Opinion| Nightmare Scenario: If Iran Crosses the Nuclear Threshold — What Should Be Done?

This is a fictional, future-oriented scenario, born of the writer's imagination.

One morning, the State of Israel awakens to dramatic news: Iran has successfully conducted a nuclear test. Iran is no longer a threshold state — it is now a nuclear power. Tehran has joined the exclusive club of India, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, the United States, Britain, and France.

Israel is now faced with an unbearable dilemma: what to do. Talks and negotiations between U.S. and Iranian representatives, mediated by Oman and others, have failed. A new American agreement with the regime in Tehran has proven ineffective. The International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna is now irrelevant. UN inspectors are no longer monitoring Iranian facilities. The UN Security Council did not prevent this development. Tehran, which long claimed its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes, has completed a weapons program and carried out a successful nuclear test.

An Existential Threat to Israel

Rightfully, Israel views Iran’s nuclear achievement as a tangible, existential threat. Since the rise of the Ayatollahs, the regime has repeatedly threatened Israel’s destruction — a UN member state openly calling for the annihilation of another UN member state.

Before discussing potential responses, it is to be hoped that, in the secret vaults of the Israeli government, the IDF, Military Intelligence, Mossad, National Security Council, and other relevant bodies, there are ready-to-activate contingency plans for precisely such a grim scenario — political, diplomatic, military, and security responses to the reality of a nuclear Iran.

A Middle Eastern Balance of Terror?

Theoretically, some might argue that a balance of terror could emerge in the Middle East, similar to the Cold War standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union — where nuclear weapons prevented direct war. But a true balance of terror requires two rational actors. If Iran is now nuclear, does Israel also possess nuclear weapons to maintain the balance?

Israel, for its part, has long maintained a policy of ambiguity: no confirmation, no denial, no public discussion. There are no signs that Israel intends to abandon this policy.

However, international organizations and media are not bound by Israeli ambiguity. Here’s a brief selection of publicly available information easily accessible with a few keystrokes:

Wikipedia: Estimates suggest Israel possesses between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads, deliverable by F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Dolphin-class submarines, and Jericho ballistic missiles; The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Estimates suggest it has between 100 and 200 plutonium-based warheads; Nagasaki University's Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition: Since the 1960s, Israel has had ballistic missiles, aerial bombs, and submarines capable of nuclear delivery.

Perplexity, a newer AI-driven search engine: Most estimates place Israel’s arsenal between 90 and 400 warheads; SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) 2024 estimates: 90–300 nuclear warheads.

Israel’s reported capabilities include a three-layer delivery system: F-15 and F-16 fighter jets based at Tel Nof and Hatzerim airbases, Jericho ballistic missiles (including an intercontinental version with a range of up to 11,500 km), and Dolphin-class submarines armed with cruise missiles. Some reports suggest Israel also possesses tactical nuclear weapons and neutron bombs.

Military Options and Their Limitations

An arms race between Israel and Iran would differ sharply from the U.S.-Soviet model. The Cold War superpowers never publicly threatened each other with annihilation, unlike Iran’s threats toward Israel.

In reality, nuclear weapons do not need to be used to exert devastating influence. The mere possession of such weapons by a hostile regime enables nuclear blackmail. A nuclear Iran could demand that Israel halt military operations, withdraw from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank, dismantle its own defenses, or cede control over Jerusalem’s Temple Mount — all under the threat, even implicit, of nuclear force. Such coercion could lead to either war or capitulation, neither a tolerable outcome.

Offensive options: Attacking a nuclear-armed state is extraordinarily dangerous and could unleash catastrophe across entire regions, affecting millions.

Defensive options: Israel’s existing air defense systems — Arrow, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and future laser-based systems — are primarily designed for conventional missiles. Defending against nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, even small tactical ones, is a far more daunting challenge.

Conclusion: Act Before It’s Too Late

The Iranian nuclear threat must be neutralized long before the nightmare scenario becomes reality. Once Iran becomes fully nuclear, the risk of catastrophe is almost irreversible. Nuclear weapons are not just tools of war; they are doomsday devices.

One option is to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities during this current phase, when Iran is still considered a "threshold" nuclear state. A strike could be Israeli or a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.

Aggressive Diplomacy: A Last Window of Opportunity?

A final window of opportunity may exist now, as U.S.-Iranian negotiations resume. There is still a chance for a diplomatic solution — but not the old model of drawn-out talks and ineffective agreements. A new, robust, and sophisticated diplomatic strategy is needed.

This will require the full arsenal of knowledge, experience, cunning, and negotiating skills. It will require involving regional and global players who share Israel’s concerns.

Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are as terrified of a nuclear Iran as Israel is. They must be enlisted in a broad coalition to prevent a devastating Middle Eastern nuclear arms race — one that could soon see Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey seeking nuclear arms of their own.

This is a challenge tailor-made for President Trump, the self-proclaimed master of deal-making. But this is no ordinary deal. Nuclear weapons are not luxury toys; they are instruments of mass death.