Amir Rapaport’s Column: Israel Shifts its Focus to the North and to Countering West Bank Terror

Seemingly, the exchange of blows between the IDF and Hezbollah this week was "more of the same": that is, a continuation of the strikes carried out by both sides for many months now, while taking great care not to cross the threshold of full-scale war.

In reality, something significant has changed. Since October 7, the primary military effort assigned to the IDF has been against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with the main task on the northern border being defensive. However, now the ongoing combat against the remnants of Hamas' military capabilities has become secondary. Against this backdrop, one can understand the explicit statements made by the defense minister this week during a conversation with soldiers of the 9th Reserve Brigade: "We are shifting the center of gravity to the north... Be prepared. This mission is unlike any other."

So are we on the path to an inevitable all-out war with Hezbollah? Not yet. This week, the American mediator Amos Hochstein once again made the rounds between the region's capitals, and a war between Israel and Hezbollah, which could potentially escalate to involve Iran, is the last thing the Americans want two months before the elections. On the other hand, from the Israeli perspective, there is likely no choice. Strategically, Israel cannot continue to tolerate a situation where areas in the north are evacuated, while even non-evacuated towns, like Nahariya this week, are also being attacked.

The preparations Israel is making for war can be seen in two main aspects: systematic strikes on Hezbollah’s missile systems, which increased last month on the night Hezbollah allegedly attempted to launch a missile at Galil, and continued this week with an unusual attack on Hezbollah areas in Joya, Nabatiyeh, Kila, and Al-Mansouri simultaneously. On the night between Monday and Tuesday, there were reports of an unusual strike against Iranian targets near Hama in Syria. All these are just examples of the systematic way in which Israel is working to reduce the enemy’s capabilities in preparation for the 'real thing.'"

At the same time, the training of all forces expected to participate in the maneuver into Lebanon, including infantry, armor, engineering, and artillery, has almost been completed. Conquering territories in southern Lebanon more than 24 years after the withdrawal from the security zone might sound far-fetched, but the IDF is preparing for this scenario with the utmost seriousness, perhaps even as the only realistic option to return northern border residents to their homes.

While the IDF shifts its focus northward, Hezbollah continues its "signaling games," such as the attack in Nahariya or the anti-tank missile fired at Kibbutz Dan on Wednesday. However, Israel's intention to move the center of the fighting to the north could put Nasrallah and his patron, Iran, in their first real dilemma since October: how to respond (or not) to Israel's war preparations and the escalation of strikes? All the options now facing Tehran and Beirut are bad. And Iran has yet to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh at the Revolutionary Guards' guesthouse in Tehran.

Fighting in the West Bank

One of Iran's ways to increase pressure on Israel is to try to smuggle money and explosives from Jordan to fuel a wave of terror in the West Bank. Even without the Iranian provocation, the area is already tense with two main phenomena: battalion-sized organizations in cities like Tulkarm and Jenin, and a shift towards bomb attacks with explosives. The effort of the IDF and the Shin Bet is to shut the pressure cooker before it explodes.

Compared to the past, there are similarities between the current wave of terror and the period of the Second Intifada, which began with a series of horrific attacks inside and outside the Green Line, including suicide bombings. However, there is also a huge difference. From the beginning of the Second Intifada until Operation Defensive Shield in March 2002, Israel did not operate in the centers of Palestinian cities. Now, such operations are routine. Generally, the IDF is stretched to the limit of its forces and cannot allocate the same number of battalions to the West Bank as it did until October 7th.

Therefore, the primary effort is offensive, and the cooperation between the IDF, the Shin Bet, and police units, especially the Yamam, is unprecedented. This week, for example, decisive actions were taken in northern Samaria, while the Shin Bet and Yamam extracted a terrorist from a bed in Halhul near Hebron, who had been injured about a month ago while attempting to set up a car bomb. On Highway 6, a terrorist was arrested, which immediately led to the arrest of two members of his shooting cell and the seizure of a cache of weapons.

"Fortunately, most of the explosives used so far are made from non-standard materials. Mainly a mix of fertilizers and the use of gas canisters. In the West Bank, there are also standard explosives obtained from dismantling landmines or smuggling, but the forces manage to thwart their use. It is important to remember that security is not absolute, and an attack by a lone assailant, like the vehicle ramming in Beit El on Wednesday, is very difficult to prevent. And we haven't yet mentioned the long border with Jordan, 310 km, which made headlines this week due to the terrible suicide attack at the Allenby crossing.

Fortunately, most of the explosives used so far are made from non-standard materials, primarily a mix of fertilizers and gas canisters. In the West Bank, there are also standard explosives obtained from dismantling landmines or smuggling, but the forces manage to prevent their use. It is important to remember that security is not absolute, and attacks by lone assailants, such as the vehicle ramming in Beit El on Wednesday, are very difficult to prevent. And we have not yet discussed the long border with Jordan, 310 km, which made headlines this week due to the horrific attack at the Allenby crossing.

Contradictory Policies and the Temple Mount

One of the puzzling aspects that will likely intrigue historians writing about these times is the fact that contradictory directives are issued from two consecutive floors in the Ministry of Defense building at Kirya in Tel Aviv.

Thus, on the 14th floor, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is aligned with the Shin Bet and the IDF, advocates for distinguishing between terrorist villages and Palestinian communities not involved in attacks (where the IDF and Shin Bet refrain from operations)—and emphasizes the need to strengthen the Palestinian Authority's security forces. Meanwhile, on the 15th floor, the special minister in the Ministry of Defense, who is also the Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, does everything in his power to topple the Palestinian Authority using the tools at his disposal.

Two indicators that reflect the volatility of the current situation are the number of immediate alerts for attacks—more than 45, a record not seen in many years—and the number of administrative detentions—13. These administrative arrests are linked to a letter written by Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar to government ministers, in which he stated that Jewish raids on Arab villages could exacerbate the wave of terror and lead to many casualties, including on the Israeli side. 

In the meantime, Bar's truly severe warning also relates to the actions of the minister of national security concerning the Temple Mount and his call to establish a synagogue there. The Shin Bet understands that a change in the status quo on the Temple Mount could be the spark that leads to a massive explosion and provoke a backlash even from Sunni policies. 

According to my conversations with senior officials in the United Arab Emirates, they support us wholeheartedly and are eager for us to destroy Hamas, but they are also deeply concerned that Israel might alter the situation on the Temple Mount. In such a case, they would immediately sever their ties.

At least regarding the status quo on the Temple Mount, Prime Minister Netanyahu is listening to the Shin Bet Chief's warnings. This is why Netanyahu banged on the table during the government meeting on Sunday and issued a statement to the media that only he will determine the policies on the Temple Mount. It remains to be seen whether Ben-Gvir will be swayed by this statement or continue with his own independent policy.

Meanwhile, in Gaza

Shifting the focus of the fighting to the north does not mean that the war in Gaza has ended. Incidents and assassinations continue daily, including the activities of NILI, a task force within the Shin Bet, which aims to settle accounts with those responsible for the massacre on October 7 and their accomplices. This week, for example, the account was settled with the terrorist who murdered soldier Noa Marciano in captivity. He was killed from the air, along with dozens of other assassinations.

Yet, the IDF helicopter crash in Rafah highlights the high intensity of the fighting and indicates that without a fundamental change in the situation, we are still not “on the brink” of a complete victory over Hamas. In terms of the three objectives of the war in Gaza, only one has been achieved so far, and even that is approximate—the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities.

The goal of creating conditions for the return of the hostages is still far from being achieved, as is the dismantling of Hamas's civilian control over the Gaza Strip. On the contrary, as time passes, Hamas, which is responsible for distributing humanitarian aid to the population and makes substantial profits from it, only strengthens its control over the situation. 

This is evident from the situation along the Netzarim axis, which divides the Gaza Strip from north to south between Nahal Oz and the sea. For months after the division of the Gaza Strip, residents from the northern part would come to the axis, dozens of people a day, and request to move south. The IDF and Shin Bet were apparently interested in this movement, possibly for intelligence reasons, but in the past month, this trickle of people has stopped. Hamas now completely controls the situation north of Netzarim, having set up checkpoints that have entirely halted the movement of residents southward.