"Israel should prepare for the Renewal of Negotiations between Tehran & Washington"

According to the forecast for 2020 of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy & Security (JISS), Israel should continue to prepare for escalation, but also for the possibility of the USA returning to the negotiating table with Iran. The Institute predicts that in the coming year, the consistent trend of drawing closer to the Gulf States will continue

 
"Israel should prepare for the Renewal of Negotiations between Tehran & Washington"

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The forecast for 2020 of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) includes several aspects regarding the Middle East, and mainly regarding the conflict between Israel and Iran. According to the Institute's estimates, Israel should prepare for escalation on the one hand, and for the renewal of negotiations between Tehran and Washington on the other hand.

"Iran will continue to strip the JCPOA of any content, and will escalate its enrichment of uranium, perhaps even dramatically so. Washington's campaign of 'maximum pressure' (economic sanctions) on Iran will continue to drain Iran's economy, posing significant challenges to the Ayatollahs. As long as Khamenei refuses to start negotiations with America, we can expect continued Iranian provocations in the Gulf and elsewhere in response to these pressures, including an intensification of brazen IRGC and Quds Force operations," the JISS report states.

"Clashes between Iran and Israel in Syria," the report stresses, "Could escalate into broader conflict. On the other hand, Tehran could agree in the latter half of 2020 to talks with the US on the nuclear accord and other matters, if Iran faces extreme economic peril and political crisis or if a Trump re-election victory seems assured. Israel must be prepared for the problematic possibility of renewed US-Iran talks, and work to ensure full coordination with Washington regarding the demands to be made of Iran."

In Syria, "President Assad is on his way to re-establishing central regime control. The departure of American forces from Syria will continue because of US electoral considerations and more, making room for a Syrian-Kurdish condominium. Syria-Turkey tensions will persist, despite Russian mediation. The Syrian military offensive in Idlib will advance. Syria is likely to return to the Arab League, and Europe will engage Syria in dialogue on issues of refugees and terrorism. The US will nevertheless continue to pressure Syria economically, leaving Assad dependent on Iran."

Russian Involvement will Continue

In the Russian context, the report by JISS maintains that "Russia will continue to deepen its involvement in the Middle East through arms sales and diplomatic-military interventions, although nothing on the scale of its involvement in Syria." According to JISS, Putin wants Israel to "Pave the way towards a gentler American approach to Moscow." Failing that, "It is not at all certain that Russia will continue to allow Israel unimpeded domination of Syrian airspace."

JISS estimates that "Turkey can be expected to increase its military interventions across the Mideast including Libya. The Turks may act against Cypriot sovereignty (in its economic waters), and against Greece. Nevertheless, the Turks may delay introduction of the Russian S-400 anti-missile system in order to placate Washington."

Regarding the Gulf States, JISS estimates that "Delicate and slow progress in ties between the Gulf States and Israel is expected, including possible rapprochement between Qatar and Israel." On the other hand, JISS maintains, "If Iran's hegemonic advances are not checked, some Gulf States may instead seek to bandwagon with Iran."

In the Palestinian arena, JISS estimates that "The PA will fiercely oppose the Trump peace initiative (across all issues: Jerusalem, settlements, security, sovereignty) and any unilateral Israeli moves (such as annexation of the Jordan Valley). However, Palestinian disgruntlement will be mainly channeled into international diplomatic moves against Israel, not to violent unrest – unless the economic situation in the territories worsens.