Analysis | From Hezbollah and Houthis to ISIS: The New Tactics Threatening the Middle East
Following the success of Hezbollah and the Houthis in using Iranian technology and conducting a successful war of attrition, ISIS is likely to adopt new tactics that could exacerbate the threat to Israel and the entire West
Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
Over the past nine months, it is evident that Hezbollah has been successfully wearing down Israel on the northern border through extensive use of rockets, anti-tank missiles, and attacking UAVs, all products of advanced Iranian industry. However, Hezbollah is not alone on the scene. The Houthis in Yemen are conducting an effective war of attrition against a Western maritime coalition led by the US, aiming to disrupt commercial shipping routes in the Gulf of Aden.
These two terrorist organizations, using Iranian technology, have managed to take control of sovereign states and locally produce advanced weaponry. In the past year, they have demonstrated their ability to successfully confront Western armies equipped with the best technology.
These achievements have not gone unnoticed by other terror leaders worldwide, who see a winning model in the extensive use of relatively inexpensive weaponry, both for short and long ranges. The use of missiles and UAVs to wear down Western armies and cause significant economic damage to Western countries presents a new challenge in the geopolitical arena.
One clear example of this is ISIS, which managed to control vast territories in Iraq and Syria over a few years. Although the organization retreated following a combined military operation led by the US, there is concern that ISIS is rebuilding its strength. Data from US Central Command shows a sharp increase in attacks in Iraq and Syria. According to the command's data, between January and June this year, the group claimed 153 attacks—more than double the total number of attacks in 2023.
The increase in attacks indicates that ISIS is trying to re-establish itself, learning lessons from the successes of Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iraq, for its part, is pressing the US to leave its territory, claiming that the presence of American soldiers in the country is no longer necessary. Currently, the US holds about 2,500 soldiers in bases in Iraq and Syria, and their main objective is the fight against ISIS.
In November, elections are expected in the US, and the possibility of Donald Trump winning and entering a second term raises concerns about the continued American presence in the Middle East. Trump, who leads a communication line seeking payment for the presence of American soldiers, may see this presence as an unnecessary expense.
Such an American isolationist policy could accelerate the strengthening of terrorist organizations like ISIS in the Middle East, this time with weaponry based on the success of Hezbollah and the Houthis.
The economic and social implications of terrorist activities in the Middle East and the West could be devastating. The economic damage caused to Western countries as a result of these attacks will affect their economic and social stability, increasing the pressure on governments to address the threats immediately and effectively.
For Israel, the proliferation of missiles and UAVs to an organization like ISIS, with the ability to establish itself among the local population in Iraq and Syria, could open additional fronts and put the IDF under increased security pressure.
In conclusion, Israel and the West must be aware of the changes in the global terrorism arena and take the necessary steps to prevent the strengthening of these organizations. Neglecting the arena could come at a high cost—both security-wise and economically.