Analysis | The IDF Has Reduced the Threat—Now It Wants a Blank Check: Is Increasing the Defense Budget Justified?

Israel’s blitz war against Iran ended with a clear military victory: Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered a severe blow, and its military capabilities were significantly degraded. This achievement adds to Hezbollah’s weakening in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Yet, amid this string of strategic successes, Israel’s security establishment—the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet—is now requesting an almost unlimited budget from the Ministry of Finance for the coming years, citing the need to replenish stockpiles and prepare for future conflicts.

On one hand, the economic logic is understandable: the security risk premium, factored in by foreign investors when considering investment in Israel, has significantly decreased. This newfound stability is expected to boost foreign investments, support GDP growth, and benefit the Israeli economy. Additionally, the resources Iran will have to divert toward rebuilding its infrastructure may reduce—at least in the short term—its support for terror organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.

On the other hand, a fundamental question arises: is it justified for the defense establishment to use its success as a basis to request a blank check? Though the arguments may seem reasonable on the surface, they demand critical examination. Do the supplies used during the war truly warrant dramatic increases in defense spending for the coming years? Does the damaged Iranian nuclear program require expanded budgets for intelligence gathering and surveillance—or is this precisely the time to seek greater efficiency following such significant achievements?

Moreover, one cannot ignore the possibility that Iran—humiliated by the outcome—may accelerate its nuclear program and quickly rebuild its military. In that case, intelligence bodies, especially the Mossad, would indeed face new and significant challenges. But the question remains: is the right economic and strategic decision to automatically increase defense budgets, or is this a rare opportunity to reconsider the structure of defense spending and the operational strategies of Israel’s security branches?

Now, following a major military achievement, there is a need for serious public and political scrutiny of how the defense establishment manages its budget. A “blank check” is not the only responsible response to the new reality. Instead, it may be time to explore alternative approaches, greater transparency, and stricter oversight of defense expenditures—measures that can ensure national security without disproportionately harming social and civilian budgets.