The Triangle: Israel, Iran and the Arabs

The need to stop the Iranian nuclear project might raise a surprising strategic alliance. Ehud Eilam on the unique Middle East triangleA surprising potential regional alliance

From the 1950s to the 1970s, Israel considered Iran not only as a source of oil, but also as a potential ally against the Arabs. Now it is the other way around. Israel’s former wish to outflank the Arabs by reaching out to remote states such as Iran has now switched to Israeli attempts to join the Arabs against this external threat to the region in which both Israel and the Arabs live.

Israel, because of its military strength, could, ironically, be the Arabs’ most powerful ally in the region against Iran. On the other hand, Arabs have several reasons not to cooperate with the Jewish state. Israel knows how to fight a coalition based on Arab states, not joining it. To be sure, the relatively new Iranian-Israeli conflict will not replace the old Arab-Israeli conflict. However, this does not preclude the possibility of Arab states and Israel rising together against the threatening challenge posed by Iran. It would probably be an unofficial, temporary and ad hoc alliance or perhaps even just a general strategic understanding. For several Arab states, Israel would act as a powerful non-Arab state in the Middle East, sharing common interests with them.

Because of the Iranian intervention in Iraq, Israel would be particularly sensitive to the situation in Jordan that has a border with Iraq. An Iranian presence in the Hashemite kingdom that has the longest border with Israel would be a new and disturbing development for Israel.

If the talks between world powers, including the United States, and Iran fail the latter could consider all kinds of steps. It is reasonable for Iran to assume that the United States in particular would not tolerate an Iranian aggression against a Gulf state. Israel would not send her troops to the Gulf, nor would the Arabs ask for that. But the United States could fight in the Gulf and convey to Iran the message that there would be a strong response against Iran. In considering all of American capabilities, Iran might be induced to rethink any dangerous adventure in the Gulf.

The most important factor in an Israeli-Arab strategic axis against Iran, at least in the near future, is the need to stop the Iranian nuclear project. Arab states might tolerate Israeli aircraft penetrating into their territory, on their way to attack targets in Iran. Such an operation could be mounted without any open cooperation with the local Arab militaries.

The Arabs would probably agree to turn a blind eye after the failure of all other international efforts, such as sanctions. Arab governments would probably come under criticism for this, but even then it would be preferable to them, if only to delay a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Once Iran obtains the bomb, Arab countries like Saudi Arabia might seek this weapon in order to shield themselves from Tehran.

Even if a massive Israeli offensive obliterates a large part of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure it might not put an end to this issue. As long as the Iranian regime is not replaced, it could continue to aspire to produce nuclear weapons, perhaps with more determination.

Attacks against Iran could convince the country’s leadership that their enemies’ ultimate goal is to oust their regime, as they did with Saddam Hussain in Iraq, and having nuclear weapons would be the only means of deterring their foes from adopting this policy. Iran would then seek to gain nuclear weapons as soon as possible, by focusing all efforts on obtaining the Bomb.

All in all if not stopped, Iran could create a momentum in which other Arab states might consider joining it. This would represent a drastic change in the strategic balance between Iran and Israel.

This article is based on an article that was published in the Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, (Volume Two Number Two, 2008). For questions, comments etc. please write to Ehud at [email protected]

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