Opinions

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The Military Agreement between Syria and Iran

Commentary:  An important strategic fact is that this new agreement pushes the traditional relationship between Syria and Russia aside, both defensively and technologically and politically. It is an attempt at strategic "substitution" that could have long-term effects.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 19/07/2020 Contact author

A Russian Yars ICBM system. Photo; Reuters

The Russian Missile and Nuclear System

Commentary: Under an Executive Order issued recently by Russia, nuclear weapons are defined as "only as means of deterrence" whose use is always an "extreme and compulsory" measure. But Russia foresees itself having a nuclear force which can quickly inflict as much damage as possible upon any attacker

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 16/07/2020 Contact author

Launch of the Ofek-16 satellite on July 6. Photo: IAI 

The Israeli Military Satellite Ofek-16

Commentary:  With the Ofek-16 satellite, Israel can observe the whole Middle East and other regions with great precision. Undoubtedly, the satellite is designed to closely monitor the Iranian nuclear program, but the race for satellite imagery intelligence has now spread to the entire Middle East and the Maghreb region.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 14/07/2020 Contact author

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The Outstanding Issue of the Libyan Intelligence Services

Commentary: Libya's Intelligence Services have been without a leader since the death of Abdoullah Masoud Al Darsi in April. There are currently many more candidates than usual competing to replace him. Meanwhile, the Turkish Intelligence Service is now capable of deciding many posts and positions in the Tripoli government, pulling rank and underlining its military role in Libya.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 13/07/2020 Contact author

Indian army trucks move along a highway leading to Ladakh. Photo: Reuters

India and China in the Clash for Ladakh

Commentary: China does not need to wage war on India insofar as it can force the Indian government to do what China wants. China also wants to reaffirm mutual neutrality between China and India, while it thinks that Indian President Modi has above all nationalistic aims in the Himalayan region and in the arc of the Three Borders. In essence, Modi's India has chosen on which side to stand in the next "Cold War", which in any case has already started.  

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 10/07/2020 Contact author

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Russia’s Geopolitics and Strategy in the Future

Commentary:  The last complete Russian military doctrine was conceived during a very different phase of the East-West confrontation, before Russia's participation in the war in Syria and hence even before the new projection of Russian power onto the Mediterranean. In any case, 2020 is an end point for Russian military planners. Many things will be decided in the relations between East and West based on the military doctrine developed this year

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 5/07/2020 Contact author

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of his country's Security Council. Photo: Reuters

The Russian Constitutional Referendum of July 1, 2020

Commentary: What does President Putin want to achieve with his constitutional reform? Centralization of true power in his hands, up to two terms and even beyond but, on the other hand, distribution regulated by the central power to the regional governments. A new configuration of power in Russia until Putin finds his true heir apparent. If he ever finds him, of course.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 30/06/2020 Contact author

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The Theory of Hybrid Warfare as Developed by Generals Gerasimov and Primakov

Commentary:  Hybrid warfare is a way to combine the masses of infantry on the ground with new technologies that create a whole new domain of operations. Certainly technological superiority counts - indeed it is essential - but what really matters is the full and absolute political power on a territory or on a specific technology, operation, influence or Denial Area action.

Giancarlo Elia Valori | 25/06/2020 Contact author

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