Eleven Years After: Five Valid Insights

In the week when Israel has finally assumed responsibility for destroying the nuclear reactor in Syria, Amir Rapaport offers several insights regarding the situation then and now

Eleven Years After: Five Valid Insights

Photo: IDF

It happened about seven years ago, during a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. "Iran is advancing toward a nuclear weapon, we must bomb their nuclear facilities," said the Israeli Prime Minister. "If you have to attack – go ahead and attack," responded the Russian President, thereby pulling the rug from under the attempt to convince Moscow to exert pressure on Tehran.

The conversation in Moscow took place a few years after the attack in Deir ez-Zor (for which Israel has assumed responsibility this week), and it indicates that even though the Syrian nuclear reactor had been destroyed, the nuclear threat has not been eliminated. Israel's strategic circumstances could have been worse in the shadow of a Syrian nuclear weapon, but they are by no means more favorable today than they were in September 2007.

More than ten years after, the regional and global arms race is gaining tremendous momentum (as stated today, openly, by the President and CEO of the leading Israeli defense industry, Elbit Systems, Bezhalel "Bootsy" Machlis in an enlightening and thought-provoking lecture).

Between September 2007 and March 2018, here are a few clarifications to illuminate the situation.

Syria Then and Now

As far as Israel is concerned, the Syrian nuclear threat, as well as the threat imposed by the Syrian regular military, which no longer exists – were eliminated. Regrettably, however, the IAF lost the total air superiority it had enjoyed pursuant to the massive investment in state-of-the-art Russian-made air-defense systems (which was a direct result of the lessons Damascus had derived from the Israeli attack of 2007).

Moreover, Syria pursuant to the civil war has evolved into a Russian-Iranian stronghold, and all of the threats and attacks against Iranian targets notwithstanding, Israel cannot drive Iran out of Syria's territory. The equation plays into the Iranians' hands: they can attack Israel directly as well as by proxy, but Israel cannot operate inside Iranian territory – at least not overtly.

North Korea

The most alarming aspect of the story of the Syrian nuclear project, which has now been divulged (almost) in full, is the fact that the reactor was based on equipment and knowledge provided by North Korea with massive backing and assistance provided by Iran.

The obvious question is this: whereas North Korea assisted Syria as it did, could it have supplied similar knowledge and resources, and possibly even a weapon, directly to Iran?

As in the case of the attack against Syria in 2007 and the one against the Iraqi reactor back in 1981, it was proven, once again, that the only way to actually stop an active nuclear project is by force or by a forceful threat.

Will the threats being made by the administration of US President Donald Trump prove effective, finally, in the case of North Korea as well? It was recently reported that North Korean President Kim Jong-un had invited President Trump to a meeting regarding North Korea's nuclear program.

South Korea's national security advisor announced recently that in a letter he had sent to President Trump, Kim Jong-un invited the American President to attend such a meeting and pledged that his country would avoid any nuclear tests during the talks. According to the South Korean advisor, President Trump accepted the invitation and announced that he would meet President Kim Jong-un by May.

The White House has confirmed that the President accepted the invitation, adding that all of the sanctions that had been imposed on North Korea will remain in effect for the time being.

North Korea appears to be distant, but the fate of its nuclear project is directly associated with the Iranian project. Tehran closely monitors President Trump's moves vis-à-vis North Korea in anticipation of the day when he is expected to announce his withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran and the renewal of the economic sanctions imposed on it, on May 12 (four months after he had extended an Executive Order that suspends the sanctions, probably for the last time).

Massive US pressure, as exerted on North Korea, could be effective in Iran's case as well.

Arrow III: Development Difficulties

One of Israel's other ways to prepare for the Iranian nuclear threat is by stepping up the development of the Arrow III missile defense system, intended to constitute the first interception tier against any Iranian missile outside of the earth's atmosphere.

The development effort is a huge challenge for the Homa Administration of IMOD's MAFAT Directorate (Directorate for Defense Research & Development - DDR&D), in cooperation with the US Missile Defense Agency. The prime contractor of the project is IAI (Israel Aeronautics Industries), and partners include the Boeing Corporation and other industries.

The last test performed in the context of the missile development process, on February 19, was initially regarded as a success, but subsequent analysis of the data in recent weeks (as per the normal practice in such complex trials) has indicated that some of the findings were disappointing. At the same time, sources within the Israeli defense establishment estimated that this ambitious project is advancing along the right track toward the development of an interceptor missile capable of effectively coping with enemy missiles, even if their warhead should split into multiple elements for deception purposes.

The Next Fighter Aircraft

As reported earlier this week, the attack in Deir ez-Zor was carried out by four F-16I (IAF designation Sufa) that excel in the air-to-air role and four F-15I (IAF designation Ra'am) that excel in the air-to-ground role. In the next few weeks, the IAF will have to make the final ruling regarding a procurement transaction for a new squadron to be established in the coming decade, namely – whether to acquire Ra'am or Adir fighters ("Adir" is the IAF designation of the F-35 fighter, a product of Lockheed Martin, like the F-16I). Having acquired Sufa and Adir fighters from Lockheed Martin over the past 20 years, this time the IAF authorities are expected to opt for a squadron of Ra'am (F-15I) fighters by Boeing.

Intelligence Lessons

The attack in Deir ez-Zor raises numerous questions with regard to the field of intelligence as well. As recently revealed by the former Director of the Mossad, Tamir Pardo, the initial revelation of the existence of the Syrian nuclear reactor was not the result of systemic effectiveness but rather the brilliant accomplishment of individual intelligence operatives. Following that initial revelation, the intelligence system as a whole operated with impressive effectiveness.

Regardless of the State of Israel having assumed responsibility for the attack in Syria, last Monday the departing Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate (AMAN), Maj. Gen. Hertzi HaLevi, presided over a get-together of former AMAN chiefs. Next week, HaLevi will hand over command of AMAN to Maj. Gen. Tamir Heiman.

The get-together on Monday evening was attended by Maj. Gen. Heiman as well as former AMAN chiefs Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi (currently the Deputy Chief of Staff), former chiefs of staff Ehud Barak and Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon, and retired major generals Shlomo Gazit, Yehoshua Sagi, Uri Sagi, Amos Malka, Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash and Amos Yadlin. The event marked Israel's 70th Independence Day.

During the get-together, the Head of AMAN presented the primary developments within the Directorate's various systems in view of the recent trends in the region and the challenges of the digital era.

HaLevi said that "The IDF Intelligence Directorate is a national treasure and a key element in the strength of the IDF and the State of Israel. The foundation for its strength consists of human excellence, technological excellence, and partnership – within the IDF, within the Israeli intelligence community and with partners around the world. The challenges of the current period have enhanced the importance of the single bit of information and the central role played by intelligence. The combination of operational competence and intelligence superiority is the secret behind the strength of the IDF. With tensions mounting in the Judea and Samaria district and the Gaza Strip, with a highly dynamic northern front, I suggest to anyone thinking of challenging us, especially in anticipation of the forthcoming holidays, to carefully consider their future moves."

The Head of AMAN noted that cumulatively, the room contained 32.5 AMAN chief tenure years: "The wisdom of generations. There is not a single day in the life of an AMAN chief that is like any other day – and this room currently groups together nearly 13,000 days," he added.

The Head of AMAN also noted that "A healthy organization is an organization that maintains a proper tension between conservatism and modernity. This get-together is an opportunity to talk about things we have preserved and about things that are being modernized and invented, and to listen to the viewpoints of men of experience."

All of the above notwithstanding, it is very likely that Israeli intelligence is still missing some strategic threats, just as it was unaware of the nuclear project Libya had voluntarily given up at its own initiative at the beginning of the last decade.