Japan's Nuclear Dilemma
Theoretically, Japan probably possesses the ability to deploy its own nuclear missiles controlled from Tokyo. Is such a move possible? The nuclear history of the country once known as the "Rising Sun Empire"
Ami Rojkes Dombe
| 15/12/2017
Photo: AP
The missiles that had been launched by North Korea and passed over Japan in the last few months and the threat by the North Korean President, Kim Jong-un, to sink Japan using a nuclear bomb have presented the government in Tokyo with a serious dilemma – a nuclear dilemma: whether to develop their own nuclear weapons that would deter North Korea or continue to rely on the US nuclear umbrella.
The US Nuclear Umbrella
Since the end of World War II, Japan has been demilitarized following the defeat to the USA. As part of the demilitarization agreement, Japan was allowed to develop nuclear energy for the purpose of generating electrical power, but not for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons. Militarily, Japan benefits from a US nuclear umbrella – to the extent that such an umbrella proves to be reliable come judgment day, if and when North Korea decides to use nuclear weapons against Japan.
Japan's Atomic Energy Agency is responsible for the operation of the nuclear energy reactors throughout the country. The Agency made the headlines pursuant to the 2011 tsunami flood when some of the Japanese reactors experienced meltdowns in what developed into one of the worst nuclear disasters since Chernobyl. These reactors made Japan into one of the world's largest stockpiles of plutonium that could be used, among other things, for the manufacture of thousands of nuclear bombs according to some estimates.
Along with its nuclear potential, Japan also possesses cutting-edge capabilities in the field of missile systems. Until WWII, Japan had been a military superpower with a highly-developed military industry – one that was a serious contender to the US industry. Some of the capabilities of that industry were retained and used exclusively for the benefit of Japan's Self-Defense Forces until 2014, when the Government of Japan decided to resurrect the exportation of arms. Missile-related capabilities were retained as well. Japan develops the Epsilon solid-fuel propelled satellite launching vehicle. This missile indicates the existence of scientific capabilities and the ability to manufacture long-range surface-to-surface missiles subject to a government decision.
Theoretically, Japan probably possesses the ability to deploy its own nuclear missiles controlled from Tokyo. Is such a move possible? Well, in view of the threats by North Korea, some Japanese politicians like Shoichi Nakagawa have already called for the development of nuclear weapons as a self-defense measure. "It is logical worldwide, as in a purely military sense, nuclear weapons can neutralize nuclear weapons," said Nakagawa to the Kyodo News website.
There can be no doubt that Japanese WWII veterans who are still alive today will be apprehensive about a scenario where Japan may once again become a military superpower in possession of an offensive nuclear capability. At the same time, Japan's strategic situation in view of North Korea's threats and tests of the past few months, opposite the helplessness of the USA, have generated serious tensions in the Japanese Parliament. An indication of this fact may be found in a statement made by former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba to the Reuters website regarding the question of whether Japan can rely on the US nuclear umbrella.
A Secret Nuclear Program?
If Japan has a secret nuclear program, it was not initiated this last year, but somewhere during WWII. Two years ago, in 2015, Professor Masakatsu Yamazaki of the University of Kyoto presented notebooks containing the design blueprints for a Japanese nuclear bomb. The date on the notebooks was March 1945, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Apparently, Japan had initiated a secret nuclear program as far back as 1941. The development effort was divided between the Army and the Navy. Those notebooks, from the Navy's part of the project, belonged to Professor Bunsaku Arakatsu, who had studied under Albert Einstein in the USA. The project was designated "Project F". According to the same report, the Tokyo Keiki Company of Japan took part in the development of the centrifuges for the project. This company was in the process of developing a centrifuge prototype with the deadline scheduled for four days after the day when Japan surrendered to the USA.
In those days, Japan was more concerned about the supply of uranium than about theoretical knowledge. According to Robert K. Wilcox, author of the book Japan's Secret War: Japan's Race against Time to build its Own Atomic Bomb, the Japanese Navy invested substantial efforts, during WWII, in the collection of uranium in such places as Burma, China and Korea, among others. According to Wilcox, the Japanese were seeking a tie-breaking weapon, just like the Americans and the Nazis were doing.
Along with the program of the Japanese Navy, another program – of the Japanese Army – was led by Japanese scientist Yoshio Nishina, who's regarded as the father of Japan's nuclear project – this was reported by M. Ragheb. According to the same report, in 1940 Nishina was already aware of the Americans' efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, so he approached the Japanese Army regarding this matter. In 1941, the Government of Japan launched another program for the development of a nuclear bomb, designated "Project Ni". Professor Nishina assembled a team of some 15 scientists. The project of the Japanese Navy was even smaller. Both projects – of the Army and the Navy – never matured into an actual bomb, at least according to open sources.
A Japanese Nuclear Test in Korea?
The history of Japan's nuclear power is spiced with quite a few breathtaking thrillers. One of them concerns the a Spanish spy ring that gained access into Project Manhattan and the smuggling of enriched uranium to Japan, and even a super-classified project of the Japanese Navy codenamed Ennuzetto, which consisted of a plan to drop a nuclear bomb on the USA. This was reported by the blog "Naziabomb".
Another story concerns a North Korean chemical engineer, Otogoro Natsume, who helped the Japanese develop a nuclear bomb (the irony!). According to Wilcox, the Japanese had even managed to carry out a nuclear test during the final days of WWII, in Korean territory, at the Konan Industrial Complex.
The Japanese nuclear test theory was even the subject of an academic research project dated 2006 by Morris Fraser Low. He claims that Japan had managed to carry out a nuclear weapon test prior to the end of WWII. Some of the reports concerning the Konan facility even claim that the Soviets had cooperated with the Japanese in the field of nuclear research.
A Nuclear Awakening?
One should bear in mind the fact that Japan is reluctant to publicize its nuclear history, and it is likely that much of the documentation regarding those projects was destroyed (or hidden) after WWII. When the US forces occupied Japan, they took possession of all of the documents they could find regarding those projects.
In view of Japan's nuclear history, the know-how gained in the establishment and operation of electrical power generating nuclear reactors over the years and Japan's capabilities in the field of missile systems, one of the questions currently being asked in intelligence circles worldwide is whether Japan already has a nuclear bomb. Has the country that signed an agreement to the effect of not engaging in the development of nuclear weapons more than forty years ago – secretly developed a military nuclear program? Is it possible that Japan's quest for a nuclear bomb, which had begun during WWII, has never really stopped?
"Japan already possesses the technical capability (to produce a bomb) and has possessed it since 1980," said a US government source to ABC News in 2014. According to the same source, Japan will require about six months from the moment a decision is made to the moment an operational nuclear bomb may be deployed – provided it has not already done so. One of the events on the agenda for 2018 is the reopening of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant, intended to separate plutonium into nuclear fuel or weapons-grade fissile material. This plant has been undergoing renovations over the last few years, since it was flooded by rains.
"Japan is planning to open a massive spent reactor fuel reprocessing plant at Rokkasho in the fall of 2018. It is designed to produce 8,000 kilograms of weapons-usable plutonium, enough to make more than 1,000 nuclear weapons a year," reported the foreignpolicy.com website. The public opening of this plant could reignite concerns that already exist in China regarding a Japanese nuclear program, and also cause concern in South Korea, which does not possess a nuclear capability. According to the report, China has already requisitioned from France an additional reprocessing plant that should become operational by 2030. Both Chinese reprocessing plants will provide China with a reprocessing capacity similar to that of Japan.
So what happens when the Koreans, both Northern and Southern, become aware of the possible presence of nuclear arms in Japan? They are reminded of the period between 1910 and 1945, when they were under Tokyo's rule. And who pulled the Japanese out of Korea? You guessed right – the Americans, at the end of WWII. There can be no doubt that if Kim Jong-un manages to awaken Japan from the military coma it had entered about seventy years ago, the Koreans and the Chinese will have to ask themselves – who will prevent the Japanese Empire from rising up again, this time with a nuclear arsenal?
Theoretically, Japan probably possesses the ability to deploy its own nuclear missiles controlled from Tokyo. Is such a move possible? The nuclear history of the country once known as the "Rising Sun Empire"
Photo: AP
The missiles that had been launched by North Korea and passed over Japan in the last few months and the threat by the North Korean President, Kim Jong-un, to sink Japan using a nuclear bomb have presented the government in Tokyo with a serious dilemma – a nuclear dilemma: whether to develop their own nuclear weapons that would deter North Korea or continue to rely on the US nuclear umbrella.
The US Nuclear Umbrella
Since the end of World War II, Japan has been demilitarized following the defeat to the USA. As part of the demilitarization agreement, Japan was allowed to develop nuclear energy for the purpose of generating electrical power, but not for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons. Militarily, Japan benefits from a US nuclear umbrella – to the extent that such an umbrella proves to be reliable come judgment day, if and when North Korea decides to use nuclear weapons against Japan.
Japan's Atomic Energy Agency is responsible for the operation of the nuclear energy reactors throughout the country. The Agency made the headlines pursuant to the 2011 tsunami flood when some of the Japanese reactors experienced meltdowns in what developed into one of the worst nuclear disasters since Chernobyl. These reactors made Japan into one of the world's largest stockpiles of plutonium that could be used, among other things, for the manufacture of thousands of nuclear bombs according to some estimates.
Along with its nuclear potential, Japan also possesses cutting-edge capabilities in the field of missile systems. Until WWII, Japan had been a military superpower with a highly-developed military industry – one that was a serious contender to the US industry. Some of the capabilities of that industry were retained and used exclusively for the benefit of Japan's Self-Defense Forces until 2014, when the Government of Japan decided to resurrect the exportation of arms. Missile-related capabilities were retained as well. Japan develops the Epsilon solid-fuel propelled satellite launching vehicle. This missile indicates the existence of scientific capabilities and the ability to manufacture long-range surface-to-surface missiles subject to a government decision.
Theoretically, Japan probably possesses the ability to deploy its own nuclear missiles controlled from Tokyo. Is such a move possible? Well, in view of the threats by North Korea, some Japanese politicians like Shoichi Nakagawa have already called for the development of nuclear weapons as a self-defense measure. "It is logical worldwide, as in a purely military sense, nuclear weapons can neutralize nuclear weapons," said Nakagawa to the Kyodo News website.
There can be no doubt that Japanese WWII veterans who are still alive today will be apprehensive about a scenario where Japan may once again become a military superpower in possession of an offensive nuclear capability. At the same time, Japan's strategic situation in view of North Korea's threats and tests of the past few months, opposite the helplessness of the USA, have generated serious tensions in the Japanese Parliament. An indication of this fact may be found in a statement made by former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba to the Reuters website regarding the question of whether Japan can rely on the US nuclear umbrella.
A Secret Nuclear Program?
If Japan has a secret nuclear program, it was not initiated this last year, but somewhere during WWII. Two years ago, in 2015, Professor Masakatsu Yamazaki of the University of Kyoto presented notebooks containing the design blueprints for a Japanese nuclear bomb. The date on the notebooks was March 1945, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Apparently, Japan had initiated a secret nuclear program as far back as 1941. The development effort was divided between the Army and the Navy. Those notebooks, from the Navy's part of the project, belonged to Professor Bunsaku Arakatsu, who had studied under Albert Einstein in the USA. The project was designated "Project F". According to the same report, the Tokyo Keiki Company of Japan took part in the development of the centrifuges for the project. This company was in the process of developing a centrifuge prototype with the deadline scheduled for four days after the day when Japan surrendered to the USA.
In those days, Japan was more concerned about the supply of uranium than about theoretical knowledge. According to Robert K. Wilcox, author of the book Japan's Secret War: Japan's Race against Time to build its Own Atomic Bomb, the Japanese Navy invested substantial efforts, during WWII, in the collection of uranium in such places as Burma, China and Korea, among others. According to Wilcox, the Japanese were seeking a tie-breaking weapon, just like the Americans and the Nazis were doing.
Along with the program of the Japanese Navy, another program – of the Japanese Army – was led by Japanese scientist Yoshio Nishina, who's regarded as the father of Japan's nuclear project – this was reported by M. Ragheb. According to the same report, in 1940 Nishina was already aware of the Americans' efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, so he approached the Japanese Army regarding this matter. In 1941, the Government of Japan launched another program for the development of a nuclear bomb, designated "Project Ni". Professor Nishina assembled a team of some 15 scientists. The project of the Japanese Navy was even smaller. Both projects – of the Army and the Navy – never matured into an actual bomb, at least according to open sources.
A Japanese Nuclear Test in Korea?
The history of Japan's nuclear power is spiced with quite a few breathtaking thrillers. One of them concerns the a Spanish spy ring that gained access into Project Manhattan and the smuggling of enriched uranium to Japan, and even a super-classified project of the Japanese Navy codenamed Ennuzetto, which consisted of a plan to drop a nuclear bomb on the USA. This was reported by the blog "Naziabomb".
Another story concerns a North Korean chemical engineer, Otogoro Natsume, who helped the Japanese develop a nuclear bomb (the irony!). According to Wilcox, the Japanese had even managed to carry out a nuclear test during the final days of WWII, in Korean territory, at the Konan Industrial Complex.
The Japanese nuclear test theory was even the subject of an academic research project dated 2006 by Morris Fraser Low. He claims that Japan had managed to carry out a nuclear weapon test prior to the end of WWII. Some of the reports concerning the Konan facility even claim that the Soviets had cooperated with the Japanese in the field of nuclear research.
A Nuclear Awakening?
One should bear in mind the fact that Japan is reluctant to publicize its nuclear history, and it is likely that much of the documentation regarding those projects was destroyed (or hidden) after WWII. When the US forces occupied Japan, they took possession of all of the documents they could find regarding those projects.
In view of Japan's nuclear history, the know-how gained in the establishment and operation of electrical power generating nuclear reactors over the years and Japan's capabilities in the field of missile systems, one of the questions currently being asked in intelligence circles worldwide is whether Japan already has a nuclear bomb. Has the country that signed an agreement to the effect of not engaging in the development of nuclear weapons more than forty years ago – secretly developed a military nuclear program? Is it possible that Japan's quest for a nuclear bomb, which had begun during WWII, has never really stopped?
"Japan already possesses the technical capability (to produce a bomb) and has possessed it since 1980," said a US government source to ABC News in 2014. According to the same source, Japan will require about six months from the moment a decision is made to the moment an operational nuclear bomb may be deployed – provided it has not already done so. One of the events on the agenda for 2018 is the reopening of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant, intended to separate plutonium into nuclear fuel or weapons-grade fissile material. This plant has been undergoing renovations over the last few years, since it was flooded by rains.
"Japan is planning to open a massive spent reactor fuel reprocessing plant at Rokkasho in the fall of 2018. It is designed to produce 8,000 kilograms of weapons-usable plutonium, enough to make more than 1,000 nuclear weapons a year," reported the foreignpolicy.com website. The public opening of this plant could reignite concerns that already exist in China regarding a Japanese nuclear program, and also cause concern in South Korea, which does not possess a nuclear capability. According to the report, China has already requisitioned from France an additional reprocessing plant that should become operational by 2030. Both Chinese reprocessing plants will provide China with a reprocessing capacity similar to that of Japan.
So what happens when the Koreans, both Northern and Southern, become aware of the possible presence of nuclear arms in Japan? They are reminded of the period between 1910 and 1945, when they were under Tokyo's rule. And who pulled the Japanese out of Korea? You guessed right – the Americans, at the end of WWII. There can be no doubt that if Kim Jong-un manages to awaken Japan from the military coma it had entered about seventy years ago, the Koreans and the Chinese will have to ask themselves – who will prevent the Japanese Empire from rising up again, this time with a nuclear arsenal?
