Amir Rapaport’s Column: The Common Ground Now Shared by Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah

Ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election, a sort of equilibrium has emerged for the first time since October 2023, where at least three parties—Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel—share a common interest: a near-term ceasefire.

This doesn’t mean the ceasefire will necessarily occur. Nevertheless, let’s start with Iran. If the Iranians consider "rational" (in Western eyes) factors, it would be wise for them at this moment to reduce heavy losses and pull back from direct conflict with Israel, which peaked in an impressive Israeli Air Force (and potentially other forces) attack last Saturday. 

Only a small portion of the information on Iranian targets destroyed has been published, but the conclusion is clear—Iran has been stripped of all its air defense systems, some of which represented the pinnacle of Russian military engineering. This is a considerable achievement not only for our forces but also for our defense industries and, of course, U.S. technology.

Reflecting on the past year, by April this year, Iran was on top of the world. The “Ring of Fire” strategy, surrounding Israel, worked remarkably well without any direct cost. However, Israel then dragged them into direct confrontations, and six months after Iran's first missile attack on Israel, Iran is now left without an effective operational capacity for its two primary tentacles, Hezbollah and Hamas, and without much of its own military capabilities (which were not very impressive to begin with). 

This presents an appealing opportunity for Israel to "address" the nuclear facilities spread across Iran (an attack on these facilities was almost launched at the beginning of the previous decade but was canceled after Defense Minister Ehud Barak had already ordered the military to prepare).

One reason Israel refrains from fully detailing the damage inflicted on Iran in last week's strike is to leave the Ayatollah regime with a deniability space, allowing it to avoid continuing direct exchanges with Israel. This is especially pertinent now, as Iran is nearly exposed to future attacks. 

A similar deniability space allowed Bashar al-Assad to remain silent after the strike on the nuclear reactor in Deir ez-Zor in September 2007 (Operation Orchard, also known as Operation Outside the Box), and it appears there is now an internal debate in Iran over whether to downplay the blow they sustained or to initiate the next direct attack on Israel. It is important not to underestimate Iran, as they still have a global terror network and shared interests with Russia, which has its own grievances with the West. A surprise could still occur.

In any case, Israel has its own compelling reasons to consider a ceasefire, precisely at the height of its success, following a series of impressive achievements in the months-long blitz against Iran and Hezbollah, especially since the pager operation and the wave of targeted killings that followed, which will enter the annals of global military history.

A ceasefire at this moment could benefit Israel due to the wear on its regular and reserve forces, the cost of ammunition (even as our defense industries operate in three shifts and have quintupled production rates), and the deteriorating international situation. Regardless of the U.S. election results, the pressure on us to conclude this campaign will likely increase, even from our closest ally. Even Donald Trump is unpredictable. 

Furthermore, the approaching winter is not a season in which the IDF would want to conduct ground operations in Lebanon. The terrain there is unlike the small, flat Gaza Strip. The cold, mud, and clouds would hinder our forces and favor Hezbollah, which has long adapted to guerrilla warfare.

Does this mean Israel will go along with the current mediation mission led by Amos Hochstein and agree to a ceasefire as anticipated by Lebanon's interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati this week? Are our considerations indeed "rational"? Time, not much, will tell. Meanwhile, fire exchanges from both sides are intensifying, as reflected in yesterday's heavy strikes in Baalbek, Tyre, and Syria, as well as the heavy toll we paid at an apple orchard in Metula, where an Israeli farmer and four foreign workers were killed, along with injuries in the Krayot area.

The "Alon" Brigade's Heroic Battle

One thing is certain: we have achieved a clear and decisive victory in the military campaign against Hezbollah, not nearly the tie that was attributed to the Second Lebanon War. Beyond the fact that Iran was forced this week to appoint the uncharismatic Naim Qassem as the organization's secretary-general, I also learned of the heroism of the "Alon" Brigade fighters, who were called for their third reserve round during "Iron Swords" last month.

I focus on "Alon," Brigade 228, because, until this month, there were no stories of valor in its history. Formed under the Northern Command's 146th Division (formerly 319), "Alon" is a relatively "ordinary" infantry brigade in the IDF reserves, with most of its forces made up of veterans of the Nahal Brigade. Its commander, Colonel Yaniv Malka, hails from Ashkelon, and his family was evacuated from their home for many months after October 2023.

Now, the 228th has an illustrious chapter, including a heroic battle in the heart of the Kasbah in a southern Lebanese village (Aitaroun) last Saturday noon (shortly after the strike in Iran). Unfortunately, the brigade paid a heavy price in the battle, including the deaths of Senior Sergeant Shaul Moyal, 47, from Karnei Shomron; Major Avraham Yosef Goldberg, 43, from Jerusalem (who served as a fighter; the deputy commander was also seriously injured in the battle); Master Sergeant Gilad Elmalich, 30, from Jerusalem; Captain Amit Hayut, 29, from Haifa; and Major Eliav Amram Abitbul, 36, from Eitan.

The brigade entered Lebanon after months of mostly defensive operational deployments along the northern border, including brigade training in preparation for raids. At the decisive moment, following the IDF's ground action in southern Lebanon, "Alon's" combat team, which includes armored and engineering forces from other units, entered their designated villages. The IDF captured dozens of villages along the northern border, sparing Christian villages, the Lebanese army, and UNIFIL forces who sheltered in their posts.

The 228th infantrymen initially entered the village of Bleyda in long foot patrols, just as in past operations, without armored vehicles. The enemy largely disappeared, but in the heart of the village, the brigade had wounded and a significant achievement—the capture of Hezbollah's first prisoner in this campaign, trapped in a sophisticated communications center 10 meters underground, inside a seemingly ordinary four-story residential building. Seizing his communication system further disrupted Hezbollah's command and control network, directly following the destruction of communication devices and beepers.

A month later, in last Saturday's heroic battle, the brigade was about to leave another village when intelligence indicated terrorists were still hiding in the Kasbah. Intelligence in this war is relayed in real time, thanks to a concept called "Deployed Intelligence." Based on this information, the forces went to strike the Kasbah again after additional air and artillery bombardments. Unfortunately, a terrorist hiding in one of the bombed buildings caused numerous casualties during the sweep. While rescuing them, additional soldiers were injured, and there was a fear that one of our fighters might be kidnapped. The wounded were evacuated by air force helicopters, under significant risk.

The full picture of the battle remained unclear for hours, but it seems that an additional terrorist continued fighting with light weapons and grenades even after a wall from the building collapsed on him, severing his legs. The house caught fire, and IDF special units joined the fight.

The fire was extinguished with water drawn from village wells. The battle was directed from the heart of the Kasbah by senior IDF command, including Brigade Commander Malka, 91st Division Commander Brigadier General Shai Klapper, 146th Division Commander Brigadier General Yiftach Norkin, and the Northern Command Commander Yiftach Norkin himself.

By early Sunday morning, full control of the village was achieved, with no missing personnel, including the five fallen and fourteen injured. A few days later, the 228th completed their mission. They know they will be called for future missions. The IDF believes the Ayatirun battle will be remembered for generations due to the commitment of all commanders and fighters, as well as their resolve to leave no fallen or wounded soldier behind.

A Strategy Needed for Gaza

Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, there are still no significant signs of a breakthrough that would lead to a ceasefire and the return of hostages, despite talk of an upcoming deal and the Mossad chief’s visit to Qatar. There might be a “limited deal” like the one mentioned this week, but the path remains full of obstacles.

It’s hard not to notice that Israel continues to operate without a clear strategy. On the one hand, forces worked to evacuate the residents of Jabalia under the “Generals’ Plan” while, on the other hand, due to international pressure, the IDF was forced to allow supplies into the area. This way, Hamas can continue controlling the population and harassing our forces while we bear the full cost of international criticism.

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