כישלון ניסוי ה"חץ 3": האם מערכת הביטחון שיקרה?

הניסוי של מערכת ההגנה האווירית, ה"חץ", היה אמור להיות משמעותי, בישראל מיהרו להכריז על הצלחה, אולם גורם ביטחוני טוען כי "הניסוי לא הצליח ולא נכשל, משום שהמיירט לא שוגר". פרשנות של עמיר רפפורט

זה היה אמור להיות יום חגיגי במיוחד למערכת הביטחון הישראלית ולשותפיה האמריקאים: לפני הצהריים שוגר מלב ים טיל "אנקור כסוף" שהיה אמור להיות מטרה לטיל "חץ 3 בניסוי יירוט ראשון מסוגו. הטיל לא שוגר, ואולם השאלה הגדולה שעלה אחרי הניסוי לא הייתה קשורה לכך שהניסוי לא הצליח אלא "האם מערכה ביטחון שיקרה לגבי תוצאות הניסוי"? לכל הפחות, אמרה חצי אמת.

בהודעה מטעם מערכת הביטחון נמסר ביום שלישי כי "ניסוי מתוכנן במערכת הנשק 'חץ', שבמסגרתו כחלק מההכנות לניסוי יירוט עתידי, שוגר טיל מטרה אשר ביצע את מסלולו בהצלחה.

"בניסוי השתתפו נציגי מערך ההגנה מפני טילים  האמריקני והתעשיות המעורבות בפיתוח מערכת הנשק: הקבלן הראשי לפיתוח מערכת הנשק ומיירטי ה"חץ" הינו מפעל מל"מ של התעשייה האווירית, אשר פועל בשיתוף חברת אלתא- חטיבה וחברת בת של התעשייה האווירית. את מערכת ניהול הירי פיתחה אלביט מערכות / אלישרא. את טיל המטרה פיתחה חברת רפאל.  חברת בואינג (boeing) שותפה לתע"א / מל"מ בפיתוח וייצור חץ".

ועכשיו לאמת המלאה:  הניסוי שתוכנן ליום שלישי היה אמור להיות משמעותי במיוחד במסגרת פיתוח הטיל "חץ 3" שכן עד כה רק נבדקו מערכות הטיל ולא בוצע יירוט מלא על ידו.

 המערכת מפותחת בישראל בתקציב משותף לארצות הברית ולמשרד הביטחון הישראלי, והיא אמורה לתת מענה לאיום טילים בליסטיים ממקומות מרוחקים כמו איראן- כבר מחוץ לאסטמוספירה.

על פי תפיסת "הגנה רב שכבתית", אם יירוט זה ייכשל יהיו ניסיונות נוספים בשכבות גובה נמוכות יותר על ידי מערכו הגנה ותיקות  

בניסוי ביום ג' צו באופן חי עשרו מראשי הפרויקט מארצות הברית ומישראל. השלב הראשון אכן עבר בהצלחה מלאה: מכ"מ המערכת זיהה את טיל המטרה, ושיגר נתונים מדויקים אלא שאז הוחלט לא לשגר את הטיל המיירט היקר.

גורם ביטחוני בכיר הסביר בדיעבד "כי הניסוי, למעשה , לא הצליח ולא נכשל, משום שהמיירט לא שוגר".  לדבריו, הפרמטרים   עליהם הוחלט לא לבצע את היירוט הוגדרו במערכת מראש.

כישלונות מעין אלה הם חלק נורמלי מתהליך פיתוח של כל מערכת כל כך מתקדמת, וסביר להניח כי הליקויים יתוקנו לקראת הניסוי הבא. מערכת הביטחון לא תוכל לספק הסבר מספק מדוע בהודעה שפורסמה בתחילה, סופר רק על על החלק הראשון של הניסוי שהצליח, ולא על החלק השני- שנכשל. 

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