The New Rules of the Game in Syria
The clashing inter-state interests in Syria heat up the northern front and present new challenges for Israel. Meanwhile, another major defense transaction with Germany gets into trouble. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
Amir Rapaport
| 23/03/2017
Photo: AP
The events of the last weekend in the north have amounted to a war over the new rules of the game, after the Russians more or less decided the outcome of the war in favor of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Admittedly, Syria will never again be what it once was, but the Assad regime has stabilized significantly. The party missing altogether from the arena where the new game rules are being decided (probably for years to come) is the USA. This week, in Washington, it seemed that the Americans are wearing themselves down with internal conflicts. The heads of their intelligence agencies spent many hours attending hearings at the House of Representatives. In Syria, on the other hand, they are almost nonexistent.
Apart from the Americans, almost everyone else is intensively involved. The real bosses are the Russians. Assad has been able to lift his head up again – he is not interested in the southern part of the Golan Heights, but among other things, he has consolidated his hold on the Syrian part of Mount Hermon and on the northern part of the Golan Heights.
Israel has two overriding interests: to deny Iran of a permanent foothold in Syria and to prevent the delivery of strategically-significant weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In order to prevent Iranian consolidation in Syria, Israel has been maintaining close contacts with Russia and attacking the arms shipments to Hezbollah (as official sources have admitted this week for the first time).
At the bottom line, the various conflicting interests are clashing. The launching of the missile that might have landed in Israel and was therefore intercepted took place pursuant to an attack against the arms shipments. It was not the first time that a missile was launched at IAF aircraft: as this column revealed, the first time had occurred about five months ago. Back then, the missile launched at the Israeli aircraft did not risk any Israeli settlement.
The situation is complex: the operators of the SAM batteries are Syrian troopers, but the party that had provided the Syrians with the advanced weapon systems and in fact controls these systems are the Russian forces deployed in Syria. Pursuant to the previous missile launch, Israel conveyed furious messages through the aerial coordination mechanism with the Russian forces. Apparently, that did not help. The exchange of messages by all of the parties concerned will continue, and not just through the diplomatic channels, until the new situation in Syria has stabilized.
Incidentally, the tension in the north must not distract us from the preparations in which Hamas is engaged for the next round of fighting.
Eizenkot & the Trappist General Staff
A new commander, Maj. Gen. Yoel Starik, has taken office as commander of the IDF Northern Command against the severe tension in the north. The new general promptly convened the past and present commanders of IDF Northern Command and delivered messages of hard work, without any sophisticated public speeches.
The interesting aspect of Starik's appointment is the fact that during his third year as Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot is about to complete the process of shaping the IDF General Staff in his own image.
To a considerable extent, Starik is an Eizenkot clone: the Chief of Staff grew up in the peripheral area of Israel, in Eilat, while Starik grew up in a similar environment – in Dimona. Eizenkot had risen through the ranks of the Golani Infantry Brigade, while Starik spent his career in the Paratrooper Brigade and subsequently in the Givati Infantry Brigade, serving in every possible field command position. Starik had never served in the Quirya compound (the IDF General Staff center) with the exception of a significant tenure as Head of the IDF Operations Department. He came to know Eizenkot personally while serving as commander of the IDF Galilee Formation with Eizenkot, who at that time was serving as the commander of the IDF Northern Command, as his immediate superior. Starik is not an unusual member of the IDF General Staff of 2017. The generals commanding the IDF Southern and Central commands, Eyal Zamir and Ronnie Numa, are no major orators either.
The German Defense Transaction Fiasco – Chapter 2
Away from media attention, another major defense transaction with Germany is being delayed. Unlike the submarine transaction, this time Israel (more precisely IAI) is the seller rather than the buyer.
The scope of this transaction is not less than US$ 645 million, and the product in question is IAI's giant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Heron, along with an extensive range of state-of-the-art systems these UAVs may be fitted with, made by the various Israeli defense industries.
It is ironic that Germany is currently Israel's best friend on the European continent. The party causing the delay in the UAV transaction is not Germany but the USA. The Americans have been exerting extreme pressures worldwide in an attempt to promote their own defense industries. The General Atomics Corporation (probably with the backing of US government elements) has been leading the opposition against IAI's mega transaction with Germany. General Atomics had offered their Predator UAVs, which lost the competition against IAI's Heron UAVs. The Americans are currently claiming that the tender was flawed, and the courts held the fulfillment of the transaction with Israel until July.
The transaction with IAI remains signed, sealed and valid, but it is feared that by next autumn the Germans might elect a new government that turns out to be less sympathetic toward Israel, and things will continue to deteriorate.
The clashing inter-state interests in Syria heat up the northern front and present new challenges for Israel. Meanwhile, another major defense transaction with Germany gets into trouble. Amir Rapaport's weekly column
The events of the last weekend in the north have amounted to a war over the new rules of the game, after the Russians more or less decided the outcome of the war in favor of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Admittedly, Syria will never again be what it once was, but the Assad regime has stabilized significantly. The party missing altogether from the arena where the new game rules are being decided (probably for years to come) is the USA. This week, in Washington, it seemed that the Americans are wearing themselves down with internal conflicts. The heads of their intelligence agencies spent many hours attending hearings at the House of Representatives. In Syria, on the other hand, they are almost nonexistent.
Apart from the Americans, almost everyone else is intensively involved. The real bosses are the Russians. Assad has been able to lift his head up again – he is not interested in the southern part of the Golan Heights, but among other things, he has consolidated his hold on the Syrian part of Mount Hermon and on the northern part of the Golan Heights.
Israel has two overriding interests: to deny Iran of a permanent foothold in Syria and to prevent the delivery of strategically-significant weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In order to prevent Iranian consolidation in Syria, Israel has been maintaining close contacts with Russia and attacking the arms shipments to Hezbollah (as official sources have admitted this week for the first time).
At the bottom line, the various conflicting interests are clashing. The launching of the missile that might have landed in Israel and was therefore intercepted took place pursuant to an attack against the arms shipments. It was not the first time that a missile was launched at IAF aircraft: as this column revealed, the first time had occurred about five months ago. Back then, the missile launched at the Israeli aircraft did not risk any Israeli settlement.
The situation is complex: the operators of the SAM batteries are Syrian troopers, but the party that had provided the Syrians with the advanced weapon systems and in fact controls these systems are the Russian forces deployed in Syria. Pursuant to the previous missile launch, Israel conveyed furious messages through the aerial coordination mechanism with the Russian forces. Apparently, that did not help. The exchange of messages by all of the parties concerned will continue, and not just through the diplomatic channels, until the new situation in Syria has stabilized.
Incidentally, the tension in the north must not distract us from the preparations in which Hamas is engaged for the next round of fighting.
Eizenkot & the Trappist General Staff
A new commander, Maj. Gen. Yoel Starik, has taken office as commander of the IDF Northern Command against the severe tension in the north. The new general promptly convened the past and present commanders of IDF Northern Command and delivered messages of hard work, without any sophisticated public speeches.
The interesting aspect of Starik's appointment is the fact that during his third year as Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot is about to complete the process of shaping the IDF General Staff in his own image.
To a considerable extent, Starik is an Eizenkot clone: the Chief of Staff grew up in the peripheral area of Israel, in Eilat, while Starik grew up in a similar environment – in Dimona. Eizenkot had risen through the ranks of the Golani Infantry Brigade, while Starik spent his career in the Paratrooper Brigade and subsequently in the Givati Infantry Brigade, serving in every possible field command position. Starik had never served in the Quirya compound (the IDF General Staff center) with the exception of a significant tenure as Head of the IDF Operations Department. He came to know Eizenkot personally while serving as commander of the IDF Galilee Formation with Eizenkot, who at that time was serving as the commander of the IDF Northern Command, as his immediate superior. Starik is not an unusual member of the IDF General Staff of 2017. The generals commanding the IDF Southern and Central commands, Eyal Zamir and Ronnie Numa, are no major orators either.
The German Defense Transaction Fiasco – Chapter 2
Away from media attention, another major defense transaction with Germany is being delayed. Unlike the submarine transaction, this time Israel (more precisely IAI) is the seller rather than the buyer.
The scope of this transaction is not less than US$ 645 million, and the product in question is IAI's giant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Heron, along with an extensive range of state-of-the-art systems these UAVs may be fitted with, made by the various Israeli defense industries.
It is ironic that Germany is currently Israel's best friend on the European continent. The party causing the delay in the UAV transaction is not Germany but the USA. The Americans have been exerting extreme pressures worldwide in an attempt to promote their own defense industries. The General Atomics Corporation (probably with the backing of US government elements) has been leading the opposition against IAI's mega transaction with Germany. General Atomics had offered their Predator UAVs, which lost the competition against IAI's Heron UAVs. The Americans are currently claiming that the tender was flawed, and the courts held the fulfillment of the transaction with Israel until July.
The transaction with IAI remains signed, sealed and valid, but it is feared that by next autumn the Germans might elect a new government that turns out to be less sympathetic toward Israel, and things will continue to deteriorate.
