Analysis | Israel's Victory in the Gaza Strip Will Be Limited

Israel must deal a solid blow to Hamas. The country needs a victory from a military, political, and even economic point of view before it allows the reservists to go home and before the economy can return to normalcy.

Beyond that, there is an intense desire for victory, considering the horrors at the beginning of the war, and to punish the enemy in an unprecedented manner. There is hope for an outright win, but that hope is unwarranted. With the need to strive for maximum achievement, Israel must not delude itself. It is advisable to understand and accept now that victory will be limited.

Hamas will continue to exist

Hamas is used to taking blows from Israel and surviving. Like before, it will absorb this heavy attack and continue to exist. As far as Hamas is concerned, this is a protracted and lengthy struggle of attrition in which they will suffer badly. They are aware that Israel is stronger, but in the end, they genuinely believe they will win. It is impossible to defeat such an enemy; the only thing achievable is weakening and containing the organization as much as possible.

Unfortunately, even with the blows that Hamas will absorb, it is not an army that can be brought down. Although it is possible to eliminate the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, the movement will continue to operate underground, just as it has done in the past. Also, besides the Gaza Strip, Hamas has other centers of gravity in Judea and Samaria, as well as in countries abroad, such as Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Lebanon, and more.

Hamas has various fans and admirers around the world, and beyond that, Hamas is essentially a nationalist movement – religious, zealous, determined, uncompromising, and forged.

Though Hamas was founded in the late 1980s, it is firmly rooted in the Palestinian people. This is due to a combination of ideology, its economic and social assistance to the public, and the failures of its PLO opponents, which allowed Hamas to grow as an alternative to the traditional Palestinian leadership. None of this will change. In fact, the current conflict may strengthen the status of Hamas despite everything it has suffered and will continue to undergo.

Gradually, Israel will eliminate part of the Hamas leadership, but its leadership has replacements. Two decades ago, in 2004, Israel eliminated the founder of Hamas and his successor, and later, there were more assassinations at the top of Hamas in 2012. Despite this, the organization survived, which is expected to happen again.

Militarily, Hamas will be burdened by the elimination of its experienced commanders. At the political level, it is difficult to know if their replacements will be more hostile and competent than their predecessors, especially after they have matured and learned the lessons from the current campaign.

Hamas is an organization that constantly learns and adapts. There are about 30,000 people in the military wing of Hamas. Israel may kill many, but thousands of armed men will remain. It is doubtful that most will agree to leave the Strip, making capturing or eliminating them necessary - a long road with a high price.

New personnel for Hamas

The Gaza Strip has a substantial young population; Hamas will recruit and train new personnel from it. Some will join because of the struggle to find a job. Hamas, thanks to Iranian funding, will be able to guarantee them a living in exchange for their loyalty and service.

Thousands of others undergo an ideological education - starting from childhood - designed to create disciplined Hamas members. Others will join out of rage and a desire for revenge, especially after losing family members and friends in the current war in Gaza. It must be remembered that Hamas is not a state and an army per se, where everyone goes through a long and orderly training process.

With some of the recruits, only a few weeks of impromptu weapons and equipment training is sufficient for them to replace those killed.

Israel does not want the systematic destruction of the entire Gaza Strip. Two million Palestinians live there. Many are already homeless, and many more will join them in the future. Egypt will not let them pass into its territory. Some Gazans will try to escape by sea, but almost all of them will continue to be trapped, living in miserable conditions in tents with winter approaching.

In Israel, many people have no compassion for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, even though many are not Hamas supporters. But if hundreds of thousands of Palestinians find it challenging to survive, it will not only be their problem but also Israel's due to the very problematic consequences of such destruction, i.e., the sharp criticism Israel is absorbing in the world, the buds of which are now being seen.

The bottom line is that Hamas must suffer a heavy and even unprecedented blow. It may even lose control of the Gaza Strip. Still, considering the nature of the organization, its ability to rehabilitate itself, and the negative consequences of the conflict, it will be a partial and limited victory for Israel, with substantial shortcomings. There may be no escape from this; Israel must formulate a strategy that will provide the best answer to a sad and complex situation.