Analysis | Population Transfer from Gaza? The IDF Stuck in Gridlock
Under American pressure, the IDF is being tasked with carrying out a population transfer of Palestinian residents from Gaza. However, already deep into a prolonged war, the IDF does not know how to practically implement this directive
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
The Israeli government faces a complex challenge in the war in Gaza, as it demands the IDF to carry out a transfer of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip in accordance with an American directive. However, reality shows that the IDF is struggling to implement this, and the government has not presented a clear plan to end the fighting beyond the idea of a full transfer. This situation, after nearly two years of war, raises serious questions about the government's strategic planning capabilities—not only in Gaza but also in relation to other fronts such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
The Demand for Transfer and the IDF's Struggles
Under American pressure, the Israeli government has instructed the IDF to execute a transfer of Palestinian residents from Gaza. Yet, the IDF, already in the midst of a prolonged war, does not know how to practically implement such an order. Forcibly relocating a population presents immense logistical challenges alongside moral and legal dilemmas. Additionally, the expected international response could further complicate the operation. This situation exposes a gap between the government’s political demands and the military’s operational capabilities.
After nearly two years of fighting, the Israeli government has yet to present an exit strategy for the war beyond the idea of a full transfer of Gaza’s population. The lack of a strategic plan for post-war rehabilitation in Gaza reflects a failure of long-term vision. A transfer, even if partially successful, is not a complete solution—it does not address the roots of the conflict and does not guarantee stability. The absence of a clear plan leaves Israel trapped in a cycle of ongoing violence with no defined end.
The Absence of Alternatives to Transfer
The problem is exacerbated by the lack of any viable alternative to a population transfer. Neither the Israeli government nor the White House has put forward a plan for an alternative governance structure to replace Hamas in Gaza. Hamas continues to rule the Strip, and no Palestinian or international actor is willing or able to take its place. The absence of an alternative means that even if a partial transfer occurs, Gaza could be left without stable governance, leading to further chaos. This is a significant strategic failure, as waging war without a clear political plan for what follows is a recipe for continued instability.
At the same time, the IDF is taking steps to reduce the living space of Gaza’s residents, aiming to increase pressure on them to leave the Strip. Actions such as blocking off areas and destroying infrastructure make life in Gaza more difficult and worsen the humanitarian crisis. However, this step does not guarantee the achievement of a population transfer, as many residents may remain despite the harsh conditions. The result is unnecessary suffering for the civilian population without significant progress toward a clear strategic goal.
Pause and Expansion of Living Space
Nevertheless, there is an expectation that as part of an emerging deal, there will be a temporary pause in physical pressure by the IDF, and the living space for Gaza residents will be expanded. Such a pause might temporarily ease conditions for the population, but it is not a real solution. Without a comprehensive plan to accompany it, the relief will be short-lived, and the situation could quickly return to its previous state. This once again highlights the government's lack of strategic planning, relying on temporary tactical measures instead of a comprehensive vision.
The fact that the Israeli government has failed to formulate a plan to end the war after nearly two years is a testament to a deep strategic failure. A prolonged war with no defined objectives harms Israel, Gaza, and regional stability as a whole. This uncertainty leaves the country in a reactive mode, rather than leading proactive initiatives that could bring resolution.
Questions About Strategic Planning Capability
The situation in Gaza raises serious questions about the Israeli government's capacity for strategic planning. How can a government fail to formulate an endgame plan for a war after such a long period? Why are there no alternatives to transfer or plans for alternative governance? These questions go beyond Gaza—they also pertain to other fronts, such as the Iranian and Syrian fronts and the one involving Turkey. Strategic weakness in Gaza could reflect similar issues in dealing with other threats, placing Israel in a vulnerable position.
The Israeli government is stuck in a deadlock in the war in Gaza, without a clear exit strategy and without alternatives for a population transfer. This lack of strategic planning weakens Israel, worsens the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and raises doubts about the government’s ability to handle broader security challenges. To break this cycle, Israel needs a comprehensive plan that integrates military, political, and humanitarian aspects, and sets clear objectives for ending the war and restoring regional stability.
