The Middle East regimes Israel hopes make it through the year – and those it doesn’t | Opinion

Ehud Eilam analyses the status of relations between Israel and neighbors, both immediate and more distant

The Middle East regimes Israel hopes make it through the year – and those it doesn’t | Opinion

Burning the Israeli and US flags, Tehran, August 2022. Photo by Sobhan Farajvan / Pacific Press/Sipa USA via REUTERS

What can Israel ask for – and do – in this new year, regarding the various neighboring regimes? Significant events regarding regional stability could be taking place. The West Bank has seen an escalation lately, which as usual raises concerns of another round of violence.

If this deterioration continues, or worsens, the Palestinian Authority (PA) might collapse completely, or survive as it did during the so-called 2nd Intifada, between 2000-2005. Meaning, it could survive, but not as it is today.

A great will depend on the Israeli policy. In the past, Israel has dealt its blows to the PA, but no Israeli government to date has really strived to crush it. This might change in the future, deliberately or not. In the meantime, Israel wants the PA to survive.

The Gaza Strip is in an even more fragile state, certainly from the economic point of view. A new round of violence has the potential or erupting quickly, for various reasons. In order to avoid that, Israel will continue to suffer from – and also support, to a certain extent – the continuous rule of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The alternatives – reoccupying Gaza, or chaos within – are worse. Israel might opt for attempts to improve the economic situation in the Gaza Strip, for example with providing work permits inside Israel.

Economic and financial problems

Israel is interested in the survival of Sisi in Egypt and Kind Abdullah in Jordan. Given the severe economic problems in both countries, there is no guarantee this will happen. Israel could assist Jordan, for example concerning energy and water, but it has less of an ability to aid Egypt.

Israel would like to see a stable government in Lebanon. Most likely, it would have a prominent Hezbollah presence, but could prevent Lebanon from imploding, given its major economic crisis. A collapsed Lebanon would not serve Israel. This is why Israel is striving to sign the maritime border agreement with Lebanon as soon as possible. This agreement is more financially vital for Lebanon than it is for Israel.

In the meanwhile, the “Karish” (Hebrew for “shark”) gas field is constantly being threatened by Hezbollah, the Lebanese shark – which, thanks to the Iranian octopus, has fire capabilities which present Israel with a major challenge. Hezbollah is a state within a state, and Israel would have liked very much to eliminate it – but given the potential costs and many difficulties it currently opts for containment instead.

Israel continues attacking Iranian targets in Syria and also harms the army of Assad, Iran’s ally. Israel isn’t trying to topple the Assad regime. This isn’t worth the cost and effort, would put Israel on a collision course with Russia, and as it is, Assad is barely standing and his army isn’t a particular threat. In addition, Israel knows the Assad regime well, and currently prefers a disabled, known fiend than the unknown.

Regarding further Arab regimes, from east and west, Israel must strive to continue nurturing its relations with Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Israel wants their current regimes to survive. Regarding Iraq, Israel has no real impact and is simply hopeful that that a pro-Iranian regime will not assume power.

Elections in Turkey

There are two regimes in the Middle East Israel would like to see change. Despite the warming of relations between Israel and Turkey – given Erdogan’s fickle temper and known positions, Israel will be quite please should he lose the upcoming elections.

However, despite Erdogan’s involvement in Israel-related areas (aiding Hamas, for example), Israel must not interfere in the Turkish elections. Israel can only hope that the Turkish opposition can unite and take advantage of potential mistakes Erdogan might make, that would further escalate the economic crisis, and in turn contribute to the collapse of his regime.  

Iran

But Israel’s greatest hope is to see the collapse of the Iranian regime. While the current uprising will probably not lead there, the next wave of protests might be a tsunami. It is impossible to know which regime would follow, but Israel prefers that uncertainty – things can’t be worse than they are now.

However, despite Israel’s actions inside Iran – especially with disrupting its nuclear infrastructure, it doesn’t really have any influence over what is happening in the country. Israel is dependent on parts of the Iranian people, who have had enough with the current regime and are interested in having it toppled, hopefully sooner rather than later. The US could assist, covertly.

Even if the new Iranian regime continues with the county’s nuclear ambitions, as long as it is less hostile towards Israel this means good news and more than that – given the ramifications on Iran’s allies in Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Yemen, Iraq and others.

Without the Iranian involvement and support of its partners and proxies in these countries, the reality would drastically change in Israel’s favor. Out of all the wishes and requests one can make for the new Jewish year, overthrowing the regime in Iran is the most important one.