In Hezbollah's Sights
Despite the heavy casualties Hezbollah sustains in the war in Syria, the recent attempts to stage terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory indicate that the organization is in no hurry to abandon the Israeli front
Col. (res.) Shlomo Mofaz
| 17/11/2016
Hezbollah warfighters (Photo: AP)
In early October 2016, it was reported that six inhabitants of the village of Ghajar in northern Israel were indicted for attempted espionage, communicating with a foreign agent, conspiring to commit a criminal offense and other offenses. According to the indictment, one of the suspects had contacted Hezbollah activists in May of this year and they provided him with two explosive charges which he cached in the area of Metula. The defendants were instructed to plant the charges at central transportation stations in Haifa. The option of planting the explosive charges at the Nesher cement works in the north was also considered. After conducting information-gathering patrols in the area and owing to their concerns regarding surveillance cameras, one of the defendants suggested that they plant the charges at the entrance to the village of Tur'an, near the Golani Junction – a known concentration of IDF servicemen. The charges were seized by the Israeli security forces on July 30, 2016, after having been spotted by a farmer who had found a bag containing two explosive charges in an agricultural field to the south of Metula. The explosive charges were identified as bearing the hallmarks of Hezbollah.
This was not the first attempt made by Hezbollah in the last year to stage terrorist attacks by employing recruits inside Israeli territory. Last summer, Israeli security forces rounded up a number of terrorist cells in the Judea and Samaria district, recruited by the organization to stage terrorist attacks inside Israel. One of the cells, rounded up in early June, had planned to stage attacks against IDF patrols in the Qualqilya area. The members of those cells, inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district, had been identified and recruited mainly through the social media. In January 2016, the Israeli security services uncovered a terrorist cell made up of inhabitants of Tulkarem who had been recruited by Hezbollah to stage terrorist attacks against military and civilian targets inside Israeli territory. Hezbollah had also contacted Arab citizens of Israel, who were located by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and warned that subsequent contacts with these elements through Facebook will constitute a criminal offense and might lead to their arrest. It should be noted that Hezbollah has a unique mechanism – Unit 133 – assigned to recruit and establish terrorist infrastructures inside Israeli territory by recruiting inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district and Israeli Arabs.
Hezbollah's intensive involvement in the war in Syria and the heavy casualties it has sustained there (more than 1,500 KIAs and more than 10,000 WIAs by October 2016) notwithstanding, the organization has no intention of abandoning the struggle against Israel. Hezbollah's involvement in the fighting in Syria stems from geopolitical, strategic and security considerations and from its commitment to Iran.
The Pressures Exerted on Hezbollah
The continuous fighting it has been involved in since 2011 presented the Shi'ite organization with an additional, religious dilemma owing to the confrontation with Sunni elements in Syria and Lebanon. The struggle against Israel was the organization's raison d'être and "resistance" is at the very top of its priorities. Hezbollah is committed to this struggle, both externally and internally (in Lebanon). At this time, it faces domestic criticism about its involvement in the fighting in Syria and its 'neglecting' of the theater opposite Israel. At the same time as developing its infrastructures, preparing for the long run and improving its preparedness, the organization must also demonstrate actual deeds, among other things – in order to silence the domestic criticism.
Hezbollah is not interested in a large-scale confrontation against Israel at this time, however, and regards low-signature operations inside Israeli territory that do not leave a significant fingerprint as one of its tools for maintaining its deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. Such activity, as Hezbollah sees it, remains below the threshold of provocation that would justify a forceful response on Israel's part. It provides the organization with latitude for maintaining its deterrence on the one hand while on the other hand providing a response to the domestic critics, who claim that Hezbollah had abandoned the primary theater opposite Israel for the benefit of engaging in combat outside of the borders of Lebanon, which does not serve the interests of Lebanon and the population Hezbollah had pledged to defend.
The timing chosen could reflect not just a random opportunity, but also an intent to execute the terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory so that they coincide with the tenth anniversary of the Second Lebanon War. This would have allowed Nasrallah to boast and hint in his address (August 13, 2016) on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the war ("Harb Tamuz") that the struggle against Israel continues all the time, in different ways, without assuming direct responsibility for the attacks. In his address, Nasrallah was his usual self, frequently lashing out at Israel and praising the "divine victory" allegedly achieved a decade earlier, glorifying the strength of his organization and the concerns in Israel about it: "…In the Israeli settlements near the border everyone goes to sleep early while in our villages near the border everyone is having fun until the early hours of the morning…", but, as stated, he would have liked to hint, even vaguely, at any additional achievements.
The success of such terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory will not lead, in Hezbollah's estimate, to a flare-up in the north, and Israel's response will probably be carefully measured and balanced. This could be a counterweight to the strikes Israel had carried out against convoys carrying arms for Hezbollah (according to foreign sources), based on the estimate that Hezbollah would not want to respond in a manner that would lead to a massive flare-up in the north. In this context, the recent deployment of Russian surface-to-air missile batteries in northern Syria could complicate possible future attacks on arms convoys to Lebanon.
Either way, Hezbollah will continue with their attempted indirect attacks inside Israeli territory while attempting to recruit the inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district and Israeli Arabs to execute those attacks. These attempts will continue alongside other theaters where Hezbollah operates against Israel and while pressing on with their emphasis on arming and deploying in Lebanon with Iran's support and incorporating the experience and lessons the Organization is gaining during the fighting in Syria. Any change in the extent of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria and/or a continuation of their loss of public support in Lebanon could lead to an increase in the scope of their attempts to stage terrorist attacks inside Israel, among other things – in order to relieve the pressure exerted on the organization domestically.
Despite the heavy casualties Hezbollah sustains in the war in Syria, the recent attempts to stage terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory indicate that the organization is in no hurry to abandon the Israeli front
In early October 2016, it was reported that six inhabitants of the village of Ghajar in northern Israel were indicted for attempted espionage, communicating with a foreign agent, conspiring to commit a criminal offense and other offenses. According to the indictment, one of the suspects had contacted Hezbollah activists in May of this year and they provided him with two explosive charges which he cached in the area of Metula. The defendants were instructed to plant the charges at central transportation stations in Haifa. The option of planting the explosive charges at the Nesher cement works in the north was also considered. After conducting information-gathering patrols in the area and owing to their concerns regarding surveillance cameras, one of the defendants suggested that they plant the charges at the entrance to the village of Tur'an, near the Golani Junction – a known concentration of IDF servicemen. The charges were seized by the Israeli security forces on July 30, 2016, after having been spotted by a farmer who had found a bag containing two explosive charges in an agricultural field to the south of Metula. The explosive charges were identified as bearing the hallmarks of Hezbollah.
This was not the first attempt made by Hezbollah in the last year to stage terrorist attacks by employing recruits inside Israeli territory. Last summer, Israeli security forces rounded up a number of terrorist cells in the Judea and Samaria district, recruited by the organization to stage terrorist attacks inside Israel. One of the cells, rounded up in early June, had planned to stage attacks against IDF patrols in the Qualqilya area. The members of those cells, inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district, had been identified and recruited mainly through the social media. In January 2016, the Israeli security services uncovered a terrorist cell made up of inhabitants of Tulkarem who had been recruited by Hezbollah to stage terrorist attacks against military and civilian targets inside Israeli territory. Hezbollah had also contacted Arab citizens of Israel, who were located by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and warned that subsequent contacts with these elements through Facebook will constitute a criminal offense and might lead to their arrest. It should be noted that Hezbollah has a unique mechanism – Unit 133 – assigned to recruit and establish terrorist infrastructures inside Israeli territory by recruiting inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district and Israeli Arabs.
Hezbollah's intensive involvement in the war in Syria and the heavy casualties it has sustained there (more than 1,500 KIAs and more than 10,000 WIAs by October 2016) notwithstanding, the organization has no intention of abandoning the struggle against Israel. Hezbollah's involvement in the fighting in Syria stems from geopolitical, strategic and security considerations and from its commitment to Iran.
The Pressures Exerted on Hezbollah
The continuous fighting it has been involved in since 2011 presented the Shi'ite organization with an additional, religious dilemma owing to the confrontation with Sunni elements in Syria and Lebanon. The struggle against Israel was the organization's raison d'être and "resistance" is at the very top of its priorities. Hezbollah is committed to this struggle, both externally and internally (in Lebanon). At this time, it faces domestic criticism about its involvement in the fighting in Syria and its 'neglecting' of the theater opposite Israel. At the same time as developing its infrastructures, preparing for the long run and improving its preparedness, the organization must also demonstrate actual deeds, among other things – in order to silence the domestic criticism.
Hezbollah is not interested in a large-scale confrontation against Israel at this time, however, and regards low-signature operations inside Israeli territory that do not leave a significant fingerprint as one of its tools for maintaining its deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. Such activity, as Hezbollah sees it, remains below the threshold of provocation that would justify a forceful response on Israel's part. It provides the organization with latitude for maintaining its deterrence on the one hand while on the other hand providing a response to the domestic critics, who claim that Hezbollah had abandoned the primary theater opposite Israel for the benefit of engaging in combat outside of the borders of Lebanon, which does not serve the interests of Lebanon and the population Hezbollah had pledged to defend.
The timing chosen could reflect not just a random opportunity, but also an intent to execute the terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory so that they coincide with the tenth anniversary of the Second Lebanon War. This would have allowed Nasrallah to boast and hint in his address (August 13, 2016) on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the war ("Harb Tamuz") that the struggle against Israel continues all the time, in different ways, without assuming direct responsibility for the attacks. In his address, Nasrallah was his usual self, frequently lashing out at Israel and praising the "divine victory" allegedly achieved a decade earlier, glorifying the strength of his organization and the concerns in Israel about it: "…In the Israeli settlements near the border everyone goes to sleep early while in our villages near the border everyone is having fun until the early hours of the morning…", but, as stated, he would have liked to hint, even vaguely, at any additional achievements.
The success of such terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory will not lead, in Hezbollah's estimate, to a flare-up in the north, and Israel's response will probably be carefully measured and balanced. This could be a counterweight to the strikes Israel had carried out against convoys carrying arms for Hezbollah (according to foreign sources), based on the estimate that Hezbollah would not want to respond in a manner that would lead to a massive flare-up in the north. In this context, the recent deployment of Russian surface-to-air missile batteries in northern Syria could complicate possible future attacks on arms convoys to Lebanon.
Either way, Hezbollah will continue with their attempted indirect attacks inside Israeli territory while attempting to recruit the inhabitants of the Judea and Samaria district and Israeli Arabs to execute those attacks. These attempts will continue alongside other theaters where Hezbollah operates against Israel and while pressing on with their emphasis on arming and deploying in Lebanon with Iran's support and incorporating the experience and lessons the Organization is gaining during the fighting in Syria. Any change in the extent of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria and/or a continuation of their loss of public support in Lebanon could lead to an increase in the scope of their attempts to stage terrorist attacks inside Israel, among other things – in order to relieve the pressure exerted on the organization domestically.
