Opinion: IDF will not go to war in Iran soon
Contrary to reports in the Israeli media, it is doubtful that the IDF received an order to prepare for an attack on Iran by the date that Trump's term ends. Tactically and legally, such an attack is very unlikely
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 30/11/2020
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
Contrary to reports in the Israeli media, it is doubtful that the IDF officially received an instruction to prepare for war with Iran by January, when a new US administration takes office. The IDF has been preparing, routinely, for at least 20 years for the possible scenario of war with Iran. Again, there apparently isn't a definite date for this kind of war.
The rumors in the Israeli media are connected, apparently, to the elections in the US and the one approaching in Israel. War with Iran is perceived by the two leaders – Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu- as a powerful move that will bring them more votes. Of course, assuming that the war does not end with large numbers of Israeli graves. The goal of the attack, if it happens, would be to thwart the Iranian nuclear program.
Is it possible? Well, it depends on whom you ask. The assessment is that important parts of the nuclear program are deep underground. Wiping out this kind of program from the air alone, without tactical nuclear weaponry, requires the right kind of bombs. The US has them, Israel doesn't. The right kinds of aircraft for carrying these bombs are also needed. And even if you have them, it is not certain that it will be enough to wipe out those important parts. That is to say, even if the US cooperates, and attacks Iran from the air together with Israel, there is still a scenario in which the military nuclear program will not be affected. A ground attack and occupation of parts of Iran is not on the agenda.
Another aspect is American authorization of the attack. Although Trump is the president and commander-in-chief, war of this scale with Iran requires the approval of the houses of Congress. And he won't get it. Certainly not by January while the process of a new administration taking office is underway. Trump may want to be re-elected in 2024, but the public will not forgive him. Even today some parts of the American public don't forgive Bush for the war in Iraq. Nuclear weapons weren't found there.
Those are the complications of such a war. And what about the Iranian response? In Tehran they won't sit quietly. I wrote not long ago about the missile capabilities of Iran. Some are via underground bases that are not known to Israeli or US intelligence. Iran is a big country. The intelligence services of the two countries apparently know a lot, but not everything. As such, an American attack will apparently spark a missile attack on Israel and American bases in the Persian Gulf region. The goal of the Iranians will be to cause as much death and damage needed for deterrence purposes. They might even use Hezbollah against Israel from Lebanon and Syria.
That is to say, it can be assumed that an attack on Iran will bring an Iranian response in different forms, and cause several hundred deaths – soldiers and civilians (on the home front). In Israel and the US, this will be accompanied by tens to hundreds of millions of shekels worth of costs from the destruction of buildings, acquisition of munitions, maintenance of weapons during the war, and compensation to the families of the dead and wounded for decades to come.
In conclusion, a war against Iran is an alternative, if it will indeed thwart the Iranian military nuclear program. Is this kind of war possible without partial occupation of Iran? Highly doubtful. Is the US ready "to go all the way" two months before a new administration takes over in the White House? Apparently not. Is Israel willing to go all the way for this kind of war? Highly doubtful. As such, every rumor like this apparently involves a lot of politics. Reality? A little bit less.
Contrary to reports in the Israeli media, it is doubtful that the IDF received an order to prepare for an attack on Iran by the date that Trump's term ends. Tactically and legally, such an attack is very unlikely
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
Contrary to reports in the Israeli media, it is doubtful that the IDF officially received an instruction to prepare for war with Iran by January, when a new US administration takes office. The IDF has been preparing, routinely, for at least 20 years for the possible scenario of war with Iran. Again, there apparently isn't a definite date for this kind of war.
The rumors in the Israeli media are connected, apparently, to the elections in the US and the one approaching in Israel. War with Iran is perceived by the two leaders – Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu- as a powerful move that will bring them more votes. Of course, assuming that the war does not end with large numbers of Israeli graves. The goal of the attack, if it happens, would be to thwart the Iranian nuclear program.
Is it possible? Well, it depends on whom you ask. The assessment is that important parts of the nuclear program are deep underground. Wiping out this kind of program from the air alone, without tactical nuclear weaponry, requires the right kind of bombs. The US has them, Israel doesn't. The right kinds of aircraft for carrying these bombs are also needed. And even if you have them, it is not certain that it will be enough to wipe out those important parts. That is to say, even if the US cooperates, and attacks Iran from the air together with Israel, there is still a scenario in which the military nuclear program will not be affected. A ground attack and occupation of parts of Iran is not on the agenda.
Another aspect is American authorization of the attack. Although Trump is the president and commander-in-chief, war of this scale with Iran requires the approval of the houses of Congress. And he won't get it. Certainly not by January while the process of a new administration taking office is underway. Trump may want to be re-elected in 2024, but the public will not forgive him. Even today some parts of the American public don't forgive Bush for the war in Iraq. Nuclear weapons weren't found there.
Those are the complications of such a war. And what about the Iranian response? In Tehran they won't sit quietly. I wrote not long ago about the missile capabilities of Iran. Some are via underground bases that are not known to Israeli or US intelligence. Iran is a big country. The intelligence services of the two countries apparently know a lot, but not everything. As such, an American attack will apparently spark a missile attack on Israel and American bases in the Persian Gulf region. The goal of the Iranians will be to cause as much death and damage needed for deterrence purposes. They might even use Hezbollah against Israel from Lebanon and Syria.
That is to say, it can be assumed that an attack on Iran will bring an Iranian response in different forms, and cause several hundred deaths – soldiers and civilians (on the home front). In Israel and the US, this will be accompanied by tens to hundreds of millions of shekels worth of costs from the destruction of buildings, acquisition of munitions, maintenance of weapons during the war, and compensation to the families of the dead and wounded for decades to come.
In conclusion, a war against Iran is an alternative, if it will indeed thwart the Iranian military nuclear program. Is this kind of war possible without partial occupation of Iran? Highly doubtful. Is the US ready "to go all the way" two months before a new administration takes over in the White House? Apparently not. Is Israel willing to go all the way for this kind of war? Highly doubtful. As such, every rumor like this apparently involves a lot of politics. Reality? A little bit less.
