The Battle over IAF's Next Fighter & the Coming War in Gaza
The recent elimination of Mazen Fuqaha has brought the tension opposite Hamas to near boiling point. Meanwhile, the outcome of the battle over the next fighter aircraft of the IAF is about to be decided. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
Amir Rapaport
| 30/03/2017
Several rounds, fired from a silenced handgun last Friday morning in the southern part of the city of Gaza, have brought the tension in the South to near boiling point: as of the moment when the leaders of Hamas blamed Israel of having eliminated the senior activist of their movement, Mazen Fuqaha, and even pledged to avenge his death, the dynamics that may lead to another war have been set in motion.
Now both sides, Israel and Hamas, must do everything they can to avoid sliding down into a new round of fighting, less than three years after Operation Protective Edge. The leaders of Hamas could have left Fuqaha's death as an unsolved mystery (or blame Israel vaguely and indirectly, just as Israel's long arm is being blamed for all kinds of bizarre deaths occurring around the entire region, justly or falsely). But as of the moment Hamas presented their gun in this act of the play, the flare-up might occur very quickly, and this particular gun may not necessarily require three more acts in order to fire.
It is not at all certain that Hamas will do everything to avoid another round of fighting soon. They have taken advantage of the three years of tranquility since Operation Protective Edge for a process of reconstruction and empowerment. The encirclement by Israel and Egypt notwithstanding, Hamas endeavored to develop heavy and short-range rockets and did everything in their power to develop a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, along with long-range rockets. Quite naturally, they reconstructed and expanded their underground tunnel system and prepared some new surprises.
One of the scenarios the Israeli defense establishment had taken into consideration, even before Israel was blamed for Fuqaha's elimination, is that Hamas will seize an opportunity to drag Israel into a new round of fighting even before the construction of the anti-tunnel underground fence (scheduled for the coming summer) has been accelerated. So, in any case, this year summer will arrive very early to the Southern region, and the situation will remain tense at the very least. Israel has her own plans in case of a flare-up, and they are not necessarily similar to the tactics used during Operation Protective Edge.
Aerial Battle
The next battle is already raging, without a single shot having been fired: the major US aircraft manufacturers, Lockheed Martin and Boeing, have embarked on a campaign to convince the IDF to acquire two new squadrons, a total of about 50 platforms, of their respective fighter aircraft.
Evidently, the last two mega-deals were decided in favor of Lockheed Martin: the IAF had acquired 102 F-16I (IAF designation Sufa) fighters at the outset of the previous decade, and committed to acquiring 50 F-35 (IAF designation Adir) stealth fighters in the present decade. The first two Adir fighters arrived in Israel in December 2016, and the next two fighters will land at Nevatim airbase in the South in about a month. The process of bringing the two Adir squadrons to full complement will take years.
The aircraft transaction to be decided in the coming months will account for the primary empowerment acquisition activity of the IAF in the next decade, with a budget amounting to billions of US dollars (out of the US$ 38 billion US Aid promised to Israel between 2017 and 2027).
The major battle began with talks between the representatives of the US aircraft manufacturers and the people of the IAF and the IDF Planning Directorate. Volumes containing detailed offers will be submitted within the next few days.
Lockheed Martin offers the IAF two options: acquisition of two additional squadrons of F-35 fighters of the current model (A), or alternately – acquisition of F-35B fighters, the type used by the US Navy. These fighters cost 30% more than the "standard" A model (the price for a single platform can amount to US$ 120 million, according to some estimates), but they offer the advantage of being able to take off from a short runway, the size of an aircraft carrier deck, even in the middle of the desert. This option could prove relevant in the event that Israel finds itself under a major missile attack, aimed primarily at IAF bases. The people at Lockheed Martin believe that this was the reason for the Israeli Prime Minister's keen interest in this fighter model.
Additionally, the F-35B fighters are stealth fighters (they cannot be picked up by enemy Radar only if they carry a limited amount of ordnance), but their range is regarded as relatively limited without external fuel tanks and the number of munitions they can carry is not substantial. Above all, this aircraft constitutes an intelligence and surveillance platform capable of processing data independently or while linked to a rear-area operations center, and dealing with multiple threats of various types simultaneously.
The contestant of the F-35 fighter is the tried-and-true F-15I fighter (IAF designation Ra'am) in its "Advanced" version, the likes of which have been sold to Qatar recently. The price per platform is more or less similar to that of the "standard" F-35A – about US$ 90 million. Each aircraft has two engines and can carry a massive amount of ordnance. Boeing will offer this fighter to the IAF with engines by General Electric (as opposed to the engines by Pratt and Whitney fitted to the existing F-15I Ra'am fighters), with two additional weapon stations and a computer processing potential only 40% of which would be utilized for present needs (so as to leave a substantial processing potential in reserve for future developments).
What will the IDF decide? There is a reasonable chance that the IDF authorities will prefer a single squadron of F-35 (A or B) fighters along with a single squadron of the new F-15 fighters, but everything remains open for the time being.
Incidentally, some other aerial acquisition mega-deals will be decided in the next few years. The first one involves the replacement helicopter for the veteran CH-53 (IAF designation Yas'ur). Here, too, the contestants are Lockheed Martin that will offer the new Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion helicopter (a modern and improved version of the original CH-53, 30% larger, capable of reaching a speed of 180 knots), and Boeing that will offer their CH-47 Chinook helicopter. The second deal involves the acquisition of new airborne refueling tankers (in this case, Boeing is an almost certain winner, opposite the offer by IAI to convert passenger aircraft to refueling tankers). Finally, a "small" tender (only a few hundreds of millions of US dollars) is already under way, for the acquisition of eight trainer helicopters for the trainer fleet of the IAF flying school.
A Stand-In for the Stand-In
This week, after months of delays and at his own request, the acting Head of the National Security Council, Jacob Nagel, has stepped down. Nagel headed the National Security Council for not less than fifteen months, since the former head, Yossi Cohen, had left. The attempt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to appoint Brig. Gen. Eitan Avriel, one of the "stars" of the German submarine affair, to this position – failed. The fact that the National Security Council does not have a permanent head is indicative, more than anything else, of the significant devaluation in the council's status, despite the fact that Jacob Nadel performed some important assignments as Netanyahu's envoy (among other things, he finalized the defense aid agreement with the USA for the next decade).
Some of Nagel's responsibilities will be reassigned to Orna Mizrachi, a former Lieutenant-Colonel in the IDF Intelligence Directorate and Planning Directorate, but the stand-in for the near future will be the head of the Counterterrorism Bureau, Eitan Ben-David (a former senior ISA officer). Regardless of the appointment, this week Ben-David has issued his bureau's severe travel warnings in anticipation of the Passover holiday, according to which several destinations around the world are going to be extremely dangerous for Israelis.
So, why is the Prime Minister avoiding the appointment of a permanent head for the National Security Council? He may be saving this job for the current commandant of the IAF, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, who will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin soon. It is not at all certain, however, that Eshel wants the job, which was already offered to several former generals, who have turned the offer down.
The recent elimination of Mazen Fuqaha has brought the tension opposite Hamas to near boiling point. Meanwhile, the outcome of the battle over the next fighter aircraft of the IAF is about to be decided. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
Several rounds, fired from a silenced handgun last Friday morning in the southern part of the city of Gaza, have brought the tension in the South to near boiling point: as of the moment when the leaders of Hamas blamed Israel of having eliminated the senior activist of their movement, Mazen Fuqaha, and even pledged to avenge his death, the dynamics that may lead to another war have been set in motion.
Now both sides, Israel and Hamas, must do everything they can to avoid sliding down into a new round of fighting, less than three years after Operation Protective Edge. The leaders of Hamas could have left Fuqaha's death as an unsolved mystery (or blame Israel vaguely and indirectly, just as Israel's long arm is being blamed for all kinds of bizarre deaths occurring around the entire region, justly or falsely). But as of the moment Hamas presented their gun in this act of the play, the flare-up might occur very quickly, and this particular gun may not necessarily require three more acts in order to fire.
It is not at all certain that Hamas will do everything to avoid another round of fighting soon. They have taken advantage of the three years of tranquility since Operation Protective Edge for a process of reconstruction and empowerment. The encirclement by Israel and Egypt notwithstanding, Hamas endeavored to develop heavy and short-range rockets and did everything in their power to develop a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, along with long-range rockets. Quite naturally, they reconstructed and expanded their underground tunnel system and prepared some new surprises.
One of the scenarios the Israeli defense establishment had taken into consideration, even before Israel was blamed for Fuqaha's elimination, is that Hamas will seize an opportunity to drag Israel into a new round of fighting even before the construction of the anti-tunnel underground fence (scheduled for the coming summer) has been accelerated. So, in any case, this year summer will arrive very early to the Southern region, and the situation will remain tense at the very least. Israel has her own plans in case of a flare-up, and they are not necessarily similar to the tactics used during Operation Protective Edge.
Aerial Battle
The next battle is already raging, without a single shot having been fired: the major US aircraft manufacturers, Lockheed Martin and Boeing, have embarked on a campaign to convince the IDF to acquire two new squadrons, a total of about 50 platforms, of their respective fighter aircraft.
Evidently, the last two mega-deals were decided in favor of Lockheed Martin: the IAF had acquired 102 F-16I (IAF designation Sufa) fighters at the outset of the previous decade, and committed to acquiring 50 F-35 (IAF designation Adir) stealth fighters in the present decade. The first two Adir fighters arrived in Israel in December 2016, and the next two fighters will land at Nevatim airbase in the South in about a month. The process of bringing the two Adir squadrons to full complement will take years.
The aircraft transaction to be decided in the coming months will account for the primary empowerment acquisition activity of the IAF in the next decade, with a budget amounting to billions of US dollars (out of the US$ 38 billion US Aid promised to Israel between 2017 and 2027).
The major battle began with talks between the representatives of the US aircraft manufacturers and the people of the IAF and the IDF Planning Directorate. Volumes containing detailed offers will be submitted within the next few days.
Lockheed Martin offers the IAF two options: acquisition of two additional squadrons of F-35 fighters of the current model (A), or alternately – acquisition of F-35B fighters, the type used by the US Navy. These fighters cost 30% more than the "standard" A model (the price for a single platform can amount to US$ 120 million, according to some estimates), but they offer the advantage of being able to take off from a short runway, the size of an aircraft carrier deck, even in the middle of the desert. This option could prove relevant in the event that Israel finds itself under a major missile attack, aimed primarily at IAF bases. The people at Lockheed Martin believe that this was the reason for the Israeli Prime Minister's keen interest in this fighter model.
Additionally, the F-35B fighters are stealth fighters (they cannot be picked up by enemy Radar only if they carry a limited amount of ordnance), but their range is regarded as relatively limited without external fuel tanks and the number of munitions they can carry is not substantial. Above all, this aircraft constitutes an intelligence and surveillance platform capable of processing data independently or while linked to a rear-area operations center, and dealing with multiple threats of various types simultaneously.
The contestant of the F-35 fighter is the tried-and-true F-15I fighter (IAF designation Ra'am) in its "Advanced" version, the likes of which have been sold to Qatar recently. The price per platform is more or less similar to that of the "standard" F-35A – about US$ 90 million. Each aircraft has two engines and can carry a massive amount of ordnance. Boeing will offer this fighter to the IAF with engines by General Electric (as opposed to the engines by Pratt and Whitney fitted to the existing F-15I Ra'am fighters), with two additional weapon stations and a computer processing potential only 40% of which would be utilized for present needs (so as to leave a substantial processing potential in reserve for future developments).
What will the IDF decide? There is a reasonable chance that the IDF authorities will prefer a single squadron of F-35 (A or B) fighters along with a single squadron of the new F-15 fighters, but everything remains open for the time being.
Incidentally, some other aerial acquisition mega-deals will be decided in the next few years. The first one involves the replacement helicopter for the veteran CH-53 (IAF designation Yas'ur). Here, too, the contestants are Lockheed Martin that will offer the new Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion helicopter (a modern and improved version of the original CH-53, 30% larger, capable of reaching a speed of 180 knots), and Boeing that will offer their CH-47 Chinook helicopter. The second deal involves the acquisition of new airborne refueling tankers (in this case, Boeing is an almost certain winner, opposite the offer by IAI to convert passenger aircraft to refueling tankers). Finally, a "small" tender (only a few hundreds of millions of US dollars) is already under way, for the acquisition of eight trainer helicopters for the trainer fleet of the IAF flying school.
A Stand-In for the Stand-In
This week, after months of delays and at his own request, the acting Head of the National Security Council, Jacob Nagel, has stepped down. Nagel headed the National Security Council for not less than fifteen months, since the former head, Yossi Cohen, had left. The attempt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to appoint Brig. Gen. Eitan Avriel, one of the "stars" of the German submarine affair, to this position – failed. The fact that the National Security Council does not have a permanent head is indicative, more than anything else, of the significant devaluation in the council's status, despite the fact that Jacob Nadel performed some important assignments as Netanyahu's envoy (among other things, he finalized the defense aid agreement with the USA for the next decade).
Some of Nagel's responsibilities will be reassigned to Orna Mizrachi, a former Lieutenant-Colonel in the IDF Intelligence Directorate and Planning Directorate, but the stand-in for the near future will be the head of the Counterterrorism Bureau, Eitan Ben-David (a former senior ISA officer). Regardless of the appointment, this week Ben-David has issued his bureau's severe travel warnings in anticipation of the Passover holiday, according to which several destinations around the world are going to be extremely dangerous for Israelis.
So, why is the Prime Minister avoiding the appointment of a permanent head for the National Security Council? He may be saving this job for the current commandant of the IAF, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, who will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin soon. It is not at all certain, however, that Eshel wants the job, which was already offered to several former generals, who have turned the offer down.
