Redefining Conflict in the Digital Age: The Role of AI

While artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our lives by simplifying several tasks and enabling faster and more efficient automation of many online operations, it is also emerging as a transformative force in modern cyberwarfare, revolutionizing the way state and non-state actors conduct their offensive and defensive operations in cyberspace. 

With capabilities ranging from intelligent threat detection to automated cyber attacks and adaptive malware, AI is changing the balance of power in digital conflicts. From cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to military cyberespionage and disinformation campaigns, from terrorist recruitment to online operations, it amplifies the scale, speed, and sophistication of cyber operations worldwide, regardless of their nature. This article explores the current use of AI in cyber operations, its transformative potential, and the implications of AI-versus-AI cyber battles shortly.

AI in Military Cyber Operations

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR): 

In an AI-based intelligence and surveillance framework, military ISR capabilities can be enhanced by analyzing massive data streams from diverse sources, such as drones, satellites, and sensors. The US Department of Defense's Project Maven illustrates this principle by using AI to process drone images and identify potential threats, thereby accelerating decision-making. Similarly, the Israeli army is working developing artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities for several military domains among which intelligence and cyber operations. For its part, China is integrating artificial intelligence and quantum technology into its military strategy for the coming years. It seeks to develop algorithmic warfare and network-centric warfare capabilities operating at different levels of human-machine integration.

Offensive and Disinformation Capabilities: 

AI enables military forces to launch more precise and adaptive cyberattacks against constantly evolving and increasingly sophisticated systems. Machine learning algorithms can identify vulnerabilities in enemy networks and automate the deployment of exploits. For example, during the conflict in Ukraine, AI-assisted tools were used to analyze enemy cyber threats and coordinate responses to attacks against critical infrastructure. AI can also enable militaries to develop and deploy malware that is more complex and adapts to their targets, such as critical military and civilian infrastructure, and that can quickly adapt to enemy defense systems more effectively and stealthily. As part of disinformation operations, AI facilitates the creation and dissemination of false information on a large scale.  In Mali, it helped identify influential media figures to sway public opinion against Russian activities. Russia, for its part, uses AI in large-scale disinformation campaigns, creating numerous fake websites and profiles publishing pro-Russian opinions or biased articles in foreign languages to influence public opinion in a country. Additionally, state actors, such as Venezuela, have used deepfake technologies to produce fabricated information content to manipulate public opinion.

Defensive Capabilities and Countermeasures:

AI can significantly improve the military's defensive capabilities by enabling faster threat detection, analysis, and response. AI systems can use machine learning and deep learning algorithms to identify abnormal network behavior and potential vulnerabilities in real time, even those that mimic legitimate activity. AI can also contribute to the automation of threat intelligence, helping to predict and potentially counter cyberattacks before they cause significant damage. 

It can also facilitate the management of large volumes of data, simplify vulnerability identification, and continuously adapt to new cyberthreats. Deception must now mislead both the human chain of command and AI systems. By penetrating enemy AI systems and introducing erroneous data, militaries could distort their decisions, for example, by misallocating resources or misidentifying targets. This duplication of deception complicates warfare, as adversaries must now guard against human and mechanical misinterpretations.

AI in Non-State Actors' Cyber Operations

Paramilitary Cyber Groups and Hacktivists:

The widespread availability of AI tools has enabled paramilitary and hacktivist cyber groups to rise. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian Cyber Army, a volunteer cyber force, coordinates via platforms like Telegram to conduct cyber operations against Russian targets. This model illustrates how AI and digital communication tools can mobilize non-traditional actors in cyber conflicts. Furthermore, several nationalist, politically, or ideologically engaged hacktivist or hacker groups specializing in DDoS attacks use AI to augment and optimize their cyberattacks.

Terrorism:  Recruitment and Radicalization:

Some terrorist organizations use AI-powered chatbots to interact with potential recruits on messaging apps. These bots can simulate human conversations, tailoring messages to individuals' beliefs and interests, thus enhancing their recruitment efforts. These technologies allow groups to reach and radicalize individuals more effectively, even without direct human interaction. 

Furthermore, generative AI can enable terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to continue conducting social engineering operations using fake profiles, but in a faster and more efficient manner, allowing them to take specific parameters into account automatically.  As mentioned previously in the disinformation operations, AI can also potentially enable terrorist organizations like the Islamic State to conduct radicalization campaigns on a larger scale, with the creation of numerous websites and bots on messaging apps in an attempt to broadcast their messages and reach a larger number of people for potential recruitment.

Challenges and Risks for the International Security

Integrating AI capabilities into cyberwarfare is profoundly transforming the landscape of global cyber conflicts. AI increases cyberattacks' speed, scale, and sophistication, enabling state and non-state actors to launch more targeted, autonomous, and evasive operations. The constant evolution of AI technologies will likely blur the lines between war and peace, making attribution and accountability more difficult, while increasing the risk of escalation and misjudgments. 

The dangers to international security are significant. AI-driven cyberweapons could compromise critical infrastructure, disrupt economies, and destabilize political systems with unprecedented effectiveness. Without strong international norms, cooperation, and regulation, the uncontrolled use of AI in cyberwarfare could usher in a new era of digital arms race and global insecurity. 

Addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts to develop frameworks governing the use of AI in cyber operations to ensure that technological advances do not outpace our ability to manage them responsibly.