Assessment: Russia Sees No Justification for Permanent Iranian Presence in Syria
According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Moscow is aware of the fact that the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria could lead to direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, thereby posing a threat to the gains made by the Assad regime
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 24/05/2018
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57487
A recent publication by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center at the Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center claims that Russian declarations regarding the removal of foreign forces from Syria have encountered great criticism in Iran.
“The statements made by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and his Presidential Envoy to Syria, Alexander Laverentiev, calling on foreign forces, including those of Iran and Hezbollah, to depart Syria, have been met with a sharp rebuke in Iran toward Russia. On May 17, 2018, the Russian president met with the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, at the Sochi retreat. Following the meeting, President Putin declared that progress in the settlement process in Syria should accelerate the withdrawal of foreign forces from Syria.
“The day following the meeting, Putin’s presidential envoy to Syria clarified that the Russian president referred to all foreign forces in Syria, including Iranian, Hezbollah, Turkish and American troops. Laverentiev emphasized that Putin’s statement is a “political message,” but added that it should not be seen as the beginning of a withdrawal process of foreign forces from the country. He added that such a withdrawal is a very complicated matter, since these steps need to be implemented alongside and as part of a stabilization process of the region.
“In an initial response to the Russian statements, the Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bahram Qasemi, stated that no one can force Iran to do anything. According to him, Iran will remain in Syria as long as the terrorist threat is present there and as long as the Syrian government is interested in Iran’s presence. During his weekly press conference, Qasemi asserted that those who must leave Syria are those who entered it without the approval of the Syrian government, referring to Turkey and the United States.”
According to the publication, the Russians are putting pressure on Iran over the nuclear deal as well. “… Alongside the denunciations of Russia’s statements regarding the Syrian issue, criticism has emerged in Tehran concerning Russia’s policy with regards to the future of the nuclear accord following the announcement of President Trump on the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement. On May 15, 2018, the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Ribakov, was quoted as saying that it would be impossible to maintain the nuclear accord without concessions from Tehran. Shortly after the publication of the report, it became apparent that the report was based on a mistaken translation and that the deputy foreign minister was in fact referring to the American attempt to incorporate a requirement for Iranian concessions. However, at this point, Ribakov’s misreported statements had already aroused sharp criticism and increased the sense of distrust toward the Kremlin.”
The Center assesses that “As long as the civil war in Syria continued to rage with full force, the military and political cooperation between Iran and Russia could be sustained based on shared interests, which are preventing Syria’s fall in the hands of the rebels and guarding against Western influence in Syria. But the progress in the negotiations concerning the end of the war and the stabilization of the Assad regime are increasing the likelihood of growing tensions between the two countries.”
“At this stage,” they conclude, “Russia still recognizes the necessity of Iran’s involvement and that of the Shi’ite militias operating under Tehran’s patronage in Syria, as the military campaign has not been decisively won yet. However, the statements by senior Russian officials repeatedly indicate that Russia sees no justification for a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria. In addition, Moscow is aware of the fact that the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria is creating growing tensions with Israel, to the point of direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, threatening the gains made by the Assad regime and jeopardizing the negotiations’ process to end the war. We therefore assess that discord between Iran and Russia may grow even further as the negotiations to end the war progress, which will determine the fate of President Assad, and as Moscow recognizes that stabilizing the situation in Syria requires reducing Iranian presence in the country.”
According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Moscow is aware of the fact that the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria could lead to direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, thereby posing a threat to the gains made by the Assad regime
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57487
A recent publication by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center at the Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center claims that Russian declarations regarding the removal of foreign forces from Syria have encountered great criticism in Iran.
“The statements made by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and his Presidential Envoy to Syria, Alexander Laverentiev, calling on foreign forces, including those of Iran and Hezbollah, to depart Syria, have been met with a sharp rebuke in Iran toward Russia. On May 17, 2018, the Russian president met with the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, at the Sochi retreat. Following the meeting, President Putin declared that progress in the settlement process in Syria should accelerate the withdrawal of foreign forces from Syria.
“The day following the meeting, Putin’s presidential envoy to Syria clarified that the Russian president referred to all foreign forces in Syria, including Iranian, Hezbollah, Turkish and American troops. Laverentiev emphasized that Putin’s statement is a “political message,” but added that it should not be seen as the beginning of a withdrawal process of foreign forces from the country. He added that such a withdrawal is a very complicated matter, since these steps need to be implemented alongside and as part of a stabilization process of the region.
“In an initial response to the Russian statements, the Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bahram Qasemi, stated that no one can force Iran to do anything. According to him, Iran will remain in Syria as long as the terrorist threat is present there and as long as the Syrian government is interested in Iran’s presence. During his weekly press conference, Qasemi asserted that those who must leave Syria are those who entered it without the approval of the Syrian government, referring to Turkey and the United States.”
According to the publication, the Russians are putting pressure on Iran over the nuclear deal as well. “… Alongside the denunciations of Russia’s statements regarding the Syrian issue, criticism has emerged in Tehran concerning Russia’s policy with regards to the future of the nuclear accord following the announcement of President Trump on the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement. On May 15, 2018, the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Ribakov, was quoted as saying that it would be impossible to maintain the nuclear accord without concessions from Tehran. Shortly after the publication of the report, it became apparent that the report was based on a mistaken translation and that the deputy foreign minister was in fact referring to the American attempt to incorporate a requirement for Iranian concessions. However, at this point, Ribakov’s misreported statements had already aroused sharp criticism and increased the sense of distrust toward the Kremlin.”
The Center assesses that “As long as the civil war in Syria continued to rage with full force, the military and political cooperation between Iran and Russia could be sustained based on shared interests, which are preventing Syria’s fall in the hands of the rebels and guarding against Western influence in Syria. But the progress in the negotiations concerning the end of the war and the stabilization of the Assad regime are increasing the likelihood of growing tensions between the two countries.”
“At this stage,” they conclude, “Russia still recognizes the necessity of Iran’s involvement and that of the Shi’ite militias operating under Tehran’s patronage in Syria, as the military campaign has not been decisively won yet. However, the statements by senior Russian officials repeatedly indicate that Russia sees no justification for a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria. In addition, Moscow is aware of the fact that the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria is creating growing tensions with Israel, to the point of direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, threatening the gains made by the Assad regime and jeopardizing the negotiations’ process to end the war. We therefore assess that discord between Iran and Russia may grow even further as the negotiations to end the war progress, which will determine the fate of President Assad, and as Moscow recognizes that stabilizing the situation in Syria requires reducing Iranian presence in the country.”
