Analysis | The Preemptive War in Iran: Israel Has Crossed the Rubicon

Israel is registering impressive achievements on the battlefield against Iran. The Israeli Air Force has destroyed around 70 Iranian air defense systems, achieved complete air superiority, and eliminated dozens of missile launchers and hundreds of long-range missiles. Iran’s infrastructure for producing air defense systems and missiles has been completely destroyed, forcing the country to rebuild its aerial capabilities from scratch.

However, as impressive as these tactical achievements may be, they do not guarantee a long-term solution to the Iranian threat. From Israel's perspective, the true and strategic goal of this war is not merely the temporary neutralization of Iranian capabilities, but the complete removal of the existential nuclear threat. In other words, as long as Iran remains under the rule of the ayatollahs—an ideologically committed regime to Israel's destruction—the threat will remain alive and present.

It is important to emphasize that Israel’s very decision to launch a preemptive war against Iran has set it on a path that, strategically speaking, cannot end with an agreement alone. Iran’s primary failure to date has been its hesitation in developing nuclear weapons for nearly half a century. Now, in light of the military blow it has suffered, it is likely that the Iranian regime will conclude that acquiring nuclear weapons is essential. As long as the current regime, or one similar to it, remains in power, Iran is expected to invest all its future resources in completing its nuclear program.

Israel therefore faces a critical strategic decision. The war must end with one of two outcomes: the fall of the Ayatollah regime or the complete destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities and the elimination of its nuclear capabilities and knowledge. Any other outcome—including an American-brokered agreement that leaves the regime intact—would be merely a temporary victory and a postponement of the confrontation with a real existential threat by only a few years.