Can Israel Change the New Reality in Syria?
Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Russia earlier this week was designed as an attempt to counter the growing Iranian threat to Israel by utilizing Putin's clout in the region. Amir Rapaport's weekly column goes behind the scenes of the intriguing meeting between the two leaders
Amir Rapaport
| 25/08/2017
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55399
It happened during the days of Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister: Olmert, who wanted to prevent the selling of the S-300 advanced air-defense system to Iran, heard a surprising statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin at an intimate meeting: "I am committed to millions of Russians who immigrated to Israel since the 1990s. They are my citizens, too."
Whether or not Putin had meant to uphold that commitment, Israeli officials who attended numerous intimate meetings with Putin over the years are convinced that he has warm feelings for Israel, certainly more than the affinity he feels toward Iranian leaders. At the peak of his displays of affection for Israel, Putin spent many hours sitting with Netanyahu at the Bolshoi Theater in the heart of Moscow, in an evening celebrating the 25th anniversary of the renewal of Russian-Israeli relations.
This warm attitude may be the reason for Israeli prime ministers to 'pop over' and visit Putin again and again. In the past, Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert followed this trend. Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Putin's residence in Sochi, on the Black Sea, accompanied by Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen and the newly-appointed Head of the National Security Council, Meir Ben-Shabbat.
Sentiments aside, national interests are an entirely different matter. This week's visit was a significant case where Israel tries to make the most of the new situation that has emerged in Syria, first and foremost pursuant to the recent agreement between Russia and the USA. If truth is to be told, both Russia and the USA did not really consider Israel while they were consolidating this agreement. On the ground, Iran had already established a de facto territorial continuity between Tehran and Lebanon. In fact, a truck loaded with arms can travel directly from Iran to Hezbollah's storage depots.
Iran Instead of Hezbollah
Netanyahu himself pointed in Russia to the reason for the substantial change in the situation: "Iran is spreading in the Middle East into any area vacated by the Islamic State." In other words, it may be stated that over the last few years Iran, Russia and the USA have cooperated in a war against the Islamic State organization, but in the last few weeks the disintegration of ISIS has been accelerated – as has the expansion of Iran, not just on the other side of Israel's northern border – but in more remote areas, like Yemen, as well.
Iran, Russia and the USA are the dominant factors in the consolidation of the new reality in the territories of northern Iraq and Syria. Israel plays a secondary role alongside such other players as Turkey and Jordan, and – naturally – the regime of Bashar al-Assad, all of whom have a huge stake in the agreement being consolidated.
In this context, some background information: the civil war in Syria started tilting toward an outcome favorable to Bashar al-Assad the moment the Russian Army had been deployed on Syrian soil and the Russian aircraft started bombing, without being subjected to the "collateral damage" restrictions imposed, for example, on the operations of the Israeli Air Force.
When the Russian Army entered Syria, Netanyahu rushed to Moscow accompanied by the IDF Chief of Staff and the Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate. Following that visit, the armed forces of the two states consolidated a real-time coordination mechanism that enables the two aerial forces to operate, despite the fact that the Russian forces eliminated the total air superiority the IAF had enjoyed for decades. With the exception of the firing of a Russian-made surface-to-air missile at an IAF aircraft (by a SAM battery operated by Syrian forces), the intensive activity of the various aerial forces within a relatively small airspace has been running without incident. Apparently, Russia also enabled Israel to strike arms shipments to Hezbollah, in numerous cases, by turning a blind eye (Israel has officially assumed responsibility for those strikes only recently).
Last April, the USA attacked targets in Syrian territory using cruise missiles, following the employment of chemical warfare agents by Assad's forces, but the truth is that President Trump assigned the fate of Syria to Russia, through an agreement the USA and Russia started consolidating in a meeting held a few months ago in Hamburg, Germany.
Over the last few months, Israel has been making a huge diplomatic effort, focusing on Washington, which included Marathon talks between military officials of both countries, in an attempt to prevent the establishment of the territorial continuity between Iran and Lebanon. Israeli intelligence presented countless images and analyses to clarify the severity of the threat faced by Israel owing to the nearly free transfer of arms of strategic significance from Iran to Lebanon, but the effect of the Israeli effort turned out to be very limited.
When it turned out that the attempt to prevent the territorial continuity is nearly hopeless, countries like Israel and Jordan attempted to settle for secondary objectives – like keeping the Iranian forces at a distance of 40 kilometers, at least, from their borders.
Eventually, Russia sold the S-300 batteries to Iran, as early as following the signature of the nuclear agreement between the superpowers and Iran, which came into effect in July 2015. This air-defense system is considered as possessing strategic capabilities, although the Russians did not offer the Iranians their most advanced version of the S-300. Even so, this air-defense system can still engage enemy aircraft at ranges of 150 kilometers – a serious challenge for any air force, including the Israeli Air Force.
Israel is still keenly interested in limiting the technological capabilities of the Iranian air-defense batteries, by convincing Russia not to supply the most advanced versions to Iran, and there are countless other interests to discuss with this important country.
On the other hand, the selling of advanced weapon systems to Iran and the numerous interests Russia and Iran share notwithstanding, there are evidently quite a few controversies between these two countries.
Israel has apparently despaired of the attempt to improve the situation on the other side of the northern border by exerting pressure on the Trump administration (which considers the agreement with Russia regarding the future of Syria as a diplomatic achievement), so it is making a last attempt to influence the new reality in the north – through the Russians. The visit by Netanyahu, Cohen and Ben-Shabbat earlier this week should be viewed against this background.
Apparently, the most interesting issues addressed during this meeting were not stated by Putin and Netanyahu in front of the cameras. Instead, they were discussed by the specialists of both sides in undisclosed talks.
Before boarding his aircraft on the way from Sochi back to Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu made a veiled threat to the effect that Israel would be compelled to act in order to prevent the consolidation of Iran (along with Hezbollah) in Syria. This is a futile threat – a bluff. Israel has no real cards with which it can actually influence the situation and it largely depends on the will (hopefully the goodwill) of the real ruler of the territory on the other side of our northern border – Vladimir Putin.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Russia earlier this week was designed as an attempt to counter the growing Iranian threat to Israel by utilizing Putin's clout in the region. Amir Rapaport's weekly column goes behind the scenes of the intriguing meeting between the two leaders
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55399
It happened during the days of Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister: Olmert, who wanted to prevent the selling of the S-300 advanced air-defense system to Iran, heard a surprising statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin at an intimate meeting: "I am committed to millions of Russians who immigrated to Israel since the 1990s. They are my citizens, too."
Whether or not Putin had meant to uphold that commitment, Israeli officials who attended numerous intimate meetings with Putin over the years are convinced that he has warm feelings for Israel, certainly more than the affinity he feels toward Iranian leaders. At the peak of his displays of affection for Israel, Putin spent many hours sitting with Netanyahu at the Bolshoi Theater in the heart of Moscow, in an evening celebrating the 25th anniversary of the renewal of Russian-Israeli relations.
This warm attitude may be the reason for Israeli prime ministers to 'pop over' and visit Putin again and again. In the past, Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert followed this trend. Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Putin's residence in Sochi, on the Black Sea, accompanied by Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen and the newly-appointed Head of the National Security Council, Meir Ben-Shabbat.
Sentiments aside, national interests are an entirely different matter. This week's visit was a significant case where Israel tries to make the most of the new situation that has emerged in Syria, first and foremost pursuant to the recent agreement between Russia and the USA. If truth is to be told, both Russia and the USA did not really consider Israel while they were consolidating this agreement. On the ground, Iran had already established a de facto territorial continuity between Tehran and Lebanon. In fact, a truck loaded with arms can travel directly from Iran to Hezbollah's storage depots.
Iran Instead of Hezbollah
Netanyahu himself pointed in Russia to the reason for the substantial change in the situation: "Iran is spreading in the Middle East into any area vacated by the Islamic State." In other words, it may be stated that over the last few years Iran, Russia and the USA have cooperated in a war against the Islamic State organization, but in the last few weeks the disintegration of ISIS has been accelerated – as has the expansion of Iran, not just on the other side of Israel's northern border – but in more remote areas, like Yemen, as well.
Iran, Russia and the USA are the dominant factors in the consolidation of the new reality in the territories of northern Iraq and Syria. Israel plays a secondary role alongside such other players as Turkey and Jordan, and – naturally – the regime of Bashar al-Assad, all of whom have a huge stake in the agreement being consolidated.
In this context, some background information: the civil war in Syria started tilting toward an outcome favorable to Bashar al-Assad the moment the Russian Army had been deployed on Syrian soil and the Russian aircraft started bombing, without being subjected to the "collateral damage" restrictions imposed, for example, on the operations of the Israeli Air Force.
When the Russian Army entered Syria, Netanyahu rushed to Moscow accompanied by the IDF Chief of Staff and the Head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate. Following that visit, the armed forces of the two states consolidated a real-time coordination mechanism that enables the two aerial forces to operate, despite the fact that the Russian forces eliminated the total air superiority the IAF had enjoyed for decades. With the exception of the firing of a Russian-made surface-to-air missile at an IAF aircraft (by a SAM battery operated by Syrian forces), the intensive activity of the various aerial forces within a relatively small airspace has been running without incident. Apparently, Russia also enabled Israel to strike arms shipments to Hezbollah, in numerous cases, by turning a blind eye (Israel has officially assumed responsibility for those strikes only recently).
Last April, the USA attacked targets in Syrian territory using cruise missiles, following the employment of chemical warfare agents by Assad's forces, but the truth is that President Trump assigned the fate of Syria to Russia, through an agreement the USA and Russia started consolidating in a meeting held a few months ago in Hamburg, Germany.
Over the last few months, Israel has been making a huge diplomatic effort, focusing on Washington, which included Marathon talks between military officials of both countries, in an attempt to prevent the establishment of the territorial continuity between Iran and Lebanon. Israeli intelligence presented countless images and analyses to clarify the severity of the threat faced by Israel owing to the nearly free transfer of arms of strategic significance from Iran to Lebanon, but the effect of the Israeli effort turned out to be very limited.
When it turned out that the attempt to prevent the territorial continuity is nearly hopeless, countries like Israel and Jordan attempted to settle for secondary objectives – like keeping the Iranian forces at a distance of 40 kilometers, at least, from their borders.
Eventually, Russia sold the S-300 batteries to Iran, as early as following the signature of the nuclear agreement between the superpowers and Iran, which came into effect in July 2015. This air-defense system is considered as possessing strategic capabilities, although the Russians did not offer the Iranians their most advanced version of the S-300. Even so, this air-defense system can still engage enemy aircraft at ranges of 150 kilometers – a serious challenge for any air force, including the Israeli Air Force.
Israel is still keenly interested in limiting the technological capabilities of the Iranian air-defense batteries, by convincing Russia not to supply the most advanced versions to Iran, and there are countless other interests to discuss with this important country.
On the other hand, the selling of advanced weapon systems to Iran and the numerous interests Russia and Iran share notwithstanding, there are evidently quite a few controversies between these two countries.
Israel has apparently despaired of the attempt to improve the situation on the other side of the northern border by exerting pressure on the Trump administration (which considers the agreement with Russia regarding the future of Syria as a diplomatic achievement), so it is making a last attempt to influence the new reality in the north – through the Russians. The visit by Netanyahu, Cohen and Ben-Shabbat earlier this week should be viewed against this background.
Apparently, the most interesting issues addressed during this meeting were not stated by Putin and Netanyahu in front of the cameras. Instead, they were discussed by the specialists of both sides in undisclosed talks.
Before boarding his aircraft on the way from Sochi back to Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu made a veiled threat to the effect that Israel would be compelled to act in order to prevent the consolidation of Iran (along with Hezbollah) in Syria. This is a futile threat – a bluff. Israel has no real cards with which it can actually influence the situation and it largely depends on the will (hopefully the goodwill) of the real ruler of the territory on the other side of our northern border – Vladimir Putin.
