Analysis | The Abraham Accords: A Strategic Honey Trap in the New Middle East

The Abraham Accords, signed several years ago under American mediation, were widely hailed in Israel and internationally as a historic breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations. They presented a vision of a new Middle East, one that enables peace and cooperation without requiring a resolution to the Palestinian issue. However, from a different perspective, these agreements—despite their apparent achievements—may contain a hidden “honey trap” for Israel.

For the Gulf states, which have never shared a border with Israel nor engaged in direct wars with it, the accords may not represent a deep ideological shift. Rather, they appear to be a calculated strategic maneuver.

The core concern lies in the long-term divergence of interests and perceptions. While Israel viewed the agreements as regional recognition and a strengthening of its strategic standing, the Gulf states, despite formal normalization, have not abandoned the goal of a Palestinian state. This remains a major point of contention—particularly given the Israeli notion of Jordan as a de facto Palestinian state, which starkly contradicts the Gulf position.

It seems that Gulf countries have concluded that military force cannot bend Israel. Instead, they have embraced a strategy of "soft power," aimed at eroding Israel’s comparative advantages in areas where it has long been dominant. Central to this view is the idea that Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are investing heavily in the very arenas where Israel once held a clear edge: economy, science, and technology.

Their unprecedented funding of cutting-edge infrastructure—especially in artificial intelligence, space, and advanced industries—dwarfs Israel’s investments in these fields. Moreover, they are attracting leading global tech companies and top talent from around the world, with the goal of building rich, competitive innovation ecosystems. Should they succeed in offering scientific and technological alternatives to Israel—or even surpass it—Israel’s tech-driven economy could suffer significant harm.

On the geopolitical front, the Gulf states are working to cement their status as influential actors in a multipolar world. By forging strategic ties with global powers—China, Russia, Europe, and the United States—they enhance their international leverage. This positioning, which elevates them as key players shaping the Middle East’s future, risks marginalizing Israel and reducing its diplomatic influence.

This shift is already visible in arenas such as Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian territories, where Gulf influence over the major powers indirectly affects Israel. From this viewpoint, the Abraham Accords have created new avenues for the Gulf states to shape Israeli policy—not through direct confrontation, but through strategic alliances with global players.

In conclusion, while the Abraham Accords offer immediate diplomatic and economic gains, they may also represent a complex, long-term strategic play by the Gulf states. Rather than resolving conflicts, the accords could serve as a platform for building soft power—economic, technological, and geopolitical—that enables these states to pursue their broader goals, including advancing the Palestinian cause, while potentially undermining Israel’s regional dominance. Israel would be wise to assess the accords not only in terms of short-term benefits, but also in light of the long-term strategic challenges they may pose.