Amir Rapaport’s Column: All Eyes on Tehran

The new Hebrew year 5785  is the first in many years to start in a better position than its predecessor, at least in terms of our deterrence. Just a year ago, the Intelligence Directorate's general warning that our enemies saw Israel’s political and social crises as an opportunity to attack was still valid. Hezbollah’s tent set up within our territory symbolized the low point we had reached.

What occurred on Simchat Torah, October 7th, will of course be remembered for generations, but at least the year ends on a positive note: the Israeli military and intelligence services’ unbelievable streak of successes against Hezbollah will surely make it into global military history. Thus, we ended the first week without Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and we are still struggling to comprehend the implications of his elimination fully.

A maneuver, not a walk in the park

In the last week of 5784, the Israeli military initiated a limited maneuver in southern Lebanon, a direct continuation of the beeper and radio attacks attributed to Israel, alongside a series of assassinations targeting Hezbollah's leadership and beyond. This maneuver now seems almost inevitable, but following the October 7th attack, when the political leadership largely lost faith in the military's capabilities, and even the military itself displayed a lack of confidence, the question arose of whether the ground forces could conduct a maneuver inside enemy territory at all. In this context, it is worth recalling the warnings of retired Major General Yitzhak Brick, which did not go unnoticed by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The tragedy of October 7th occurred because of the belief that Hamas is deterred. Still, on the other hand, the success of the maneuver in the Gaza Strip and the near-total destruction of Hamas's military capabilities is tied to the collapse of Yahya Sinwar’s own conception — that Israel would never dare to fight within the Gaza Strip, especially with hundreds of hostages still held in his hands.

Now, Hassan Nasrallah’s beliefs have also dramatically collapsed. His belief that Israeli society is weak, like a spider's web, and that Hezbollah could attack us using a "balance of power" strategy as long as we remain in Gaza, has been shattered. Nasrallah himself will no longer be available to explain his fatal mistake to an internal investigation committee. Another perception about to crumble is Iran's, along with its "ring of fire" surrounding us. Iran is now at a crossroads where all paths lead to very unfavorable outcomes for it. We'll get to that soon.

The return to Lebanon

Now is not the time for euphoria, despite the last month's achievements. Like Hamas in Gaza, which has not been fully defeated and still holds 101 of our men, women, and children, Hezbollah has not yet said its final word.

The terror organization has experienced what is known in military terms as "shock and awe" over the weeks between the pager attacks and Nasrallah’s assassination, along with Ali Karaki, the head of the southern front, and many other senior figures. This effect paralyzes the enemy and their decision-making capabilities. However, the organization, which has already appointed a successor to Nasrallah, will recover to some extent.

Towards Rosh Hashanah, Hezbollah’s firing range towards central Israel began to expand, although the organization’s capabilities are still far from the severe scenarios that were considered, and would have materialized had the Israeli military not eroded so much of Hezbollah’s abilities before moving to nearly total warfare (almost: the military still only targets pinpoint objectives in the Dahiya neighborhood, avoiding strikes on Lebanon’s government and military targets).

There is an ongoing fierce debate within the defense establishment and political leadership about whether it is right or wrong to keep the state of Lebanon out of the game, and the policy may still change in coordination with the U.S., which is strongly opposed to expanding the conflict, at least for the time being.

For the continuation of the war in Lebanon, the Israeli military has already moved significant forces northward, including the 98th Division, which includes the Paratroopers Brigade, having primarily fought in Gaza over the past year. In the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the military suffered casualties during the first ground operation across the border, conducted in underground combat zones built by Hezbollah, known as the "nature reserve."

This time, the maneuver began with special forces after meticulous preparations. The primary goal is to seize control over areas above Israeli settlements in the Galilee Panhandle and to address the bases that Hezbollah’s Radwan Force had prepared as staging points for its “Galilee Conquest Plan.” One shudders to think what might have happened had Hezbollah invaded from the north alongside Hamas’s attack on October 7th, but Sinwar likely assessed that Israeli intelligence was deep within Hezbollah, which is why he did not share his invasion plans with Hezbollah or Iran.

In fact, the ground operations inside Lebanese territory did not begin this week. Just yesterday, the IDF allowed the publication of information revealing that, over the past few months, IDF forces carried out around 70 targeted operations in southern Lebanon. These operations were aimed at destroying and neutralizing terrorist capabilities and infrastructure in villages and areas near the border that pose a threat to northern Israeli communities.

The forces raided villages and dense areas, breached underground openings at targets along the border, uncovered weapons caches, and dismantled terrorists' staging areas.

“Throughout 200 nights, hundreds of days, and dozens of operations in enemy territory, the forces uncovered, neutralized, and destroyed underground complexes, attacked thousands of military targets, weapons depots, tens of tons of explosives, safehouses for militants, command centers, and more. Some of the weapons were brought back to Israeli territory," the military said.

But even though Hezbollah has taken blow after blow, we must not forget that it has also spent years preparing for a full-scale war against us. Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman rightly warned this week that “we must understand that all the villages along the contact line, such as Kafr Kila or Kafr Adaisseh, are booby-trapped with mines and tunnels. These villages must first be leveled from above by the air force, and only afterward should our soldiers enter. No uninvolved civilians remain there; everyone left in those places are Hezbollah operatives.”

Additionally, the significant achievements in Lebanon are tied to the immense firepower capabilities that the IDF has developed. These capabilities have been greatly refined during the past year of fighting. Beyond the massive barrage that hit Lebanon, every Hezbollah cell that opens fire knows that its chances of survival are slim. This could explain the relatively low volume of fire directed at Israel. The threat of drones and anti-tank missiles has also become less dominant in the escalating conflict, as Hezbollah fighters are relentlessly pursued.

Key points for 5785
Before concluding, three main points reversing our strategic situation in 5785, the new Jewish year.

Social cohesion: Needless to say, societal resilience and cohesion are as important as military strength, but the prime minister is still doing too little to unite the nation.

Arms independence: Israel’s heavy dependence on the United States and other Western allies was one of the glaring weaknesses of 5784 (though, of course, we appreciate the support we received from the world's leading power). The defense establishment has already begun a program to produce all types of munitions independently, as well as the establishment of a missile corps. This will be costly, but it is necessary.

Excellence: One of the challenges the Israeli military, particularly the ground forces, faces is a contagious mediocrity, at best. Amidst this mediocrity, the elite units of the military, alongside the Air Force and intelligence bodies, which are mostly staffed with very professional personnel, stand out. In these entities, the name of the game is excellence.

One can only imagine the complexity of an operation involving dozens of aircraft, moving at tremendous speed and dropping bombs one after another, so that each bomb clears a bit more of the path toward a deep underground bunker, like Hezbollah’s headquarters in Dahiya. This is just one of many examples. The intelligence bodies, including the Mossad and Shin Bet, also display awe-inspiring excellence. After the tremendous achievements of late 5784, we must nurture and expand this excellence.

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