Analysis | Trump’s Gaza Population Transfer Plan: A Simple Solution or an Evasion of the Complex Palestinian Issue?

The complex reality of the Middle East continues to hit us with full force. It seems that Israel and the United States, even in the era of the Abraham Accords, are facing deep frustration: no country in the Persian Gulf is willing to take responsibility for managing the Gaza Strip. Egypt and Jordan, long-standing neighbors, are also keeping their distance. The implication is clear and painful: the Palestinian Authority, with all its complexities and ties to Hamas, remains the only option on the table.

Then comes Donald Trump, the American president, with a "creative" solution that shakes the entire region—transferring Gaza's residents to other countries. This narrative, which many see as extreme, is gaining traction, and the Israeli government, whether out of genuine agreement or lack of alternatives, is aligning with it.

But is transfer truly the solution? Is it even feasible? And what will be the long-term consequences of such a move? These questions must be asked, especially in light of alarming signs of global instability.

First, what happens if Trump's transfer plan does not materialize? Can the U.S., or any other country, forcibly remove hundreds of thousands of people from their homes? That seems highly doubtful. Second, even if Palestinians are dispersed around the world, will they abandon their national aspirations? History suggests that this is almost impossible. Their national identity will only strengthen in exile, and their desire to return to Gaza will burn even more fiercely.

And what happens after Trump's term ends? Will the next president allow Palestinian refugees to return to Gaza, reigniting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Will the transfer be limited to Gaza, or will Israel and the U.S. attempt to implement it in the West Bank as well? Will millions of Palestinians be uprooted from their homes in an attempt to "solve" the Palestinian issue once and for all?

The answers to these questions are particularly complex. If the transfer plan fails and the Palestinians refuse to leave, will Trump shift course and support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state? Will he pressure Israel to reach a permanent agreement with the Palestinians? Will he use America's economic and political power to achieve a sustainable solution?

Unfortunately, the answers remain unclear. What is clear is that the current situation cannot continue. Gaza has become a trap, and no one knows how to escape it. Transfer may seem logical in theory, but in reality, it is dangerous and problematic. Inaction, however, is even worse.