A Massive Arms Race & an Exceptional Opportunity for Peace

In his weekly column, Amir Rapaport considers the historic week in the Middle East and explains how the terrorist attack in Manchester affects Israel

A Massive Arms Race & an Exceptional Opportunity for Peace

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump (Photo: AP)

US President Donald Trump's recent visit to the Middle East embodies a regional paradox: a rapid arms race, taking place alongside an exceptional opportunity for peace.

The origins of the current arms race: the sheer scope of the arms deal between the USA and Saudi Arabia is nothing short of amazing. To illustrate, the phase of the deal concluded thus far, to the effect of US$ 110 billion, is eight times higher than Israel's national defense budget, including all procurement transactions and wages. It is almost 29 times higher than the US annual defense aid to Israel – about US$ 3.8 billion. The primary procurement budget of the IDF, which covers state-of-the-art weapon systems, including fighter aircraft, is based on this aid.

The deal signed between the Americans and the Saudis is a cause for celebration for the US defense industry. In fact, this deal is a direct outcome of the appeasement policy of the previous US president and the nuclear agreement with Iran. The agreement dating back to the Obama period enhanced the threat faced by Iran's closest neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, as it allowed Iran to evolve into a nuclear threshold state and to receive dozens of billions of dollars that it promptly used to buy arms, mainly from Russia.

Looking through a broader perspective, the arms race in the Middle East is a part of a global arming process: defense budgets have increased dramatically over the last decade in areas of tension in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. At the same time, Russia and the USA have renewed the arms race between them to the point where it resembles the USA-USSR arms race during the days of the Cold War, and Europe seeks solutions for the surge of terrorist attacks afflicting its cities, with the most recent attack having taken place earlier this week in Manchester, England.

In Israel, on the other hand, the defense budget has increased at a much lower rate during the same period. But does the arms deal with Saudi Arabia constitute a tangible threat to Israel? Apparently, no. Saudi Arabia's current interests coincide with those of Israel, and the USA is committed, even by law, to maintaining Israel's relative advantage. This is reflected, for example, in the fact that Israel is the only country in this reason allowed to purchase the F-35 future fighters. At some point, however, the quantity, namely – the massive amounts of arms flooding the Persian Gulf, will evolve into a quality that would threaten Israel in the event that the present regimes have collapsed.

So should Israel have taken a public stand against this deal? In fact, this option is not available to Israel. The pro-deal lobby in the USA is so powerful, and the Saudi need for protection is so real and acute, that all such efforts would have been in vain. It is reasonable to assume that the Israeli strategy will be to allow the deal to be concluded, and in exchange, ask the USA for the strategically-significant weapons that have not been supplied to Israel until now. In the past, Israel knew very well how to take advantage of such opportunities. It is safe to assume that this will also be the case opposite the friendly regime currently in power in Washington, as opposed to the Obama regime – which had no qualms about giving the Israeli requests the cold shoulder.

The Opposite of Obama

Another aspect of the recent presidential visit is the fact that the Trump administration is implementing, through its first few steps in the Middle East, the very opposite of the policy of the Obama administration. In his first trip to the Middle East, the previous president had demonstrably avoided Israel, and while in Cairo, he spoke to the masses over the heads of their leaders. Many argue that by doing so, he actually accelerated the upheavals in the Arab world, which led to bloodshed rather than to a spring of hope.

In contrast, with a warm embrace and an unequivocal verbal commitment to Israel's security, President Trump has enhanced Israel's strategic status in the region. The road to Washington, so it seems, once again passes through Jerusalem. President Trump's meeting with the leaders of the Arab countries in Riyadh was impressive in itself and may have contributed to the stability of the region. The president elected while promoting the slogan of "America First" is the one rehabilitating the damaged credibility of the USA in the eyes of the Americans' allies.

The presidential visit has also emphasized the axis between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, which had started shaping up in the days of Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. President Trump's direct flight from Riyadh to Tel-Aviv last Monday is a little piece of history. Was the statement made by Prime Minister Netanyahu at Ben-Gurion Airport, to the effect that he aspires for an Israeli Prime Minister to be able to fly to Riyadh, more than wishful thinking? Time will tell. Meanwhile, the combination of a certain maturation of the Arab peace initiative, the seniority of Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister and Abu Mazen as the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, President Trump's deal-maker's image and the increasing threat of radical Islam has produced background conditions the likes of which have not been encountered for many years, toward a regional or local agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. Is Israel pursuing every possible course of action in order to take advantage of this real or imagined opportunity? Only the minutes, once they have been publicized a few years from now, or an agreement, once it has been signed, will provide the answer to this question.

The Terrorist Attack Economy

The global arms race, reflected through the arms procurement budgets worldwide, which have more than doubled, has not led to an increase in Israeli defense exports – which remained stable at the high mark of about US$ 6 billion per year. Nevertheless, and as distressing as it may be, every terrorist attack taking place anywhere around the globe contributes to Israel's defense exports. Evidently, the terrorist attack in Mumbai, India in 2008 had led to the multi-billion deal between India and IAI, including the acquisition of Barak-8 missiles, which is currently being implemented.

Similarly, the terrorist attacks of the last few years in Europe have increased Israeli defense exports. Even Sweden, which is politically hostile to Israel, is purchasing quite a few weapon systems from Israeli industries. The Swedish interest in Israeli armament has even increased after the vehicle ramming attack in Stockholm about two months ago. Turkey is seeking Israeli technologies pursuant to the numerous terrorist attacks in Turkish territory, as if the two countries are still allies. Even the terrible suicide bombing earlier this week in Manchester, England will, sooner or later, increase British interest in Israeli counterterrorism technologies.