Analysis | Trump’s New Middle East Order

In a major economic and geopolitical development, US President Donald Trump kicked off his Middle East visit yesterday (Tuesday) by announcing a historic $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia to the United States. This marks what officials describe as the largest set of commercial agreements ever signed between the two nations.

The sweeping package includes initiatives across defense, energy, technology, infrastructure, healthcare, and cultural exchange, signaling a new chapter in U.S.-Saudi relations. “This is a transformative moment for both our economies and our partnership,” President Trump said during remarks in Riyadh.

A centerpiece of the deal is a $142 billion defense sales agreement—the largest in U.S. history—which includes cutting-edge weapons systems, training programs, and long-term sustainment support. The deal spans five key areas: air and space capabilities, missile and coastal defense, border security, land force modernization, and upgrades to information systems. The agreement, officials say, will enhance regional security while supporting thousands of U.S. defense industry jobs.

In the technology and infrastructure sectors, Saudi firm DataVolt is set to invest $20 billion in American AI data centers and energy infrastructure. A broader $80 billion commitment from companies including Google, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, and Uber will further drive innovation in both countries.

Healthcare is also a focus, with Shamekh IV Solutions committing $5.8 billion, including the launch of a high-capacity IV fluid plant in Michigan aimed at bolstering domestic medical supply chains. Additional investment funds totaling $14 billion will target U.S.-based energy, aerospace, and sports sectors, promising to create high-quality jobs and accelerate domestic innovation.

The agreement features expanded cooperation on critical minerals, energy development, and even space exploration, including a joint NASA-Saudi mission involving a CubeSat launch on Artemis II. New air transport and cultural exchange agreements were also signed.

President Trump framed the announcement as a key achievement in his “America First” strategy, reinforcing his administration’s commitment to fair trade, job creation, and U.S. global leadership. The deal builds on earlier commercial agreements signed in 2017 and underscores the deepening strategic alignment between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

“Greatness” for Syria

Another major surprise shift Trump announced yesterday in Riyadh is the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria, marking a significant shift in American foreign policy. Trump stated that the sanctions had fulfilled their purpose and that it was time for Syria to rebuild. "I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness, he said. “It’s their time to shine. We’re taking them all off. Good luck Syria, show us something very special.”

This decision follows consultations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and precedes a meeting this morning (Wednesday) with Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who assumed power after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. During the meeting, which was attended by bin Salman and joined remotely by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump expressed his hope that Syria joins the Abraham Accords "when it's (the situation in Syria) straightened out."

The lifting of sanctions is expected to have a profound impact on Syria's economy, which has been severely hindered by restrictions that limited access to international financial systems and development opportunities. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with his Syrian counterpart to discuss the normalization of relations. 

What about Israel?

Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia shortly after the U.S. administration secured the release of Edan Alexander, an Israeli soldier and U.S. citizen who had been held hostage by Hamas. Alexander, who immigrated to the United States as a baby and later returned to Israel to serve as a lone soldier in the IDF, was kidnapped during the Hamas-led assault on Israel on October 7, 2023. After enduring 548 days in captivity in Hamas' underground tunnels in Gaza, where he suffered severe abuse, Alexander has finally returned home.

Alexander’s release—facilitated by Qatari and Egyptian mediation—was viewed as a significant diplomatic win for the Trump administration. The deal was considered a “gift” to the U.S., as it involved no reciprocal release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. While the return of Alexander was met with joy and relief among many Israelis, it also fueled public outrage toward the Israeli government, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was notably absent from the negotiations. 

Many Israelis questioned how a soldier, kidnapped while defending his country, could be rescued without direct involvement from his own government. During a protest outside the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv last night, demonstrators carried signs urging President Trump to act on behalf of the remaining hostages—some suggesting that U.S. citizenship may now be the only guarantee of government action.

Fifty-eight hostages are still be in Gaza, with 23 presumed to be alive. Among them are no remaining living U.S.-Israeli dual citizens; Alexander was the last. There are still bodies of four additional dual nationals. As the war in Gaza continues, many families of the hostages—and a significant portion of the Israeli public—express growing concern that their own government is not doing enough to bring their loved ones home. The issue remains a powerful and painful symbol of national frustration and unresolved trauma.

The new U.S.-Saudi deal, with its emphasis on security and technology, is likely to elevate Riyadh’s influence in the Middle East and further solidify its strategic partnership with Washington. This growing alignment could leave Israel feeling sidelined, potentially disrupting the regional balance of power and undermining Israel's pivotal role as a U.S. ally in the region. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria and his recent ceasefire agreement with the Houthis, which excluded Israel, add to Jerusalem’s concerns. This morning, hundreds of thousands of Israelis were forced into emergency shelters as the Houthis launched another missile from Yemen—the third in as many days. Yet, the most pressing concern for Israel remains the potential nuclear deal between the US and Iran. 

"President Trump Charts the Course for a Prosperous Future in the Middle East," states the latest White House media release, summarizing his address at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh. The announcement touches on Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, the UAE, and Iran, with the president declaring, “After so many decades of conflict, it is finally within our grasp to achieve the future generations before us could only dream of — a land of peace, safety, harmony, opportunity, innovation, and achievement right here in the Middle East.” Notably, Israel is not mentioned.

With these developments, it appears that the Trump administration is moving away from its support for the extremist Netanyahu government, signaling a shift toward alternative strategies in the region that do not include an endless, perhaps even futile, war. It is safe to assume that the horrific images from Gaza have not escaped the president's eyes, nor have statements by some government members about "razing Gaza" and "banishing Gazans and occupying the Strip forever." Unless Israel's leaders shift gears and get on board with Trump, the nation might become more isolated than ever, facing greater dangers both internally and externally.