שוטי הנבואה

על הקשר בין הסקרים לקראת הבחירות בארה"ב למערכות איסוף מודיעין ובקרה בשדה הקרב המודרני

צילום: AP

ברמה הפילוסופית נוהגים לתאר את שדה הקרב כממלכת אי-הוודאות, או כפי שכינה זאת פורסט גאמפ : "קופסת שוקולד, שאינך יודע מה יש בה עד שאתה פותח"...

בעשור האחרון בוצעו מספר צעדים משמעותיים בארץ ובעולם, על מנת-לצמצם את ממד אי-הודאות בשדה הקרב, וזאת באמצעות מערכות מידע המותקנות בשלל פלטפורמות הקרב (כולל לוחם החי"ר), כאשר כל "שחקן" מהווה למעשה חיישן או סוכן מידע, המעביר נתונים לאחור. תפיסה זו, המתבססת על "חכמת ההמונים" (בדומה לאפליקציית WAZE) מהווה תשתית ידע הנצבר לשם הבנת או גיבוש תמונת המצב.

ועם זאת הדעות חלוקות באשר לתרומתן של מערכות אלו לתהליכי קבלת ההחלטות: מחד יש הטוענים כי המידע העצום שזורם משלל ה"סוכנים" בקרב בונה תמונה איכותית ב-REAL TIME, המאפשרת ביצוע מהלכים אמיצים ונועזים. מנגד, יש הטוענים כי מערכות אלו בעצם ממסגרות את יכולת ההחלטה, ומוציאות מכלל חשיבות או מפחיתות את גורם ההפתעה, הגורם הבלתי צפוי. אם נחזור לפילוסופיה, מדובר למעשה במתח שבין כאוס נשלט לכאוס טוטאלי.

כך או אחרת, בשנים האחרונות ההתבססות על מערכות המידע הלכה והתעצמה, ונדמה שאין החלטה שלא מסתמכת היום על הביצועים שלהן.

אולם הסתכלות אוניברסאלית על המושג "מידע" מלמדת שכאשר מדובר בסוגיות כאוטיות, לעיתים, הניסיון לחפש חוקיות, לא רק בטל בשישים, הוא אפילו מטעה, ועשוי להוביל לקונספציות שגויות שמהן המסלול להפתעה טוטאלית הוא קצר מאוד ומסוכן מאוד. יתרה מכך, עיקר האירועים המשמעותיים של השנים האחרונות לא "עלו" במערכות המידע.

האירוע המשמעותי והאחרון עליו ניתן להסתמך כמשל הוא הבחירות בארצות הברית, שהרי הניסיון לחזות אותן התבסס על סקרי המונים, ואלו ניבאו שבסבירות הקרובה ל-100 אחוזים, תהיה זו הילארי קלינטון, המועמדת הדמוקרטית, שתנצח. בבחינת האלגוריתם של הבדיקה – אכן מדובר בהסתברות גבוהה ביותר, שמסתמכת על מודלים סטטיסטיים. התוצאה התגלתה לעינינו רק בימים האחרונים: הפתעה מוחלטת, שייתכן ואפילו הדהימה את המועמד שניצח, דונלד טראמפ.

הנמשל מאירוע זה הוא התורפה הממשית מהתבססות יתר על מערכות המידע ועל חכמת המונים, ובאופן שממסגר את ההחלטות למכלול האפשרויות הסבירות. כאשר המערכות עוסקות בשני צדדים חושבים, הרי שצד אחד מגיב לצד השני. ומערכות המידע בדרך-כלל אינן עוסקות בתורת המשחקים, אלא בסטטיסטיקה הסתברותית פשוטה, ובדגש על מערכות הקרב, שעל פי הידוע אינן בנויות על אלגוריתמים מסוג זה.

כאן מתבהרת המסקנה החשובה: הסקרים הם בסיס, אולם הפרשנות היא המהות. בחינה של הסקרים מלמדת שמקור הבעיה איננו בסקרים או בסוקרים, שכן "האותיות הקטנות" תמיד ילמדו אותנו שאין יכולת ניבוי של 100 אחוזים, ושתמיד יש מרווח טעות או דרגות חופש. תובנה סטטיסטית זו חייבת להיות מודגשת בתהליכי החשיבה הצבאיים, ולכן החשיבות המרכזית איננה למידע, אלא לתהליכי הפרשנות שלו, מה שנקרא בטרמינולוגיה הצבאית "הערכת המצב".

המסכים והמידע המופיע עליהם, אם-כן, אינם אלא פנס בודד ברחוב חשוך, הנותן הארה מקומית על הקשר מסוים. ההבנה שרוב המרחב נתון תחת "אפלת מידע" מחייבת את מקבלי ההחלטות להשקיע זמן רב ואיכותי בתהליכי מחשב, תוך לקיחה בחשבון של תרחישים אחרים העשויים להפתיע, ושיש בהם סיכון מהותי לתכנית שהתגבשה – תובנות מתהליכים אלו הן פלטפורמה לחיזוק התכנון, ויצירת גמישות אופרטיבית למצבים פחות סבירים.

בעולם מתקדם וחסר מעצורים, אסור לשכוח שהנבואה בתקופתנו ניתנה (כנראה) רק לשוטים.

 

 

 

הכותב הינו אלוף-משנה במילואים, כיום דוקטורנט במדעי המדינה העוסק במחקר על יחסי צבא וחברה

הוסף תגובה חדשה

בשליחת תגובה אני מסכים/ה לתנאי האתר
To prevent automated spam submissions leave this field empty.
Image CAPTCHA

Very nicе wrіte-up. I absolutely appreciate this website.<br><br> Sticқ with it!<br><br> <br><br> Stop by my website; <a href="http://gas-on.co.kr/board/3964143">skin Care products for Men</a>

Getting ready to pass state boards would not prevent creative <br><br> teaching where students' views are respected and acted on. <br><br> Although there are certainly not many guys who may have this concern, SOME OF <br><br> YOU may have. This is dead wrong, women need gentle sex to acquire them properly <br><br> aroused.<br><br> <br><br> my site: high quality porn - http://moneypapers.com/vb/member.php?u=434031-ClaytonAma

This is the perfect webpage for everyone who really wants to find out <br><br> about this topic. You realize a whole lot its almost hard to argue with <br><br> you (not that I personally will needd to…HaHa).<br><br> You definitely put a brtand new spin on a subject which has been discussed <br><br> for many years. Excellent stuff, just wonderful!<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to visit my blog post - <a href="http://blogs.rowlandhs.org/groups/apchemistry/wiki/e3f3d/Outsourcing_The_Campaign_Print_to_a_Inventive_Designing_And_Printing_Corporation.html">printing vip</a>

It's remarkable for me to have a site, which is valuble in favor of my know-how.<br><br> thanks admin<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my web blokg ... fifty fiveprints <br><br> - http://mscie.dot.tf/wiki/index.php/Outsourcing_The_Promotion_Print_to_some_Inventive_Designing_And_Printing_Business

hey thgere and thank you ffor your info – I've certainly picked up anything new from <br><br> right here. I did however expertise several technical issues using this web site, since I <br><br> experienced to reload the website a lot of times previous to I could geet it to load correctly.<br><br> I had been wondering if your web hosting <br><br> is OK? Not that I am complaining, but slow loadjng instances times will often affect your placement in oogle and could daage your high-quality score if advertising and marketing <br><br> with Adwords. Well I'm adding this RSS to myy email and can look outt <br><br> for a lot more of your respective fascinating content. Make <br><br> sure you update this again very soon.<br><br> <br><br> Also visit my webb page: <a href="http://Greatwebcamchat.info/free-chat/free-sex-chat-no-membership.html">Chat erotico gratis video domains For sale</a>

I was recommended this blog by my cousin. I'm not sure whether this <br><br> post is written by him as no one else know such detailed bout my problem.<br><br> You're wonderful! Thanks!<br><br> <br><br> Check out mmy web site; Nathaniel - http://www.wanjuyuncom.com/comment/html/index.php?page=1&id=34471

Hey there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us sso I <br><br> came too give it a look. I'm definitely enjoying the information. I'm book-marking <br><br> aand will be tweeting this to my followers! Outstanding blog and fantastic style and design.<br><br> <br><br> Also visit my homepage <a href="http://www.zugrav-iasi.info/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=829841">50 X 50 Poster Printing</a>

Hello! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers?<br><br> I'm kinda paranoid about losing everything I've worked <br><br> hard on. Any recommendations?<br><br> <br><br> Here is my homepage - What is the best Soccer rebounder - http://cnc-printers.ru/user/soccernetshop9053358/

Goood article. I will be facing many of these issues as well..<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Visit my web-site; 55prints - http://kitesurfpedia.org/Outsourcing_work_The_Strategy_Print_to_some_Inventive_Creating_And_Stamping_Small_business

Hello There. I found your blog using msn. Thiss <br><br> is an extremely well written article. I will be sure to bookmark <br><br> it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post.<br><br> <br><br> I'll definitely return.<br><br> <br><br> Also visit my web page :: Sang - http://mscie.dot.tf/wiki/index.php/How_to_Discover_the_Greatest_Printing_Organization_for_Your_Company

You should take part in a contest for one <br><br> of the highest quality websites online. I will highly recommend this blog!<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> my page <a href="http://www.phoolnagar.pk/bazar/ads/natural-herbs-to-increase-womens-sex-drive/">Jolene</a>

Every weekend i used to pay a visit this web page, because <br><br> i want enjoyment, as this tuis website conations genuinely nic funny information too.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> my web-site; Poster printing options - http://51kyw.net/home.php?mod=space&uid=246023&do=profile&from=space

I like the helpful information you provide in your articles.<br><br> <br><br> I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently.<br><br> I am quite certain I will learn a lot of new stuff right here!<br><br> <br><br> Good luck for the next!<br><br> <br><br> my web page <a href="http://www.abshar.biz/content/how-build-wooden-soccer-rebounder-wall">How To Build A Wooden Soccer Rebounder Wall</a>

Wow, amazing blog layout! How ong have you been blogging for?<br><br> you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your site is fantastic, as <br><br> well as the content!<br><br> <br><br> Here is my homepage :: a3 poster printing free <br><br> Delivery - http://www.zgztjj.com/comment/html/index.php?page=1&id=40893

These are really enormous ideas in on the topic of blogging.<br><br> You have touched some good things here. Any way keep up wrinting.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my blog :: 20X30 Poster <br><br> Printing - http://seesaawiki.jp/clbrandjapanxc/d/%a5%eb%a5%d6%a5%bf%a5%f3%20Christian%20Louboutin%20%bd%f7%c0%ad%cd%d1%20%a5%b5%a5%f3%a5%c0%a5%eb%20%bf%cd%b5%a4

Hi, I doo believe tis is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it ;) I am going <br><br> to return yet again since I book-marked it.<br><br> <br><br> Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Also visit mmy webpage: <a href="http://www.sync-pro.com/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=917030">poster Printing virginia beach</a>

Your style is so unique in comparison to other people I've read stuff from.<br><br> Thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just bookmark this page.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Also visit my blog: Pocket Knife Reviews Which Is The <br><br> Best One - http://www.labelind.unicas.it/wiki_IoT/index.php/Best_Pocket_Knife_For_100_Dollars

There's definately a great deal to find out about this topic.<br><br> <br><br> I really like all of the points you made.<br><br> <br><br> My page; <a href="http://brainedu.ube.ac.kr/conference/425412">Amos</a>

Hello, i think that i saw you visited my web site thus <br><br> i came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to find <br><br> things to enhance my web site!I suppose its okk to use a <br><br> few of your ideas!!<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my homepage: Poster Printing Wwu - http://Scgrupoelite.com/component/k2/itemlist/user/2545.html

Hi everyone, it's mmy first go to see at this site, and article is genuinely fruitful for me, keep up posting <br><br> such articles or reviews.<br><br> <br><br> Also visit my web blog popster printing fayetteville ar - http://www.hakkah.net/simbrowiki/User:ArmandMordaunt

I've been exploring for a little for any high-quality articles or blog posts in this sort of <br><br> space . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this website.<br><br> <br><br> Studying this information So i am happy to convey that I've a very excellent uncanny feeling I came upon just what I needed.<br><br> <br><br> I most indisputably will make sure to don?t overlook this web site and give it a look regularly.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> <br><br> My website - <a href="http://iresource.ilearningvn.net/index.php/Best_Soccer_Rebounder_Trainer">Http://Iresource.Ilearningvn.Net</a>

Hi, all the time i used to check website posts here in the <br><br> early hours in the daylight, as i love to learn more and more.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> My blog -<a href="http://navi.wiki/index.php/Contracting_out_The_Promotion_Print_into_a_Inventive_Planning_And_Printing_Business">vip printing</a>

At tthis time I aam going to do my breakfast, later than having my <br><br> breakfast coming yet again to read other news.<br><br> <br><br> my homepage a0 poster printing Uk - http://zmuck.com/author/dorrisstanl/

Hi there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a team <br><br> of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche.<br><br> <br><br> Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. <br><br> You have done a outstanding job!<br><br> <br><br> Here is my web page :: https://yuyudhan.xyz/ - https://yuyudhan.xyz/groups/best-rated-soccer-rebounder-1821767268/

Hi there! This blog post couldn't be written much better!<br><br> <br><br> Reading through this article reminds me of my previous roommate!<br><br> He always kept preaching about this. I am going to <br><br> send this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a very good read.<br><br> Many thanks for sharing!<br><br> <br><br> My site; <a href="http://www.thefreecloset.com/index.php?page=user&action=pub_profile&id=808015">Ruthie</a>

I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you create this <br><br> website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?<br><br> Plz answer back as I'm looking to design my own blog and would like to know <br><br> where u got this from. thanks<br><br> <br><br> Visit my web-site - Anna - http://spovita.com/event_2/2049388

I'm extremeely inspired alongg with your writing abilities as well as witth the forat on your <br><br> weblog. Is that this a paiid theme or didd you customize it yourself?<br><br> Anyway keep up the nice quwlity writing, it's uncommon to peer <br><br> a nice blokg like this one these days..<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to visit my homepage; <a href="http://wikimu.org/index.php/Contracting_out_The_Strategy_Produce_into_a_Creative_Designing_And_Generating_Organization">55 Prints Company</a>

I enjoy, result inn I found exactly what I used to be having a look for.<br><br> You have ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day.<br><br> Bye<br><br> <br><br> Here is myy weblog 55printed - http://www.ongoinghub.com/index.php/Outsourced_workers_The_Marketing_campaign_Printing_to_your_Inventive_Planning_And_Printing_Organization

It is in reality a nice and helpful piece of information. <br><br> I am satisfied that you shared this helpful information with us.<br><br> <br><br> Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> my homepage: <a href="http://www.huskiesclan.de/user/?action=user&id=23521">How To Make A Soccer Rebounder Wall</a>

Keep this going please, great job!<br><br> <br><br> my web-site: Printing A Poster From Powerpoint - http://www.aardvarktopsitesphp.com/topsites/index.php?a=stats&u=selinasantos88

I feel that is among the so much significant inforfmation for me.<br><br> And i amm glad studying your article. But wasnna observation on few general issues,<br><br> The website style is wonderful, the articles is actually <br><br> excellent : D. Just right activity, cheers<br><br> <br><br> Look at my weblog :: <a href="http://yerxarocks.com/advancedguestbook/">Tahlia</a>

Hello, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam comments?<br><br> <br><br> If so how do you protect against it, any plugin or anything you can advise?<br><br> I get so much lately it's driving me mad so any assistance is very much appreciated.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my site :: <a href="http://m.pfamaqa.sms.morris.com/best-soccer-rebounder-reviews-2">Lelia</a>

Ahaa, its nice dialogue about this paragraph here at this webpage, I <br><br> have read all that, so now mee also commenting at this place.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Alsso visit my site: Http://Helmyhashim.Com/ - <br><br> http://helmyhashim.com/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=1476182

Hello this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering <br><br> if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or iff you have to manually code with HTML.<br><br> I'm sfarting a blog soon bbut have no coing <br><br> experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience.<br><br> <br><br> Any help would be enormously appreciated!<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to visit my webpage: <a href="http://gaimder.online/index.php?title=Outsourcing_The_Strategy_Produce_to_your_Inventive_Designing_And_Publishing_Business_enterprise">fifty Five prints</a>

Hiya! Quick question that's totally off topic. Do you know howw to make your site mobile friendly?<br><br> <br><br> My blog looks weird when viewing from my iphone 4.<br><br> I'm trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue.<br><br> If you have any suggestions, please share. Many thanks!<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my blpog - http://55printing.com - http://bluestrike.net/index.php?title=Outsourced_workers_The_Promotion_Produce_to_a_Creative_Creating_And_Stamping_Business

Forr most recent information you have to visit internet and on ihternet I found this site as a most excellent web page for latest updates.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Visit my site; poster printing wvu - http://www.czblhl.com/comment/html/index.php?page=1&id=111905

I have been browsing on-line more than 3 hours aas of late, yet I by no means found any interesting article like yours.<br><br> It iis beautiful worth sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all website owners and bloggets made <br><br> just right content material as you probably did, the internet can be much more useful than ever before.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my web blog ... <a href="http://www.aicangguan.com/space-uid-48895.html?do=profile">Poster Printing Mit</a>

Hi i am kavin, its my first time to commenting anywhere, when i read this post i thought <br><br> i could also make comment due to thos good article.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> My webpage a3 poster printing prices - http://www.spacethefinalfrontiercr.com/index.php/component/k2/item/19-us-green-day-storms-off-stage/19-us-green-day-storms-off-stage?start=0

What's up сolleagues, how is the whole <br><br> thing, and what you want to say ϲoncerning this post, in my view its in fact awesome for me.<br><br> <br><br> <br><br> Here is my weblߋg; <a href="http://agme-News.com/article.php?id=163502">make your skin look Younger</a>

Wow, awesome blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?<br><br> you make blogging look easy. The overall look of yopur web sife <br><br> iss great, let alone the content!<br><br> <br><br> Feeel free to surf to my blog; 55Printing .Com Company - http://www.animalgenome.org/infopedia/index.php/Outsourcing_The_Campaign_Printing_to_your_Inventive_Designing_And_Generating_Organization

Thank you for the good writeup. It actually was once a entertainment acount it.<br><br> Look complicated to far delivered agreeable from you!<br><br> By the way, how can we ksep in touch?<br><br> <br><br> my weblog <a href="http://es.wikimini.org/wiki/How_to_Discover_the_Greatest_Printing_Firm_for_Your_Company">Bonnie</a>

Since the admin of this site is working, no hesitation very rapidly <br><br> it will be famous, due to its quality contents.<br><br> <br><br> My homepage How to improve sexual stamina with exercise - http://dangtimes.com/index.php?mid=board_EwdP27&document_srl=5357326

Thanks for the marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it, you are a great author.<br><br> I will remember to boomark your blog and will eventually come back later in life.<br><br> I want to encourfage you to continue your greast job, <br><br> have a nice day!<br><br> <br><br> Feeel free to visit my web site; canvas printing jakarta - http://www.hidesertstar.com/observation_post/news/article_2e652e9c-b34c-11e6-b77d-cb223316c72d.html

You should be a part of a contest for one of the finest websites on the net.<br><br> I'm going to recommend this blog!<br><br> <br><br> My weblog; <a href="http://iresource.ilearningvn.net/index.php/Soccer_Rebounder_Goals_Reviews">Dominique</a>

Appreciation to myy fagher who shared with me regarding this webpage, this webpage <br><br> is genuinely amazing.<br><br> <br><br> Feel free to surf to my website :: Nicki - https://www.schandtaeter.info/index.php?title=The_Advantages_of_Posters

Hey there! Wuld you mind iif I share yourr blog with my zyngaa <br><br> group? There's a lot of people that I think woluld really apprexiate your content.<br><br> <br><br> Please llet me know. Thanks<br><br> <br><br> Also visit my website :: <a href="http://www.boxesnet.com/content/benefits-hiring-printing-professional">20 x 20 poster printing</a>

I am no longer sure the place you're getting your info, however <br><br> great topic. I must spend some time learning more or working out more.<br><br> Thank you for great information I was looking for this info for my mission.<br><br> <br><br> Here is my weblog; Kitchen Knife Set $200 - http://Cryptowiki.com/index.php?title=Losing_Stomach_Fat

Hello mates, how is everything, and what you wish for to say <br><br> about this piece of writing, in my view its really amazing <br><br> in support of me.<br><br> <br><br> Have a look at my site: <a href="https://www.saekyung.ac.kr/sa/?document_srl=599257">Adrianne</a>

whoah this blog is fantastic i like reading your articles.<br><br> Stay up the great work! Yoou understand, many persons are looking around for this information, you could aid <br><br> them greatly.<br><br> <br><br> my homepage :: <a href="http://www.qqmok.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=30793&do=profile&from=space">Poster printing Qatar</a>

עמודים

אולי יעניין אותך גם

מערכת "שמיים אדומים" - באדיבות תעש מערכות

הדגמה מוצלחת למערכת "שמיים אדומים" של תעש מערכות

המערכת משולבת עם מכ"מ מתקדם לגילוי רחפנים בטווחים של ק"מ בודדים, ומצוידת במצלמה טרמית מתקדמת לחקירה ולזיהוי האיום וכן יכולת נעילה על המטרה במטרה לשבש את התקשורת בין המפעיל לבין הרחפן