Analysis | The Israeli Dilemma in Lebanon: Between Revenge and Strategy
Northern Israel is facing a dead end, due to the absence of an Israeli strategy against Hezbollah's strengthening and the ongoing Lebanese crisis
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
Israel faces a serious strategic problem in the Lebanese arena. Despite Lebanon being one of the central arenas where Israel has suffered significant losses over the years, it seems that Jerusalem is struggling to develop a clear strategy to address the threats on its northern border.
The main challenge is twofold: on one hand, Israel is dealing with Hezbollah, which has become a significant military force with advanced capabilities. On the other hand, the Lebanese government remains weak and incapable of effectively controlling the country.
In recent decades, Hezbollah has carried out a series of strategic moves that have strengthened its position. The organization has developed a decentralized control structure that allows continued operation even under attack, established fortified and remotely controlled firing positions, improved its underground infrastructure for storing and transporting weapons, expanded regionally into Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and enhanced the quality of its weaponry, including precision-guided missiles and advanced anti-tank systems. Despite the clear military advantage of the IDF, Hezbollah is capable of surviving a military campaign while inflicting significant damage on Israel.
Israel faces a complex dilemma: a large-scale military operation could cause extensive destruction in Lebanon but might not yield long-term results. Weakening the Lebanese government could actually strengthen Hezbollah's position, and without a political strategy, military achievements could quickly dissipate.
One preferred option is the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which includes pushing Hezbollah back to the Litani River line and deploying the Lebanese army along the border with Israel. At the same time, the land border between the two countries needs to be regulated. However, without strengthening the Lebanese government and addressing the severe economic crisis in the country, a stable long-term solution seems elusive.
The economic situation in Lebanon presents an additional challenge. With high unemployment rates and a troubling debt-to-GDP ratio, the country is in deep crisis. Further destruction of infrastructure in a future war could exacerbate the situation and increase instability.
Israel needs a comprehensive strategy that combines measured military action with diplomatic and economic efforts to strengthen the Lebanese government. Without this multi-dimensional approach, there is a risk that any military action, even if successful in the short term, will not lead to a fundamental change in the security situation on the northern border.
