Commentary | For Israel, American Aircraft Carriers Do Not Come for Free

While Israel has been undergoing a process of Americanization for many decades, recent surges in nationalism will require moderation. Israel's survival hinges on its collaboration with the Western coalition

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken participates in the Israeli war cabinet’s meeting on Friday, November 3rd 2023

The Swords of Iron War represents a battle of ideologies, with Israel aligned with the American-Western alliance. In essence, Israel will need to embrace the values, morals, economy, and culture closely associated with the White House and Europe.

While Israel has been undergoing a process of Americanization for many decades, recent surges in nationalism will require moderation. Israel's survival hinges on its collaboration with the Western coalition.

This contest can be viewed as the Western world pitted against the anti-Western world, reminiscent of the world wars of the 21st century. Though it may not resemble past world wars, it shares similar characteristics. This conflict centers around a clash of values, morals, cultures, and economies, with each side vying for influence.

The opposing forces comprise Iran, Russia, China, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and numerous other proxies spread across the Middle East and Africa. Together, they form the axis of opposition, seeking to impose a distinct set of values, morals, cultures, and economic systems on the world, in contrast to the prevailing American-centric order.

Israel's role in the Western axis

In this geopolitical landscape, Israel finds itself firmly positioned within the axis led by the United States and the Western world. The recent arrival of aircraft carriers and strategic bombers in the Middle East on October 7th, coinciding with atrocities in the Gaza Strip, sheds light on the intricate dynamics at play.

While the Western world unequivocally condemns the senseless massacre of innocent civilians, the motives run deeper. The survival of Israel is not the sole driver behind the military and political support it receives from countries like the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy. The catalyst for their involvement lies in a confluence of events, including Hamas's attacks on Israel, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the threats posed to Europe, collectively creating a critical mass that endangers Western society's axis.

It's essential to recognize that the support extended to Hamas by Russia, China, and Iran isn't rooted in genuine concern for the Palestinian cause. Rather, these nations seize the opportunity presented by Israel's perceived military vulnerability against Hamas, thereby exploiting a chink in the armor of the Western world's axis.

As Napoleon's historical general Clausovich once argued, when you identify a weakness in your adversary's defenses, swift mobilization is key to undermining the enemy. Recognizing this vulnerability on Saturday, October 7th, the White House issued a stern message to the so-called "axis of evil," prompting a reallocation of resources to confront this emerging threat.

From the Israeli perspective, this isn't merely "another regional war" that the IDF can handle single-handedly. It marks the inception of a new era in axis warfare. Israel's allegiance lies firmly with the Western world axis, as demonstrated by the arrival of American aircraft carriers in the region. Such support doesn't come without cost, and it underscores the necessity for Israel to align itself with Western values, cultures, and interests to secure its future in an ever-evolving global landscape.

By equating Hamas with ISIS, the countries within the axis of good can forge a unified military and political coalition, mirroring the alliances formed by Iraq and Syria in recent years. Currently, coalition forces are engaged in the fight against ISIS in the Middle East. If both organizations are perceived as threats of equal magnitude, the nations within the Axis of Good, led by the United States, face the challenge of addressing Hamas's war while simultaneously combating ISIS.

Analyzing the post-war landscape

In the wake of the recent Gaza conflict, the United States is taking steps to reassert its influence in the Middle East, a region where its sway had been diminishing since the withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan. It's clear that a substantial Western military presence will persist in the Middle East at least until the end of President Biden's current term, which concludes in November 2024.

There will be mounting pressure to transition control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority as the U.S. government has expressed a desire to expedite the two-state solution. To sweeten the deal, the White House enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia and the Israel-Saudi agreement on Jerusalem, though this support will likely necessitate territorial concessions.

Israel, on its part, will need to conduct a swift and thorough investigation into the security lapses that contributed to the recent conflict. It must take prompt corrective actions, which may involve personnel changes, reorganization of the security apparatus, reallocation of resources, and the reconstruction of the Gaza border.

In Israel's political arena, Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to remain in office for the foreseeable future, as he has shown no intention of resigning, and a vote of no confidence in the Knesset is unlikely to succeed.

However, Netanyahu will have to navigate two substantial pressures simultaneously. On one side, he will face pressure from the U.S. and Europe to advance negotiations for a permanent settlement with the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. The White House has already voiced its support for such negotiations.

On the other hand, a significant portion of the coalition's supporters favor the annexation of territories and are in favor of stricter conditions for Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.

Balancing these contrasting pressures will be a formidable challenge for Netanyahu. He may try to evade the White House's pressure by hoping for a Republican victory in the upcoming presidential election on November 8, with former President Trump's return to the office being his preferred outcome.

If the Republicans do win the presidential election, Israel might revert to a "divide and rule" strategy between Gaza and the West Bank. However, if President Biden secures re-election, the emergence of a Palestinian state is a likely scenario.

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