Analysis | Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson: truth or fraud?
It appears that the Russian general gave up on Kherson – one of the very symbols of Ukrainian resistance – way too easily. What is “General Armageddon” planning for his next move?
Cmdr. (res.) Eyal Pinko
| 20/11/2022
A mother is reunited with her daughter as she arrives from Kyiv to Kherson with the first train after Russia’s military retreat. November 19th, 2022. Photo by REUTERS/Murad Sezer
All war management is based on fraud. When we are capable of attacking, it should appear that we are incapable; while we act, we must appear to be sitting idly by; when we are near our enemy, we need to create the impression of being far away.
And when we are far away from the enemy, they must believe that we are near. Let us cast our rods to lure them, pretend that our army is in disarray – and then destroy that enemy.
About ten days before writing this, on November 9th, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu ordered the Russian troops to withdraw from the Ukrainian city of Kerson and reposition along the Dnieper River, which is adjacent to the city. General Sergey Surovikin, appointed two months earlier to head the troops fighting in Ukraine, presented the situation to Shoigu in front of the press, using much fanfare, and recommended the withdrawal and regrouping.
Russia’s troops withdrew from Kherson on November 11th, following a nine-month occupation. Before their final exit, the Russians blew up a major dam and central bridges – unclear whether from their need for revenge of due to an actual, tactical need. According to the Daily Mail, following the explosion Russian soldiers were seen fleeing the city wearing civilian clothing.
This withdrawal’s timing appeared slightly odd, against the backdrop of the war and the management of Surovikin, known as the “Butcher of Syria” and “General Armageddon”. Surovikin is notorious for his cruelty and uncompromising nature. Therefore, despite the shaky situation of the Russian army, the hasty exit from Kherson – one of the very symbols of the war – is not sufficiently understood.
One possible explanation for this withdrawal, especially when considering the stateliness in which it was broadcast on Russian television – is that it all was, in fact, a pre-planned and timed deception, in order to manipulate the opponent, thus controlling their perception of reality and leading them into making mistakes, thus creating a decisive advantage.
Maskirovka: Russia’s Military Deception
Maskirovka is the Russian doctrine of military deception, rooted in World War II. It is a fraud and deception doctrine, based on “anesthetizing” the enemy by getting them used to certain situations.
The Russians had already used this doctrine during the war on Ukraine. When Putin began increasing the frequency of his threats against Zelensky about a year before the war started, he followed this by deploying 100,000 fighters along the border with Ukraine, in March 2021.
One month later, Putin withdrew the troops, only to deploy them again in November of that year and later have them withdrawn. In January 2022, one month before the war had begun, Putin repeated this maneuver. During all of those times Ukraine, as well as western countries and NATO, assessed that Putin was only threatening and will not commit an invasion.
In March 2022, during another synchronized move, Russian forces were sent to occupy Kyiv. This forced the Ukrainians to send backup from the south to the capital – which left the southern front “easier” to occupy. This is how the Russians gained control over Kherson and other cities in that area.
However, it appears that the Russian general gave up on Kherson – one of the very symbols of Ukrainian resistance – way too easily. So, is this really a tactical move designed to give Russia some air and space to regroup, as Surovikin told Shoigu? Or is this, perhaps, another classical Russian deception, meant to capitalize on the Ukrainian sense of victory in order to attack with even greater force?
The coming days, characterized by the harsh winter that had already set on Ukraine’s killing fields, will surely help us solve this mystery.
It appears that the Russian general gave up on Kherson – one of the very symbols of Ukrainian resistance – way too easily. What is “General Armageddon” planning for his next move?
A mother is reunited with her daughter as she arrives from Kyiv to Kherson with the first train after Russia’s military retreat. November 19th, 2022. Photo by REUTERS/Murad Sezer
All war management is based on fraud. When we are capable of attacking, it should appear that we are incapable; while we act, we must appear to be sitting idly by; when we are near our enemy, we need to create the impression of being far away.
And when we are far away from the enemy, they must believe that we are near. Let us cast our rods to lure them, pretend that our army is in disarray – and then destroy that enemy.
About ten days before writing this, on November 9th, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu ordered the Russian troops to withdraw from the Ukrainian city of Kerson and reposition along the Dnieper River, which is adjacent to the city. General Sergey Surovikin, appointed two months earlier to head the troops fighting in Ukraine, presented the situation to Shoigu in front of the press, using much fanfare, and recommended the withdrawal and regrouping.
Russia’s troops withdrew from Kherson on November 11th, following a nine-month occupation. Before their final exit, the Russians blew up a major dam and central bridges – unclear whether from their need for revenge of due to an actual, tactical need. According to the Daily Mail, following the explosion Russian soldiers were seen fleeing the city wearing civilian clothing.
This withdrawal’s timing appeared slightly odd, against the backdrop of the war and the management of Surovikin, known as the “Butcher of Syria” and “General Armageddon”. Surovikin is notorious for his cruelty and uncompromising nature. Therefore, despite the shaky situation of the Russian army, the hasty exit from Kherson – one of the very symbols of the war – is not sufficiently understood.
One possible explanation for this withdrawal, especially when considering the stateliness in which it was broadcast on Russian television – is that it all was, in fact, a pre-planned and timed deception, in order to manipulate the opponent, thus controlling their perception of reality and leading them into making mistakes, thus creating a decisive advantage.
Maskirovka: Russia’s Military Deception
Maskirovka is the Russian doctrine of military deception, rooted in World War II. It is a fraud and deception doctrine, based on “anesthetizing” the enemy by getting them used to certain situations.
The Russians had already used this doctrine during the war on Ukraine. When Putin began increasing the frequency of his threats against Zelensky about a year before the war started, he followed this by deploying 100,000 fighters along the border with Ukraine, in March 2021.
One month later, Putin withdrew the troops, only to deploy them again in November of that year and later have them withdrawn. In January 2022, one month before the war had begun, Putin repeated this maneuver. During all of those times Ukraine, as well as western countries and NATO, assessed that Putin was only threatening and will not commit an invasion.
In March 2022, during another synchronized move, Russian forces were sent to occupy Kyiv. This forced the Ukrainians to send backup from the south to the capital – which left the southern front “easier” to occupy. This is how the Russians gained control over Kherson and other cities in that area.
However, it appears that the Russian general gave up on Kherson – one of the very symbols of Ukrainian resistance – way too easily. So, is this really a tactical move designed to give Russia some air and space to regroup, as Surovikin told Shoigu? Or is this, perhaps, another classical Russian deception, meant to capitalize on the Ukrainian sense of victory in order to attack with even greater force?
The coming days, characterized by the harsh winter that had already set on Ukraine’s killing fields, will surely help us solve this mystery.
