The Temple Mount Crisis: Is the Worst Still to Come?
Was it really impossible to predict the response throughout the Arab world to the deployment of the metal detector portals on the Temple Mount? In his weekly column, Amir Rapaport discusses the Temple Mount riots, the political crisis with Jordan, and the progress made by the Israeli intelligence agencies in dealing with "individual terrorists"
Amir Rapaport
| 28/07/2017
Hamas officers carry a model of the Al-Aqsa Mosque while marching during a parade against Israeli arrangements in the contested Jerusalem shrine (Photo: AP)
Is it not over yet? The decision to remove the metal detector portals (known locally as "Magnometers") from Temple Mount has not led to an end to the severe tension that still prevails in anticipation of the Muslim prayers on Friday, and even after the announcement of the Mufti in Jerusalem of returning to prayers on the Temple Mount.
Too many parties had a vested interest in leveraging the recent Israeli capitulation and set the ground on fire. The gunpowder had already been spread in massive amounts on the ground, and lighters abound, but it is impossible to say whether the recent incidents were merely a few individual bonfires – which would be the best case scenario – or whether the future holds a massive fire, according to the nightmare scenario. Is the peak of the current surge of violence already behind us, or was this week a mere "tasting" of the menu that can be expected for this summer?
Hoping that this summer does not end with a commission of inquiry charged with investigating the issue of "Who gave the order" (to deploy the metal detector portals), we can illuminate a few aspects of the process that started with the murder of two Israeli Border Guard troopers in Jerusalem, and continued with violent incidents throughout the Judea and Samaria district and Jerusalem, and – of course – the two severe incidents in Halamish and in Jordan.
1. The Nightmare Scenario: A religious war of which the Temple Mount is the focal point is the nightmare scenario of the Israeli defense establishment. The organized Arab rumor-circulating effort regarding Israel's alleged intention to change the status quo on the Temple Mount is a fairly ancient phenomenon which has, over the years, led to quite a few serious developments (from the terrorist attacks of 1929 to the "Western Wall Tunnel" events of 1996 and beyond). The sensitivity is a well-known fact, so the decision to deploy the metal detector portals appears, in retrospect, as a mistaken decision that should have been made subject to more careful consideration. Was it possible to predict the recent developments? That is a question to be pondered by a commission of inquiry which, hopefully, will never be appointed (if the current surge of violence subsides quickly).
2. Between the Temple Mount and the Marmara Incident: Although the events of the last few days are reminiscent of the stormy week of the "Western Wall Tunnel" events, they are particularly similar to the Marmara Flotilla incident of May 2010, at least as far as the decision-making aspect is concerned. About seven years ago, the National Security Council was at a temporary peak of its power, but the decision to resolve the flotilla problem first and foremost through the use of force was made without considering broad political and diplomatic aspects. To the same extent, the decision to deploy metal detector portals on the Temple Mount ignored the broad considerations (at least in hindsight which, as they say, is always 20/20).
3. Between Roni and Nadav: It is interesting to note the fact that two of the prominent figures in this affair, Israel Police Commissioner Roni Alsheikh and ISA Chief Nadav Argaman know one another very well as they had served together. In fact, Argaman was appointed as Head of the ISA mainly because Alsheikh, who had been the nominee for that position, accepted the plea of the Prime Minister and the Minister for Public Security to be appointed as Police Commissioner. It may be assumed that Alsheikh's current relations with his superiors are not the best against the background of the recent investigations involving people within the immediate circle surrounding the Prime Minister, but there are no substantial differences of opinion between him and Argaman. One cannot ignore the fact that the decision to deploy the metal detector portals was made against the background of the shocking images of the murder of the two Border Guard troopers, and according to a basic instinct.
4. The Mission to Jordan: When Nadav Argaman went to Jordan as the envoy of the Prime Minister, in order to resolve the crisis following the shooting incident at the Israeli Embassy, the metal detector portals were already the major problem – rather than any solution for the situation on the Temple Mount. When the shooting incident was reported, it was obviously an incident possessing significant diplomatic implications. Israeli censorship did its best to delay the publication of the incident in Israel, even more than 12 hours after details of the incident had already been reported by the media abroad. In this case, there is no doubt that the problem (extricating the Israeli security officer who had shot the Jordanians) was, first and foremost, the solution that enabled the removal of the metal detector portals with a plausible excuse (the need to return the security officer and the Jordanians' demand). The metal detector portals would have been removed from the Temple Mount anyway, sooner or later, as everyone within the Israeli defense establishment knew very well even prior to the incident in Jordan.
The way the Jordanians and the Egyptians conducted themselves in the last few days (contrary to the belligerence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) demonstrated, after all has been said and done, the strength of the alliance with the leaders of the "moderate" Arab countries.
5. The Weakness of the Israeli Cabinet: The events of the last few days provided yet another evidence (the number of previous proofs can no longer be counted) of the weakness of the National Security Cabinet. The cabinet is made up of mediocre or less defense/security figures, whom the Prime Minister does not consider anyway, and cabinet meetings are conducted like a ritual of multiple speeches delivered for the record, for the benefit of future commissions of inquiry, or for the purpose of leaking statements to the media (with cabinet members competing over the demonstration of the most hawkish defense/security positions). Most of the cabinet meetings are a waste of time, as the Prime Minister will pass any resolution he wants anyway – be it a decision to deploy metal detector portals or a decision to remove said portals (only the explanations and excuses change, as the case may be).
6. Terrorist Attack Alerts: One of the questions that need to be asked is why the ISA had no concrete alerts regarding the severe terrorist attacks on the Temple Mount and in Halamish. This is particularly acute with regard to the terrorist attack in Halamish, where the terrorist had posted a detailed message ninety minutes before going out to stage his intended suicide attack (which he survived). Well, over the last eighteen months Israel made considerable progress in dealing with terrorist attacks by individuals influenced by prevailing public moods (contrary to organized terrorist cells that have a chain of command and communications to a structured command center – which are easier to detect and identify).
A major and unique contribution toward reducing the intensity of the surge of terrorism that had begun in October 2015 was made by the systems that collect information from media such as Facebook and other social media. Israel's intelligence agencies developed a method for spotting individuals likely to stage terrorist attacks according to their social media profiles. In many cases, the ISA and Israel Police made preventive arrests. In some cases, parents received telephone calls ordering them to keep an eye on their children, along with a threat that if those children did stage terrorist attacks, the family would pay dearly (for example – their house would be demolished). In hundreds of cases, this method proved to be highly effective.
Yet, various experts, including Omri Timianker, founder of the Cobwebs Technologies Company that develops intelligence systems for collecting information from open sources like the social media for security agencies worldwide, believe that quite a few years will pass before artificial intelligence systems are incorporated in this effort. These systems will make it possible to spot a potential attacker even within ninety minutes, and apprehend him or her in time.
7. Hebron & the North: All of these 'headaches' took place – as far as the Israeli defense establishment is concerned – at the same time as the breakout of the new situation at the house near the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, against the background of the tension vis-à-vis Hezbollah in the north, where the project of erecting a new border fence system has just begun (this must have been the reason for the visit by the Prime Minister and Minister of Defense to the northern sector last Tuesday).
Was it really impossible to predict the response throughout the Arab world to the deployment of the metal detector portals on the Temple Mount? In his weekly column, Amir Rapaport discusses the Temple Mount riots, the political crisis with Jordan, and the progress made by the Israeli intelligence agencies in dealing with "individual terrorists"
Hamas officers carry a model of the Al-Aqsa Mosque while marching during a parade against Israeli arrangements in the contested Jerusalem shrine (Photo: AP)
Is it not over yet? The decision to remove the metal detector portals (known locally as "Magnometers") from Temple Mount has not led to an end to the severe tension that still prevails in anticipation of the Muslim prayers on Friday, and even after the announcement of the Mufti in Jerusalem of returning to prayers on the Temple Mount.
Too many parties had a vested interest in leveraging the recent Israeli capitulation and set the ground on fire. The gunpowder had already been spread in massive amounts on the ground, and lighters abound, but it is impossible to say whether the recent incidents were merely a few individual bonfires – which would be the best case scenario – or whether the future holds a massive fire, according to the nightmare scenario. Is the peak of the current surge of violence already behind us, or was this week a mere "tasting" of the menu that can be expected for this summer?
Hoping that this summer does not end with a commission of inquiry charged with investigating the issue of "Who gave the order" (to deploy the metal detector portals), we can illuminate a few aspects of the process that started with the murder of two Israeli Border Guard troopers in Jerusalem, and continued with violent incidents throughout the Judea and Samaria district and Jerusalem, and – of course – the two severe incidents in Halamish and in Jordan.
1. The Nightmare Scenario: A religious war of which the Temple Mount is the focal point is the nightmare scenario of the Israeli defense establishment. The organized Arab rumor-circulating effort regarding Israel's alleged intention to change the status quo on the Temple Mount is a fairly ancient phenomenon which has, over the years, led to quite a few serious developments (from the terrorist attacks of 1929 to the "Western Wall Tunnel" events of 1996 and beyond). The sensitivity is a well-known fact, so the decision to deploy the metal detector portals appears, in retrospect, as a mistaken decision that should have been made subject to more careful consideration. Was it possible to predict the recent developments? That is a question to be pondered by a commission of inquiry which, hopefully, will never be appointed (if the current surge of violence subsides quickly).
2. Between the Temple Mount and the Marmara Incident: Although the events of the last few days are reminiscent of the stormy week of the "Western Wall Tunnel" events, they are particularly similar to the Marmara Flotilla incident of May 2010, at least as far as the decision-making aspect is concerned. About seven years ago, the National Security Council was at a temporary peak of its power, but the decision to resolve the flotilla problem first and foremost through the use of force was made without considering broad political and diplomatic aspects. To the same extent, the decision to deploy metal detector portals on the Temple Mount ignored the broad considerations (at least in hindsight which, as they say, is always 20/20).
3. Between Roni and Nadav: It is interesting to note the fact that two of the prominent figures in this affair, Israel Police Commissioner Roni Alsheikh and ISA Chief Nadav Argaman know one another very well as they had served together. In fact, Argaman was appointed as Head of the ISA mainly because Alsheikh, who had been the nominee for that position, accepted the plea of the Prime Minister and the Minister for Public Security to be appointed as Police Commissioner. It may be assumed that Alsheikh's current relations with his superiors are not the best against the background of the recent investigations involving people within the immediate circle surrounding the Prime Minister, but there are no substantial differences of opinion between him and Argaman. One cannot ignore the fact that the decision to deploy the metal detector portals was made against the background of the shocking images of the murder of the two Border Guard troopers, and according to a basic instinct.
4. The Mission to Jordan: When Nadav Argaman went to Jordan as the envoy of the Prime Minister, in order to resolve the crisis following the shooting incident at the Israeli Embassy, the metal detector portals were already the major problem – rather than any solution for the situation on the Temple Mount. When the shooting incident was reported, it was obviously an incident possessing significant diplomatic implications. Israeli censorship did its best to delay the publication of the incident in Israel, even more than 12 hours after details of the incident had already been reported by the media abroad. In this case, there is no doubt that the problem (extricating the Israeli security officer who had shot the Jordanians) was, first and foremost, the solution that enabled the removal of the metal detector portals with a plausible excuse (the need to return the security officer and the Jordanians' demand). The metal detector portals would have been removed from the Temple Mount anyway, sooner or later, as everyone within the Israeli defense establishment knew very well even prior to the incident in Jordan.
The way the Jordanians and the Egyptians conducted themselves in the last few days (contrary to the belligerence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) demonstrated, after all has been said and done, the strength of the alliance with the leaders of the "moderate" Arab countries.
5. The Weakness of the Israeli Cabinet: The events of the last few days provided yet another evidence (the number of previous proofs can no longer be counted) of the weakness of the National Security Cabinet. The cabinet is made up of mediocre or less defense/security figures, whom the Prime Minister does not consider anyway, and cabinet meetings are conducted like a ritual of multiple speeches delivered for the record, for the benefit of future commissions of inquiry, or for the purpose of leaking statements to the media (with cabinet members competing over the demonstration of the most hawkish defense/security positions). Most of the cabinet meetings are a waste of time, as the Prime Minister will pass any resolution he wants anyway – be it a decision to deploy metal detector portals or a decision to remove said portals (only the explanations and excuses change, as the case may be).
6. Terrorist Attack Alerts: One of the questions that need to be asked is why the ISA had no concrete alerts regarding the severe terrorist attacks on the Temple Mount and in Halamish. This is particularly acute with regard to the terrorist attack in Halamish, where the terrorist had posted a detailed message ninety minutes before going out to stage his intended suicide attack (which he survived). Well, over the last eighteen months Israel made considerable progress in dealing with terrorist attacks by individuals influenced by prevailing public moods (contrary to organized terrorist cells that have a chain of command and communications to a structured command center – which are easier to detect and identify).
A major and unique contribution toward reducing the intensity of the surge of terrorism that had begun in October 2015 was made by the systems that collect information from media such as Facebook and other social media. Israel's intelligence agencies developed a method for spotting individuals likely to stage terrorist attacks according to their social media profiles. In many cases, the ISA and Israel Police made preventive arrests. In some cases, parents received telephone calls ordering them to keep an eye on their children, along with a threat that if those children did stage terrorist attacks, the family would pay dearly (for example – their house would be demolished). In hundreds of cases, this method proved to be highly effective.
Yet, various experts, including Omri Timianker, founder of the Cobwebs Technologies Company that develops intelligence systems for collecting information from open sources like the social media for security agencies worldwide, believe that quite a few years will pass before artificial intelligence systems are incorporated in this effort. These systems will make it possible to spot a potential attacker even within ninety minutes, and apprehend him or her in time.
7. Hebron & the North: All of these 'headaches' took place – as far as the Israeli defense establishment is concerned – at the same time as the breakout of the new situation at the house near the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, against the background of the tension vis-à-vis Hezbollah in the north, where the project of erecting a new border fence system has just begun (this must have been the reason for the visit by the Prime Minister and Minister of Defense to the northern sector last Tuesday).
