."
