Israel’s Finance Ministry Does Not Provide a Monetary Forecast for Military Governance in Gaza
Israel has not yet presented a plan for the day after, and Gulf states argue that there will be no funding for the reconstruction and management of Gaza without Palestinian Authority authorization and negotiations for a permanent arrangement
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 16/12/2023
The Swords of Iron War has passed its 70th day, and diplomatic pressure on Israel in the context of the "day after" question is increasing. Meanwhile, Israel has not presented a coherent plan for what happens after the end of the battles.
If Israel decides to establish a military government in Gaza (again) and manage the lives of the Palestinians, nearly two million people, the Israeli taxpayer will have to fund it.
It is important to remember that in the aftermath of the battles, the IDF may seek additional funding for inventory and various reforms following the military failure of October 7th.
Israel’s local authorities, which were affected by the war, will seek funds for reconstruction. Funding for the rehabilitation of the Gaza-adjacent communities will be required, and the administration established to address the communities in the north will also seek financial support.
Funds will also be needed to address the needs of nearly 250,000 people who have been displaced from their homes during the war to hotels or other locations.
In other words, the state treasury will need to allocate a significant amount of funds, in addition to the coalition funds required for the government to continue holding onto the reins of power.
In addition to all of these, as mentioned, one must factor in the annual cost of managing a military government in Gaza. How much does it cost to govern a military authority that oversees two million people?
I asked the treasury, which replied by stating that it would not address this issue.
The rehabilitation of Gaza
Another question I posed to the Finance Ministry had to do with the reconstruction of Gaza. According to reports in the international media, the two main sponsors for thu future reconstruction, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, claimed that they do not intend to fund anything without negotiations on a permanent arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Meaning, that should Israel choose not to move in that direction, the Israeli taxpayer may be required to bear the burden of the reconstruction of Gaza, either in full or in part. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars.
Also to this question, I did not receive an answer.
The treasury’s disregard for these questions is perplexing, especially considering that concurrently, it is engaging in discussions on amending the state budget for the year 2024. How is it possible to plan a budget for 2024 without addressing issues such as a military government or the reconstruction of Gaza?
If Israel declares it will not establish a military government and will not reconstruct Gaza, the question arises: What will the two million people in Gaza, most of whom are left without shelter, employment, or regular access to electricity, water, food, and healthcare, do?
Security for Israelis – how?
How does Jerusalem intend to provide security to the residents of Israel if in Gaza a humanitarian crisis, marked by poverty, hunger, and diseases, evolves into a time bomb? Regardless of the political views, this is a practical issue that, if not addressed, is likely to explode in Israel’s face. Again.
Meanwhile, the United States and Europe are pressing Israel to transfer civilian responsibility to the Palestinian Authority. If this happens, it can be speculated that funds from the Gulf, Europe, and possibly the United States, may flow into the reconstruction of Gaza.
It can be speculated that the IMF might also provide loans for the reconstruction of Gaza with American guarantees.
However, in Israel, one can assume that there will be a desire to avoid such a scenario. The control of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank will now symbolize, more than ever, the de facto foundation of the Palestinian state. The demand for territorial contiguity between the two regions will arise swiftly, and Israel may find it difficult to refuse.
It would indeed be absurd that, following the brutal massacre of Israeli civilians with approximately 1,300 murdered and hundreds abducted, the Palestinians would receive a state.
Until now, the Israeli position has been to separate Gaza and the West Bank to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. This strategy, however, has strengthened Hamas over the years, culminating in the demonstration of its power in the massacre of October 7th.
In summary, if Israel decides not to align itself with the Gulf states, the United States, and Europe and does not allow the Palestinian Authority to govern both Gaza and the West Bank together, as mentioned, some of the costs for the administration and reconstruction of Gaza may fall on the Israeli taxpayer.
In such a case, one can hope that the treasury, despite its public silence on the matter, is working through potential scenarios.
Israel has not yet presented a plan for the day after, and Gulf states argue that there will be no funding for the reconstruction and management of Gaza without Palestinian Authority authorization and negotiations for a permanent arrangement
The Swords of Iron War has passed its 70th day, and diplomatic pressure on Israel in the context of the "day after" question is increasing. Meanwhile, Israel has not presented a coherent plan for what happens after the end of the battles.
If Israel decides to establish a military government in Gaza (again) and manage the lives of the Palestinians, nearly two million people, the Israeli taxpayer will have to fund it.
It is important to remember that in the aftermath of the battles, the IDF may seek additional funding for inventory and various reforms following the military failure of October 7th.
Israel’s local authorities, which were affected by the war, will seek funds for reconstruction. Funding for the rehabilitation of the Gaza-adjacent communities will be required, and the administration established to address the communities in the north will also seek financial support.
Funds will also be needed to address the needs of nearly 250,000 people who have been displaced from their homes during the war to hotels or other locations.
In other words, the state treasury will need to allocate a significant amount of funds, in addition to the coalition funds required for the government to continue holding onto the reins of power.
In addition to all of these, as mentioned, one must factor in the annual cost of managing a military government in Gaza. How much does it cost to govern a military authority that oversees two million people?
I asked the treasury, which replied by stating that it would not address this issue.
The rehabilitation of Gaza
Another question I posed to the Finance Ministry had to do with the reconstruction of Gaza. According to reports in the international media, the two main sponsors for thu future reconstruction, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, claimed that they do not intend to fund anything without negotiations on a permanent arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Meaning, that should Israel choose not to move in that direction, the Israeli taxpayer may be required to bear the burden of the reconstruction of Gaza, either in full or in part. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars.
Also to this question, I did not receive an answer.
The treasury’s disregard for these questions is perplexing, especially considering that concurrently, it is engaging in discussions on amending the state budget for the year 2024. How is it possible to plan a budget for 2024 without addressing issues such as a military government or the reconstruction of Gaza?
If Israel declares it will not establish a military government and will not reconstruct Gaza, the question arises: What will the two million people in Gaza, most of whom are left without shelter, employment, or regular access to electricity, water, food, and healthcare, do?
Security for Israelis – how?
How does Jerusalem intend to provide security to the residents of Israel if in Gaza a humanitarian crisis, marked by poverty, hunger, and diseases, evolves into a time bomb? Regardless of the political views, this is a practical issue that, if not addressed, is likely to explode in Israel’s face. Again.
Meanwhile, the United States and Europe are pressing Israel to transfer civilian responsibility to the Palestinian Authority. If this happens, it can be speculated that funds from the Gulf, Europe, and possibly the United States, may flow into the reconstruction of Gaza.
It can be speculated that the IMF might also provide loans for the reconstruction of Gaza with American guarantees.
However, in Israel, one can assume that there will be a desire to avoid such a scenario. The control of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank will now symbolize, more than ever, the de facto foundation of the Palestinian state. The demand for territorial contiguity between the two regions will arise swiftly, and Israel may find it difficult to refuse.
It would indeed be absurd that, following the brutal massacre of Israeli civilians with approximately 1,300 murdered and hundreds abducted, the Palestinians would receive a state.
Until now, the Israeli position has been to separate Gaza and the West Bank to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. This strategy, however, has strengthened Hamas over the years, culminating in the demonstration of its power in the massacre of October 7th.
In summary, if Israel decides not to align itself with the Gulf states, the United States, and Europe and does not allow the Palestinian Authority to govern both Gaza and the West Bank together, as mentioned, some of the costs for the administration and reconstruction of Gaza may fall on the Israeli taxpayer.
In such a case, one can hope that the treasury, despite its public silence on the matter, is working through potential scenarios.
