The Riots in Iran, the Drone Threat from Gaza & the Disappointment from India
Will the recent events in Iran bring about a change in the Islamic Republic? In Israel, specialists are racking their brains in an attempt to find a solution for the new threat from the Gaza Strip. Also, the disappointment from India regarding the defense procurement transactions is growing. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
Amir Rapaport
| 05/01/2018
The Israel-Gaza border (Photo: AP)
It happened in 2000: the head of the Mossad in those days, Efraim Halevy, predicted, in a closed forum, that the Ayatollah regime in Iran would collapse within a few years as it was not really popular with the majority of the Iranian people (peoples, to be more exact, as millions of Iranian nationals are not Persian).
Evidently, Halevy's prediction/wishful thinking has not materialized, but the question of whether the people of Iran have the power to topple the regime has risen even more acutely this week, against the background of the mass protests in Iran. Even the best commentators and intelligence specialists are unable to answer the question of whether the Ayatollah regime is actually on the way out. We can only hold on to a number of facts.
Why should a collapse be expected, sooner or later? Because the images currently being broadcast out of Iran are truly exceptional, unprecedented and reflect the breaking of a taboo – no more indirect criticism of the regime, but blatant chants and proclamations against the supreme leader and even actual attacks against the men of the security forces (the Basij), who normally arrive at the scenes of the riots mounted on motorcycles and dressed in intimidating black uniforms. Such attack scenes (which are going viral on Youtube) have never been seen before – not even during the massive protests of 2009.
Why should a collapse be ruled out? Because the Iranian regime maintains millions of ruthless, brutal security troops, backed by informers, and it has already survived more serious crisis situations.
Meanwhile, Back in the Gaza Strip
The last round of escalation in the south is taking place, to a considerable extent, opposite Iran, whether or not it has anything to do with the riots in that country (which it probably does not). The current, rocket-intensive round, has worsened pursuant to the launching of an Iranian-made rocket at the time of the ceremony commemorating the birthday of the late IDF MIA, Oron Shaul last Friday. The rocket fired was identical to the one launched on November 30, and all of the findings lead to the Islamic Jihad organization, which receives direct funding (as well as operational commands) from Tehran.
Another factor that heats up the situation in the Gaza Strip is the war against the offensive tunnels leading from the Strip into Israeli territory. Following Operation Protective Edge in 2014, the Israeli Government made a strategic decision to destroy all of the tunnels and to invest any amount required (which amounts to billions) in the elimination of this threat.
Since then, it has been a two-pronged effort: the technological development of measures for spotting the tunnels from above the ground and then destroying them (so far, with limited success), and the construction of an underground wall to a depth of dozens of meters that would put an end to this phenomenon.
As the latter effort is to be completed by the end of 2018, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have begun launching flying objects into Israel. The fact that riots have been taking place near the border fence of the Gaza Strip every Friday since President Trump's declaration recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel, does not help to calm the situation down.
But that is not all: the threat of which most of the Israeli public is not fully aware yet could turn out to be the most severe threat in the context of the next large-scale operation, just as the "surprise" of the tunnels turned out to be during Operation Protective Edge.
The concern in question is that Hamas and Islamic Jihad might attempt to stage attacks inside Israeli territory using RPAVs and drones, which are very easy to smuggle into the Gaza Strip from around the world, even as toys. This concern is being discussed, in part, under a cloak of confidentiality, but the degree of importance assigned to it was reflected by a public discussion conducted this week at the State Control Committee of the Knesset, pursuant to the submission of the State Comptroller's report on the subject.
Prior to that, the Ynet news website reported that the cabinet had last week endorsed the recommendations of the National Security Council for regulating this field. According to said recommendations, the IDF will be responsible for countering the threat along the borders and in the Judea and Samaria district, the ISA will be responsible for sensitive installations and the Israel Police will be responsible for enforcement throughout the country.
However, the Deputy Head of the National Security Council (NSC), Eitan Ben-David, stated at the Knesset that the process of completing the regulation is expected to take quite a while – as only the consolidation of said regulation is expected to take several months.
Meanwhile, specialists in the IAF are already racking their brains in an attempt to come up with a solution to the flying platform threat in the context of the various scenarios and in the various sectors, which differ in their characteristics.
Disappointment from India
Rafael's official announcement this week regarding the cancellation of the mega-deal with India involving the purchase of Spike missiles is yet another addition to a sequence of disappointing decisions and an emerging trend that was reported by this column for the first time a few months ago: cancellations of tenders by India, time after time.
As we reported back then, India had canceled, among other things, a tender for the purchase of anti-aircraft missiles and active protection systems for vehicles, which Rafael had a good chance of winning (with their Spyder and Trophy systems, respectively).
IWI, the small arms manufacturer, invested a fortune in the establishment of a production plant on Indian soil with a local partner – but has received no orders. At Elbit Systems they now hope that the Indians will not back down from their tender regarding the manufacture of a self-propelled artillery gun after ten years of competition (in which the Israeli company reached the final stage, opposite a French manufacturer).
On the other hand, at least IAI has had some gratification (last week, IAI CEO Yossi Weiss announced the forthcoming conclusion of his term, rather surprisingly): the Indians announced that they will be purchasing another batch of naval Barak missiles – a follow-up on the purchases they have already made, to the tune of billions, in the context of this joint project.
In eight days, the Prime Minister will depart for India at the head of a delegation that will include, among others, dozens of representatives from the Israeli defense industries, who still believe in the immense potential of the Indian market.
Surface Vessels, not Submarines
Leaks from the interrogation of the State's Witness in the affair regarding the IDF Navy submarines and surface vessels, Miki Ganor, have reconfirmed the evaluation reported in this column, that the most serious suspicions of corruption around the Prime Minister and in the NSC (in connection with Netanyahu's attorneys and the former Deputy Head of NSC, Avriel Bar-Yosef), pertain, first and foremost, to the questionable conduct in the purchasing of surface vessels for the Navy in Germany – more than to the "Submarine Affair".
Still, much is yet to be revealed in both affairs (at least as far as the media are concerned).
Will the recent events in Iran bring about a change in the Islamic Republic? In Israel, specialists are racking their brains in an attempt to find a solution for the new threat from the Gaza Strip. Also, the disappointment from India regarding the defense procurement transactions is growing. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
The Israel-Gaza border (Photo: AP)
It happened in 2000: the head of the Mossad in those days, Efraim Halevy, predicted, in a closed forum, that the Ayatollah regime in Iran would collapse within a few years as it was not really popular with the majority of the Iranian people (peoples, to be more exact, as millions of Iranian nationals are not Persian).
Evidently, Halevy's prediction/wishful thinking has not materialized, but the question of whether the people of Iran have the power to topple the regime has risen even more acutely this week, against the background of the mass protests in Iran. Even the best commentators and intelligence specialists are unable to answer the question of whether the Ayatollah regime is actually on the way out. We can only hold on to a number of facts.
Why should a collapse be expected, sooner or later? Because the images currently being broadcast out of Iran are truly exceptional, unprecedented and reflect the breaking of a taboo – no more indirect criticism of the regime, but blatant chants and proclamations against the supreme leader and even actual attacks against the men of the security forces (the Basij), who normally arrive at the scenes of the riots mounted on motorcycles and dressed in intimidating black uniforms. Such attack scenes (which are going viral on Youtube) have never been seen before – not even during the massive protests of 2009.
Why should a collapse be ruled out? Because the Iranian regime maintains millions of ruthless, brutal security troops, backed by informers, and it has already survived more serious crisis situations.
Meanwhile, Back in the Gaza Strip
The last round of escalation in the south is taking place, to a considerable extent, opposite Iran, whether or not it has anything to do with the riots in that country (which it probably does not). The current, rocket-intensive round, has worsened pursuant to the launching of an Iranian-made rocket at the time of the ceremony commemorating the birthday of the late IDF MIA, Oron Shaul last Friday. The rocket fired was identical to the one launched on November 30, and all of the findings lead to the Islamic Jihad organization, which receives direct funding (as well as operational commands) from Tehran.
Another factor that heats up the situation in the Gaza Strip is the war against the offensive tunnels leading from the Strip into Israeli territory. Following Operation Protective Edge in 2014, the Israeli Government made a strategic decision to destroy all of the tunnels and to invest any amount required (which amounts to billions) in the elimination of this threat.
Since then, it has been a two-pronged effort: the technological development of measures for spotting the tunnels from above the ground and then destroying them (so far, with limited success), and the construction of an underground wall to a depth of dozens of meters that would put an end to this phenomenon.
As the latter effort is to be completed by the end of 2018, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have begun launching flying objects into Israel. The fact that riots have been taking place near the border fence of the Gaza Strip every Friday since President Trump's declaration recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel, does not help to calm the situation down.
But that is not all: the threat of which most of the Israeli public is not fully aware yet could turn out to be the most severe threat in the context of the next large-scale operation, just as the "surprise" of the tunnels turned out to be during Operation Protective Edge.
The concern in question is that Hamas and Islamic Jihad might attempt to stage attacks inside Israeli territory using RPAVs and drones, which are very easy to smuggle into the Gaza Strip from around the world, even as toys. This concern is being discussed, in part, under a cloak of confidentiality, but the degree of importance assigned to it was reflected by a public discussion conducted this week at the State Control Committee of the Knesset, pursuant to the submission of the State Comptroller's report on the subject.
Prior to that, the Ynet news website reported that the cabinet had last week endorsed the recommendations of the National Security Council for regulating this field. According to said recommendations, the IDF will be responsible for countering the threat along the borders and in the Judea and Samaria district, the ISA will be responsible for sensitive installations and the Israel Police will be responsible for enforcement throughout the country.
However, the Deputy Head of the National Security Council (NSC), Eitan Ben-David, stated at the Knesset that the process of completing the regulation is expected to take quite a while – as only the consolidation of said regulation is expected to take several months.
Meanwhile, specialists in the IAF are already racking their brains in an attempt to come up with a solution to the flying platform threat in the context of the various scenarios and in the various sectors, which differ in their characteristics.
Disappointment from India
Rafael's official announcement this week regarding the cancellation of the mega-deal with India involving the purchase of Spike missiles is yet another addition to a sequence of disappointing decisions and an emerging trend that was reported by this column for the first time a few months ago: cancellations of tenders by India, time after time.
As we reported back then, India had canceled, among other things, a tender for the purchase of anti-aircraft missiles and active protection systems for vehicles, which Rafael had a good chance of winning (with their Spyder and Trophy systems, respectively).
IWI, the small arms manufacturer, invested a fortune in the establishment of a production plant on Indian soil with a local partner – but has received no orders. At Elbit Systems they now hope that the Indians will not back down from their tender regarding the manufacture of a self-propelled artillery gun after ten years of competition (in which the Israeli company reached the final stage, opposite a French manufacturer).
On the other hand, at least IAI has had some gratification (last week, IAI CEO Yossi Weiss announced the forthcoming conclusion of his term, rather surprisingly): the Indians announced that they will be purchasing another batch of naval Barak missiles – a follow-up on the purchases they have already made, to the tune of billions, in the context of this joint project.
In eight days, the Prime Minister will depart for India at the head of a delegation that will include, among others, dozens of representatives from the Israeli defense industries, who still believe in the immense potential of the Indian market.
Surface Vessels, not Submarines
Leaks from the interrogation of the State's Witness in the affair regarding the IDF Navy submarines and surface vessels, Miki Ganor, have reconfirmed the evaluation reported in this column, that the most serious suspicions of corruption around the Prime Minister and in the NSC (in connection with Netanyahu's attorneys and the former Deputy Head of NSC, Avriel Bar-Yosef), pertain, first and foremost, to the questionable conduct in the purchasing of surface vessels for the Navy in Germany – more than to the "Submarine Affair".
Still, much is yet to be revealed in both affairs (at least as far as the media are concerned).
